The best forwards for GW1 ⚽️

🤝 Man United sign 22-year-old striker Benjamin Šeško from RB Leipzig.

🧤 Martin Dúbravka (£4.0m GK) moves to Burnley.

🤦 Howe “can’t involve” Alexander Isak at the moment.

🔵 Everton sign midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.0m).

🤕 James Maddison is expected to miss most of the season with a torn ACL.

😫 Rodri suffers a setback and won’t return until mid-September.

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Alright?

You’re reading the final instalment of our pre-season bulletins, which means you’ve made it through the long, barren summer. Give yourself a pat on the back or crack: dealer’s choice.

This is always a special time, predominantly because it’s one of the few times in the season that hope and excitement outweigh the inevitable crushing disappointment to come.

In an effort to stave off that disappointment for as long as possible, today we’re looking at the best forwards ahead of Gameweek 1. It pairs well with our midfielder and defender analysis from previous weeks.

At the end of the newsletter, we’ll share our provisional Gameweek 1 team, along with all of the key news that’s happened this week.

Shall we do this? Oh, go on then.

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Summary for the lazy: Avoid this price bracket.

Reliable budget forwards are hard to come by this pre-season. Marc Guiu (£4.5m and 12% owned) is the most popular pick, but beware.

The theory is that his loan move from Chelsea to Sunderland means he’s way more likely to get minutes now.

A strong word of warning: Guiu didn’t feature in Sunderland's final two preseason friendlies. One friendly was for the A team (expected to start in Gameweek 1), and the other friendly was for the B team (those likely to ride the bench this season).

Guiu was in neither team. Word on the street is that he needs more time to bed in at Sunderland before he’s introduced.

If he doesn’t start for Sunderland in Gameweek 1, he’ll be transferred out en masse. That might result in a price drop - and who wants to be left with a £4.4m forward? Not this chump.

Burnley’s Ashley Barnes (£4.5m) and Leeds’ Patrick Bamford (£5.0m) are also getting some flirtatious glances from FPL managers cruising for bargain forwards, but neither is expected to get many minutes this season.

The top managers are mostly avoiding this price bracket altogether.

Browsing forwards is a bit like looking at houses on Rightmove. As soon as you adjust your price filters even slightly above your comfort zone, it feels like every option is incredible.

If you can stretch to £6.5m and above, the rewards appear to be worth it. We’ll pick one highlight from each price point.

Summary for the lazy: Piroe, Thiago, Strand Larsen, Evanilson, Mateta.

£5.5m | Joël Piroe (Leeds)

Leeds’ Joël Piroe grabbed 26 attacking returns last season (19 goals, eight assists) and appears to be the starting forward for the newly promoted side.

His appeal here is reliable minutes, which is the gauge by which every budget option should be measured. Whilst Beto and Rodrigo Muniz offer more explosive alternatives, explosive isn’t always a good thing (as anyone who’s ever enjoyed a dodgy curry will tell you). Their minutes are far less reliable.

£6.0m | Igor Thiago (Brentford)

Our interest in Igor Thiago isn’t born out of his performances: he’s scored a modest one goal across three starts in Brentford’s pre-season friendlies. But having already said goodbye to Bryan Mbeumo, Yoanne Wissa looks to be leaving Brentford too (though nothing is set in stone).

If that happens, Thiago becomes the default starting striker - a mantle that the likes of Ivan Toney and Wissa have enjoyed being perched upon. West Ham’s Niklas Füllkrug deserves an honourable mention here, too, but we’ve been stung by West Ham’s forwards too many times to put faith in him yet.

£6.5m | Jørgen Strand Larsen (Wolves)

Liam Delap’s two goals in Chelsea’s most recent friendly will win him some suitors, but stiff competition from João Pedro means his minutes are more under threat than Jørgen Strand Larsen’s. The Norwegian has started all four of Wolves’ friendlies and scored…no goals.

Still, he’s capable of scoring in the Premier League and could be on penalties. If you want reliable minutes, he’s your man at £6.5m.

£7.0m | Evanilson

Call Bournemouth a stealth jet, because their players are a little under the radar at the moment. That’s probably because they visit Anfield to start the season, but after that, their fixtures improve. So too do Evanilson’s prospects of another good season.

15 attacking returns last season and near-guaranteed minutes. It’s the best that £7.0m will buy you.

£7.5m | Jean-Philippe Mateta

If the Lion King is to be trusted, Jean-Philippe Mateta means no worries for the rest of your days, which is a bold promise to make to FPL managers (who are, of course, natural-born worriers).

