The stuff you should know
⏰ Round 3’s World Cup Fantasy deadline is Wednesday, 24th June, 20:00 BST.
👀 The 26/27 Premier League fixtures are out. We’ll discuss them today.
🤝 Liverpool sign winger Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna.
🏅 Lionel Messi becomes the World Cup's all-time leading goalscorer.
6️⃣ Cristiano Ronaldo becomes the first player to score at six World Cups.
🤝 Keep reading for a solid World Cup Fantasy Round 3 Wildcard.
Alright?
Just when you thought there couldn’t be any more football than the current amount of football, the final round of group stage fixtures means we’ll get six games of football per day until Saturday.
It’s like Christmas - but with even more football.
And the thing is - and bear with us here - you don’t even have to be playing fantasy football to enjoy it. Don’t get us wrong, fantasy football obviously helps, but the World Cup has been remarkably fun regardless of whether the pixels on your screen display fictional points after a goal or not. Which is quite the feat.
Still, our job at Lazy is to talk about the fantasy-enhanced type of football. The sort your Nan can’t quite grasp. Wait, so it’s all pretend?
No, Grandma, it’s not pretend. It’s very bloody real.
With that in mind, here’s your briefing for the definitely-not-pretend Round 3 of World Cup Fantasy, as well as some discussion about next season’s fixture schedule.
The Premier League fixtures are out.
Summary for the Lazy: The 26/27 fixtures are confirmed. Man United, Newcastle, Liverpool and Brentford have particularly good fixtures, according to Opta’s fixture difficulty rating.
FPL managers have to feed off scraps over the summer. One such scrap - a relatively meaty one in the grand scheme of things - is the World Cup. In the scrap rankings, that’s a solid half-eaten KFC family bucket.
The Premier League fixture release is another scrap. This is less nourishing - maybe a mostly-empty packet of Hula-Hoops with a few left still intact. Still, it’ll keep us going for another week or two.
The fixtures.
Image from Opta.
Friends-of-the-newsletter Opta have published a fixture difficulty chart for the first five fixtures, which is a nice horizon for FPL managers.
As you can see, it’s Man United that has the best start. Hull (A) and Ipswich (H) in their first two gameweeks are particularly juicy.
It’s pretty good reading for FPL managers. Of the teams with less-favourable fixtures, it’s only really Bournemouth that offers serious FPL interest.
How does this impact your Gameweek 1 team?
How these fixtures affect your Gameweek 1 team largely depends on your early-season strategy.
For example, if you’re planning a Wildcard for the first international break (which takes place after Gameweek 5), you only need to focus on optimising a team for Gameweeks 1-5.
If, however, you want to save your Wildcard for later, you’ll need to consider a longer fixture horizon when choosing your Gameweek 1 team.
It’s important you don’t get seduced by the short-termism of a plum Gameweek 1 fixture, too. This is a classic trope. For example, at least one person in your mini-league is going to triple-up on Sunderland for their opening fixture against Ipswich, but Sunderland’s first five fixtures are actually quite challenging.
What does it mean for the Gameweek 1 template?
Jargon alert: The ‘template’ is a team comprised of the most-owned players in the game. We’ll use it regularly in the build-up to Gameweek 1.
Put fixtures in front of an FPL manager, and they’ll start building a team in their head involuntarily. It’s an automatic response. It’s like trying not to think of Pep’s bald head when you read the words “Pep’s bald head”.
Player prices aren’t out yet, so we don’t know what’s affordable yet, but clearly players like Bruno Fernandes, Igor Thiago, Erling Haaland, Nico O’Reilly, Gabriel and David Raya will be popular. There’s nothing revolutionary about this - they’re the sort of players who ought to be popular regardless of their fixtures.
Fringe players that might pick up suitors could include Brentford’s Dango Ouattara, Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães, Crystal Palace’s Ismaïla Sarr and Daniel Muñoz and Everton’s Iliman Ndiaye.
