The stuff you should know
⏰ The World Cup Fantasy quarter-final deadline is Thursday 9th July, 21:00 BST.
🔁 You can now select up to 5 players per country and make 4 free transfers.
🏠 All host nations (USA, Canada & Morocco) were eliminated in the Round of 16.
🤝 Fulham appoint Álvaro Arbeloa as their new manager.
💰 Spurs confirm the £100m signing of Sandro Tonali.
⚽️ Newcastle sign Ivorian winger Bazoumana Touré; Everton sign Tyrique George from Chelsea.
🔴 Man United agree £50m deal with Chelsea for midfielder Andrey Santos [multiple sources].
Alright?
It’s officially the business end of the World Cup. Iron your suit (or your tuxedo, if you’re French), crack out your laptop and tell LinkedIn you’re ready to “lock in”.
The integrity of the entire sport might have been called into question since we last spoke, but the fantasy version of the tournament remains untouched by the nefarious hand of politics. Somehow, despite inconsistent rules, leaked chips, and serious bugs, World Cup Fantasy emerges as the least tarnished of FIFA’s games.
With only eight teams remaining (France, Spain, Argentina, England, Switzerland, Belgium, Morocco and Norway), this newsletter will be shorter than previous instalments. Still, we’ll cover transfer strategy, captaincy and filter through the silt in search of some differential gold.
Let’s circle back.
World Cup Quarter-final fixtures.
End game.
Summary for the Lazy: Load up on players from the favourites this week, then enjoy having plenty of free transfers for the final two rounds.
Current World Cup win probabilities:
🇫🇷 France: 34.8%
🇪🇸 Spain: 22.2%
🇦🇷 Argentina: 20.0%
🏴 England: 16.7%
🇳🇴 Norway: 5.9%
🇧🇪 Belgium: 2.9%
🇲🇦 Morocco: 2.9%
🇨🇭 Switzerland: 2.9%
If the bookmakers are right, Round 8 will feature France, Spain, Argentina and England in the Final and the Third-Place Playoff.
Are we expecting everything to go exactly to plan? Of course not. This World Cup has been full of surprises. There’s probably still a 2.9% chance that USA win.
But from a planning perspective, loading up on players from the four favourites, while sprinkling in a few high-quality picks from the other four nations, is the safest approach.
The key reason is the transfer structure. You'll receive 5 free transfers before the semi-finals and 6 free transfers before the final round. Every team that reaches the semi-finals is guaranteed another match thanks to the Third Place Playoff, meaning all four semi-finalists will also feature in the final round.
In other words, the free transfers from this point onwards should be more than enough to navigate the tournament without needing to plan too far ahead now.
Scouting for bonus.
Transfers this week will largely depend on which players were eliminated from your squad, how much money you have available, and your overall team structure.
So, rather than telling you to buy someone like Mbappé, we've picked out a handful of players with Scouting Bonus potential who could provide a bit of extra value if they remain below the 5% ownership threshold.
We've italicised the players that are closest to the 5% threshold. They're either already hovering around the 5% cutoff or are likely to see a surge in ownership before the deadline.
Goalkeepers
Kobel vs ARG
Nyland vs ENG
Defenders
James vs NOR
Digne vs MAR
Rodríguez vs SUI
Diop vs FRA
Midfielders
Baena vs BEL
Gordon vs NOR
Saka vs NOR
Barcola vs MAR
Forwards
Embolo vs ARG
The best captain(s) for the Quarter-finals.
We're down to just four captaincy rotations now.
Enjoy them while they last. From the semi-finals onwards, we'll be down to just two. Consider this FIFA's way of putting us on a nicotine patch before we're forced back to one captain a week in FPL.
The template rotation this Round is likely to be:
Mbappé vs MAR
Lamal vs BEL
Kane vs NOR
Messi vs SUI
If you're chasing in your mini-league, this is one of the last opportunities to be aggressive. Instead of following the template, you could roll the dice on a few differential captaincy picks before eventually landing on Messi if needed:
Olise vs MAR
Cucurella vs BEL
Bellingham vs NOR
Messi vs SUI
It's a high-risk, high-reward approach, particularly if it means going against Mbappé in the first match. The upside is obvious, but the downside even more so, so proceed with the sort of caution you’d use whilst traversing the edge of a steep precipice.
Other stuff we found interesting.
Seventeen players are on a yellow card and will miss the semi-final if they pick up a yellow in the quarter-finals. With six free transfers next round, this shouldn’t impact your decision-making.
The semi-finals kick off next Tuesday, so you’ll hear from us before then. Don’t say you haven’t been warned.
Stay lazy,
The LazyFPL Team.