Alright?

It’s Day 2 of this week’s newsletter-a-thon, in which we’re breaking-and-entering into your inbox every weekday until Friday. We’re sort of like your manager at work, but instead of chasing project deadlines, we’re chasing the Gameweek 1 deadline. Ours is obviously far more critical to your overall life success.

Tuesday was named after Týr, the Germanic God of war, single combat and law. So naturally, it makes sense to look at which of the premium midfielders will emerge victorious from the fiercest battleground of them all: the battleground of FPL value. This is almost certainly what Týr would’ve wanted.

Choose your weapon and say goodbye to your loved ones: there are rarely any survivors in this game.

Summary for the lazy: It’s Bryan Mbeumo.

Premium usually means “above £9.5m” in FPL, but for the purposes of this email, the threshold is £8.0m or more. It’s fine though, because this is fantasy football: It’s all pretend anyway.

There are three £8.0m midfielders this season: Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Morgan Gibbs-White.

Let’s stare at them until they tell us all their secrets.

Bryan Mbeumo | Man United | 29% owned.

Of all of the £8.0m midfielders, Mbeumo had the highest expected goal involvements (16.97) last season. From this, he managed to conjure 11 goals and three assists, which was a slight underperformance, though still a decent tally for 2,611 minutes.

He starts the season off the back of some good preseason form, with three goals and one assist from six preseason games (none of which he played 90 mins).

But the thing that really gets us excited about Bryan is that Benjamin Šeško, Man United’s first-choice forward, is still injured. He hasn’t played a minute of preseason and, rather than picking Joshua Zirkzee in his place, Carrick has usually opted for Mbeumo upfront.

Combined with his fixtures to start the season - Hull (A), Ipswich (H), Everton (A) - it’s easy to see why he’s nearly 30% owned.

We like him. He’s particularly appealing if you’re not going for Bruno Fernandes, who we’ll get to shortly.

Matheus Cunha | Man United | 11.5% owned.

Cunha doesn’t really have a place in many FPL teams, largely because he costs the same amount as Mbeumo, who most managers (rightly, we reckon) prefer.

His numbers last season - 10 goals and four assists from 10.26xGI and 2,493 minutes - were similar to Mbeumo’s, but an overperformance of his stats. If there’s one thing you need to know about FPL managers, it’s that they hate overperforming (in all aspects of life).

After three goals in the World Cup, he’s had a few preseason games with Man United, but hasn’t done a great deal. One to keep an eye on, but it’s hard to justify the £8.0m outlay at the moment.

Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 11.8% owned.

If we were Gibbs-White (we’re not, btw, but y’know - if we were), we’d be a little narked about our current ownership. He’s probably got bigger concerns - like not getting picked for the World Cup - but this has gotta be right up there.

He had 15 goals and four assists from 3,101 minutes and 13.72xGI last season. Also an overperformance, but his underlying numbers were still pretty good.

He starts the season with a mixed bag of fixtures. Leeds (H) is okay, but after that he has Liverpool (A), Spurs (H), Aston Villa (A) and Coventry (H). And whilst many Nottingham Forest fans are bullish about their prospects under Glasner, Elliot Anderson’s Man City-branded football boots will be hard to fill.

In many respects, Cunha and Gibbs-White are parallels. Both are around 11% owned, both overperformed their underlying data last season, and both feel just a little too pricey to start the season with.

Summary for the lazy: It’s Antoine Semenyo, at least to start with.

This section could be called “Do you pick Antoine Semenyo, Cole Palmer or Bukayo Saka?”, but that’s too cumbersome for a title, even for our incredibly cumbersome standards.

But essentially, that’s the question this section seeks to answer.

Antoine Semenyo | Man City | £8.5m | 27% owned.

It looks like Semenyo is being deployed in a wider role for Man City, which has seen him bag plenty of assists (5, if we’re being precise) and no goals during preseason. He did pick up 0.65xGI in the Community Shield game, and drew a decent save out of David Raya.

17 goals and six assists last season came from just 14.21xGI, which is a significant overperformance. But Semenyo appears to be nailed to start for arguably the best attacking side in the league, and that tends to yield opportunities.

It’s this confidence in his minutes and role that makes us enthusiastic about his early-season prospects.

Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | £9.5m | 10% owned.

Saka is still returning from a World Cup campaign in which he never really looked 100% fit. He featured in the Community Shield, but didn’t start.

Clearly, Saka is a very good player. Vast is the graveyard of FPL managers who have underestimated him in previous seasons. But £9.5m ought to buy you peace of mind, particularly when there are so many midfielders more likely to play 90 minutes.

