The Professor Previews: Gameweek 17

From Saturday (December 20th) onwards, there will only be 6 days without a Premier League fixture until January 8th.

To put it in FPL terms, from December 20th, there are five gameweek deadlines across the following 17 days.

With a Christmas turkey slice of luck on our side, this is usually the period in which engaged managers have the biggest opportunity to jump up in rank.

And that’s the plan, reader.

The constant messages.

The awkward replies.

The guilt.

Loved ones asking what you want for Christmas, again and again, while you give the same useless answer every time.

“Oh, I don’t mind. Anything is fine.”

I know this position well, because I’m currently stuck in it too.

But for LazyFPL subscribers who really have no idea what to ask for this Christmas, there is now an answer. Your LazyFPL Premium subscription can be topped up as a gift.

Here is how it works:

If you are already an annual subscriber, billing will be paused, and the gifted 12-month period will begin once your current subscription ends.

If you are on a monthly plan, billing will pause at the end of your current billing month, and the gifted 12-month period will begin immediately after.

And that’s it. No more trying to figure out what to ask for. No more unwanted socks. And no more pretending you love whatever it is you end up getting.

Oh, and if you’re that person who doesn’t know what to get for your FPL loving family member/friend, then of course, you can gift this to others, too.

Summary for the Lazy: it’s a hold for me

My faith in double Arsenal defence continues, and while I know other double Arsenal defence owners out there may be starting to wilt, we have simply been unlucky so far.

Since Gabriel’s injury (the moment when many of us went from triple Arsenal defence to double Arsenal defence):

Feed those numbers into a Poisson model, and the most likely outcome is three clean sheets (71.9% chance of that occurring).

The odds on what actually happened?

One clean sheet across the above fixtures for Arsenal, at a probability of just 5%.

And if you’re a Timber owner, it somehow gets worse. That one clean sheet came against Brentford, the game in which he was rested and only played 46 minutes.

So no clean sheet there, either.

This is peak FPL.

Even when you get it right, you can still get it wrong.

I’m still an Arsenal defence believer, and until the data tells me otherwise, I’ll be on Raya and Timber.

Summary for the Lazy: Lazy Pundit Ross walks us through how he believes AFCON will impact Manchester United assets.

Manchester United are losing three players to AFCON.

Like me, you may own two of their assets and be wondering how that will impact the team going forward.

So let’s have a look.

With Amad, Mbeumo, and Mazraoui leaving the squad for AFCON, the default expected forward and midfield line would be:

Cunha - Sesko - Mount

Dorgu - Casemiro* - Bruno - Dalot

*Casemiro is suspended against Aston Villa, so would likely be replaced by Mainoo or Ugarte.

This is obviously a worse team, but I don't think it's suddenly terrible. Mbeumo and Amad are big losses, but Mount has been playing well (although probably isn't a good FPL pick), and Dorgu is fine.

But it might not be as simple as plugging other players into the same system.

United have been practicing with four at the back in training (confirmed by Amorim himself), and we saw a bit of this against Bournemouth. United appeared to play with a four in possession, then the usual back five out of possession.

The main change was Amad. He played further forward than usual and had more freedom to drift into the box when United were in possession.

This puts a bit of a spanner in the works when it comes to predicting how Manchester United’s attack will operate in the weeks going forward.

Why change Amad’s role in the team right before he leaves? Was it a one-game plan to exploit a specific Bournemouth issue, or is it something Amorim wants to build into the team more permanently?

To compound matters, the other two players who have the profile to play this role outside of Amad are Mbeumo and Mazraoui, and they’re also going to AFCON.

As above, Amorim has spoken about a move to a back four, and we have seen signs of that in-game. It may be that, due to a lack of an Amad-esque profile in the squad during the AFCON period, the team is forced into a back four formation to make the most of what is available.

This, and the return of Sesko, could mean Cunha moves over to left inside forward (a position he has flourished in previously), or have a new role entirely within the 4-3-3.

Only time will tell, and it may even be the case that Amorim sticks with the 3-4-3 and plugs in Dorgu and Dalot to the wingback roles in an attempt to keep everything relatively familiar.

I wouldn’t chastise you for using this uncertainty to justify selling Manchester United players this gameweek.