Obviously, we’ll discuss this in loads more depth nearer the time. Still, it’s nice to plan ahead.
Round 3’s World Cup fixtures.
World Cup Fantasy: The lay of the land.
Summary for the Lazy: Some teams are on the beach - others will need to field strong line-ups to ensure qualification or a group win. We’ll cover both here.
As we thought would happen, some teams have already secured top spot in their groups. Others have been eliminated. They’re on the proverbial beach, and, given the weather in some World Cup regions, might actually visit one. It’s a great chance to rest key players.
But several teams - perhaps more than we expected at the start of the tournament - still have crucial fixtures to play. They won’t have the luxury of resting their most important players.
Those with a Wildcard will likely use it to primarily target teams that still have something to play for, as their lineups are generally easier to predict. This includes teams still fighting for qualification, as well as already-qualified sides that are battling to secure top spot in their groups.
Rotation risks
The following teams have already won their groups, meaning the outcome of their third match has no impact on their Round of 32 fixture:
Argentina
Germany
Mexico
United States
Meanwhile, Haiti, Jordan, Tunisia, Turkey & Panama are already eliminated, which is devastating for the 3 fantasy managers who own players from those nations.
10 teams to target
The following teams need results to determine their qualification places.
Brazil (vs Scotland): Need a win and to stay ahead of Morocco on goal difference to finish first in Group C.
Morocco (vs Haiti): Can still win Group C if they better Brazil's result or overturn the goal-difference gap.
Egypt (vs Iran): A win secures first place in Group G.
Belgium (vs New Zealand): Need a win and for Egypt to drop points, with goal difference potentially deciding first place in Group G.
Netherlands (vs Tunisia): Level on points and goal difference with Japan, with first place in Group F still up for grabs.
Ivory Coast (vs Curaçao): A win would all but guarantee second place in Group E and qualification.
Senegal (vs Iraq): Must win to have a chance of qualifying as a third-place team from Group I.
England (vs Panama): Need a win and to stay ahead of Ghana on goal difference to finish first in Group L.
Spain (vs Uruguay): A win secures first place in Group H. A draw would likely be enough, barring a major swing in goal difference.
France (vs Norway): Already qualified, but first place in Group I is still at stake.
World Cup Wildcarding.
Summary for the Lazy: Just look at the team.
Remember, those of you using a Wildcard this week can effectively treat it as a Free Hit, because we’ll all get unlimited free transfers ahead of the Round of 32 next week.
Here’s a passable draft with a strong emphasis on players from the teams with something to play for.
Differential corner.
Summary for the Lazy: Just look at the team, again.
It’s been a tournament for top players so far. Those who have chased the 2-point Scouting Bonus at the expense of players like Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland have been emphatically punished.
But this week presents a unique opportunity to target both favourable fixtures and the Scouting Bonus. It’s ripe for the hipsters.
The squad below comes in $16.4m under budget, but is packed with sub-5% owned players to get the differential juices flowing:
The best captain(s) for Round 3.
In Round 3, the final fixtures in each group kick off simultaneously. That means both Group A matches will start at the same time, both Group B matches at the same time, and so on.
As a result, the number of captaincy switches available is effectively halved compared to previous rounds, so be sure to factor this into your captaincy strategy.
Group B: Džeko vs QAT, or Embolo vs CAN
Group C: Hakimi vs HAI, or Vinícius Júnior vs SCO
Group E: Diallo vs CUR
Group F: Gakpo vs TUN
Group I: Mbappé vs NOR, or Mané vs IRQ
Group H: Yamal vs URU
Group G: Salah vs IRN, or De Bruyne vs NZL
Group L: Kane vs PAN
Group J: Messi vs JOR
Oh, and before anyone kicks off, we do know our ABCs. The fixtures are listed chronologically rather than alphabetically. Blame FIFA (or AFFI, as they should rightfully be called).
You’ve probably already grasped the cadence by now, but for the avoidance of doubt, we’ll be back next week.
Stay lazy,
The LazyFPL Team.