A good pick eventually, but one who needs to be monitored before investment.

Cole Palmer | Chelsea | £9.5m | 10.7% owned.

Palmer has had a summer to rest, but for all of Chelsea’s promise in preseason, he only managed a single assist. They scored six goals in their last two friendlies, and he wasn’t involved in any of them.

It’s preseason, and as always with preseason insight, we ask you to pass the salt so that we can add a pinch to it. Still, questions are being asked about Palmer’s talismanic status in Alonso’s Chelsea. With the arrival of Morgan Rogers and João Pedro’s prolific preseason form, perhaps Palmer isn’t the focal point he once was.

Time will tell. Chelsea start the season with Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (A), Hull (H) and Brentford (A). If he shows good form in the first three fixtures, it’s going to be hard to ignore him ahead of Hull at home.

Consensus is hard to find in football, but FotMob’s GOAT status is unchallenged. It’s categorically the best live score app in the game, which is why, whenever we mention it in these newsletters, readers actually thank us for bringing it to their attention.

With live goal updates, commentary, stats, heatmaps, shotmaps, defensive contributions, and even a live FPL points toggle (including bonus, ofc), it quite literally does it all.

Best of all, you can set notifications for specific players and teams. So if you want a “ding” every time your FPL picks do something noteworthy (unlikely, but you never know), FotMob has got you covered.

Oh, and it’s totally free.

Summary for the lazy: The risk of not owning him is significant, but this isn’t a cut-and-dry decision.

There’s only one truly “premium” midfielder this season, which means he gets his own section.

Before we get into his stats, let’s acknowledge arguably the most important number: Bruno is 48.6% owned at the time of writing. Not owning him is a risk.

He managed 23.07xGI last season - the highest of all midfielders. He overperformed those stats with 33 attacking returns, and a massive 24 of those were assists.

Overperforming expected assists is usually a bit more concerning than overperforming expected goals. That’s because, whilst scoring low-xG chances could just indicate that you’re a better-than-average finisher, with assists, the chance is out of your hands once you’ve played the pass.

In other words, Bruno benefited significantly last season from clinical colleagues. How many of us can say that?

Still, there’s a lot to like about him. He’s nailed in a side that will, as we’ve already covered, start the season with excellent fixtures. He’s also on penalties (he missed two in preseason, but he keeps duties as far as we know) and the majority of set-pieces.

His shot map from last season is also worth a look:

Bruno averaged just 0.13xG per shot last season, which means most of his shots were relatively speculative. He only scored five goals from open play.

Naysayers are concerned about his lack of goal threat; staunch owners insist that everything good from Man United is channelled through him.

Ultimately - and we hope you’re sat down for this one - FPL is about scoring as many points as possible. If you feel like the ~£4.0m you’ll save on choosing a mid-priced midfielder over Fernandes can be reinvested profitably, you should make that choice.

For us, his ownership and his ability to haul in those initial fixtures means the risk of not owning him is too great. A decent proportion of his owners will captain him, too, which will only amplify the pain if you don’t own him and he does what he did so often last season.

But he may not be a season-keeper. As fixtures begin to shift, players like Saka and Palmer might well be worth a look, particularly if they get off to a good start.

So, let’s summarise all of this.

Mbeumo and Fernandes: Two good premium midfielders to start the season with, given their incredibly kind fixtures and likelihood of minutes. Assess after Gameweek 3.

Cunha: He’s an interesting differential for the first few gameweeks, but it feels like £8.0m can be better spent.

Gibbs-White: One to monitor, but it’s a bold manager who starts the season with him. If his underlying stats look good in the early gameweeks under Glasner, he could well be worth a look for Coventry (H) in Gameweek 5.

Semenyo: He has a nice set of opening fixtures, including home games against Bournemouth, Coventry and Sunderland in his first five. Looks incredibly likely to get plenty of minutes, and feels worthy of his 27% ownership.

Saka: A very interesting option from Gameweek 6 and beyond. Definitely worth considering if you’re planning to Wildcard during the first international break (after Gameweek 5). He has Leeds (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (A) and Hull (H) between Gameweeks 6-10.

Palmer: Lots will target him for his fixtures from Gameweek 4, where he plays Hull (H), Brentford (A) and Bournemouth (H). Chelsea don’t have any European commitments, and it’s easy to imagine a world in which Palmer quickly makes himself worth the £9.5m price tag. Have a loose plan to get him in.

We’re back here tomorrow with our Gameweek 1 draft. It might just be the first ever email we’ve sent on a Wednesday, so apologies in advance if we’re a little disoriented.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.