But their attack is strong, and players like Cunha and Bruno aren’t at a premium price.

And that’s why I’m holding them.

Summary for the Lazy: Cherki in.

As per the above Arsenal section, I’m still fine with owning two of their defenders indefinitely at the moment. And I’m patiently awaiting the return of Gabriel.

So, my transfer this week.

Cherki is in.

As we went over in the previous edition, Cherki’s data is excellent, and Manchester City’s fixtures are fantastic.

And away from all the data and statistics, just me talking to you as fleshy human football fans, you know how sometimes you watch a player and just go, “well, he’s better than everyone else”.

That’s Rayan Cherki.

Usually, what would happen now would be a long-winded conversation on how we can’t get Cherki in due to Pep Roulette. But with Marmoush off to AFCON, and Doku and Bobb injured, there’s not really anyone to play ahead of Cherki at the moment.

And when an opportunity presents itself like this in FPL, you take it.

Disclaimer: For anyone already on a Manchester City triple up, O’Reilly, Foden, and Haaland, stick with that. It’s already tremendous and may outscore the Cherki route.

So I’ve been in a fixed state of turmoil this week, trying to work out who I remove to bring in Cherki.

The players who can potentially make way are Cunha and Minteh - I don’t really want to lose either. But needs must.

Despite his returns dropping off in recent weeks, which is completely normal and fine for a £6.1m midfielder, his underlying data is holding steady.

He remains Brighton’s main creator and the player they look to advance the team into the final third.

He’s a touch off a 0.5 expected goal involvement player this season, which is tremendous for his price point.

And then there’s his upcoming fixtures:

A quick benching in gameweek 18, and you have about as good as you could hope for in terms of a fixture run.

Minteh remains a top pick.

But Cherki at £6.5m in this Manchester City team, with competition unavailable, is better.

So let’s look at removal option #2.

Cunha shots since returning to the Manchester United starting 11:

That is ludicrous, reader.

For those who gambled on Cunha with me, we’ve been severely unlucky that things haven’t gone even better than they have.

In the above section, Ross explored the uncertainty surrounding Manchester United due to AFCON, but finished on a point I agree with.

Even without Mbeumo and Amad, Cunha and Bruno are still good picks.

Compared to Minteh, Cunha has the more difficult immediate fixtures, but is the better option long-term.

And then we have squad balance to consider.

If I removed Cunha this week, I'd have to bench Minteh in 18 (Arsenal away), which would mean playing Richards in a 4-4-2, which I’m not overly enamoured with.

Also, Cunha’s fixture in 18 is against Newcastle (H). A Newcastle team that have just lost Dan Burn and Lewis Hall to injuries, joining Botman, Trippier, and Krafth on the Newcastle defensive treatment table.

I want Cunha in that fixture. And then I imagine everyone wants him for Manchester United’s gameweek 19-21 run:

So Cunha is staying.

And despite the amazing fixtures, Minteh is out.

I cannot turn my nose up at Cherki given the circumstances (injuries + upcoming fixtures). I want to triple up on City, and he’s my guy.

It hurts, but it’s Minteh → Cherki

I haven’t made the move yet, and I have £0.0 leeway, so if there’s any sign of price movements from either of them, I will make the move early.

Summary for the Lazy: He’s a doubt for the weekend. But wait for more information.

Thiago has now missed all three midweek games for Brentford this season:

Since 2023, Thiago has missed nearly a year of football (322 days) due to various knee injuries and, as such, made only one start for Brentford last season. It may be that Brentford are continuing to manage his workload to avoid reaggravating a longstanding issue.

While this fills me with optimism, in that he’s potentially just being managed and will likely start on the weekend as he has done previously this season, it fills me with dread for the upcoming Christmas fixture congestion.

I’ll be leaving this one as late as possible and hoping for good news ahead of the deadline.

And that is us.

I want to reiterate that if I had O’Reilly, Foden, and Haaland, there is no way I would be moving any of them out to make room for Cherki.

Cunha, Minteh, and Cherki are all excellent options for anyone looking to move on from Mbeumo this gameweek.

Oh, and if you still have your Triple Captain chip, play it this week on Haaland, just like James Cooper is.

See you in the next one.

Professor