There’s plenty of competition in the £7.5m bracket, including the most popular forward in the game at the time of writing, João Pedro. But Mateta is talismanic for Crystal Palace. Unlike Pedro, he’s on penalties, and is very unlikely to be usurped.

There are only six forwards more expensive than £7.5m, though Benjamin Šeško could yet fall into this bracket too.

Erling Haaland (£14.0m), Alexander Isak (£10.5m), Viktor Gyökeres (£9.0m), Ollie Watkins (£9.0m), Hugo Ekitike (£8.5m) and Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m).

You could make an argument for each, and much still hangs on the movements of Isak, who remains in a press-fuelled purgatory between clubs. Howe has said that the Swede can’t be involved at the moment, which means he’s probably best avoided until there’s more clarity.

Gyökeres and Ekitike are the shiny new toys that have both scored for their new clubs in pre-season. Whilst they lack the cosy familiarity of more proven assets like Watkins and Bowen, they’ll be considered bargains if they can hit the ground running.

Spoiler: The Professor currently has Ekitike in his Gameweek 1 team.

To Haaland or not to Haaland?

At just 20.8% owned at the time of scribbling, Haaland’s ownership has never been so low before Gameweek 1.

Where once the Norse God was a near-necessity, this season he’s losing out to Mohamed Salah in the battle of the £14.0m+ players.

Haaland hasn’t necessarily justified his lofty price tag in recent seasons, but his consistency, combined with his potential for huge returns against virtually any team, means he should never be totally off the menu.

Captaincy is a big consideration here, too. If you’re spending £14.0m on a player, they ought to be your captain most weeks. Where Haaland’s streaky performances might have some would-be owners worried, Salah offered safety in that department last season.

Whether you go for Haaland or not, you should understand that he’s a differential at the moment. For some of you, that’ll mean an exciting opportunity. For managers like The Professor, it means he’s a risky pick until proven otherwise.

If the aim is avoiding the mockery of your mini-league rivals, this front line is fine. It might even prompt a concerned eyebrow raise from opponents stalking your team.

These three are affordable enough to ensure you don’t have to make big sacrifices elsewhere, and should get reliable minutes, penalties and, if we’re really lucky, maybe even a goal or two. Hey - a manager can dream.

So, if we combine our preferred defenders, midfielders and forwards explored over the last few newsletters, we get the following team:

It’s solid, but there’s also £2.5m left over, which gives us room to upgrade if we want to.

This isn’t rocket science. You’ll notice that most of the picks here have the following in common:

- They’re likely to get minutes.
- They’ve demonstrated an ability to perform in the Premier League in previous seasons.
- They’re not huge, risky differentials.

If you want a solid start to the season, these three attributes are the holy triumvirate.

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Teams have been cramming in pre-season friendlies this week like they’re revising for an exam. Here are the highlights:

Crystal Palace 2 - 2 Liverpool

The Community Shield would probably be pissed off to hear that it’s been included in a round-up about friendlies, but alas, it’s not a subscriber to this newsletter, so it’ll never find out.

In an entertaining game, Ismaïla Sarr scored and won the penalty that Jean-Philippe Mateta converted. Florian Wirtz grabbed a rather fortunate assist from Hugo Ekitike’s excellent finish, and Jeremie Frimpong scored a goal by accident.

Mohamed Salah had 26 touches, and one of those was a missed penalty.

Palermo 0 - 3 Manchester City

Man City played their first game since the Club World Cup. Erling Haaland scored one, and Tijjani Reijnders (£5.5m MID) scored two. Rayan Aït-Nouri and James Trafford started.

Arsenal 3 - 0 Athletico Bilbao

Viktor Gyökeres scored his first for Arsenal, Bukayo Saka got a goal and an assist. Kai Havertz completed the win.

Chelsea 4 - 1 AC Milan

Two goals from substitute Liam Delap concluded an impressive performance for Chelsea against a 10-man AC Milan. João Pedro started and scored too. Estêvão looked very good in his 30-minute cameo. Cole Palmer was relatively quiet.

Elsewhere, Maxim De Cuyper (£4.5m DEF) scored his first goal for Brighton, Spurs lost 4-0 against Bayern Munich, and Nottingham Forest failed to score for a fourth consecutive friendly.

Right, we’re back in your inbox on Thursday @18:30 BST, 24 hours ahead of Gameweek 1’s deadline. We’ll be preparing you for Gameweek 1 the only way we know how: with minimal effort and maximum impact.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.