post-GW2 reflections

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The Darwin award 🤦‍♂️

Ivan Toney (£7.1m) is our preferred replacement, assuming you already own Gabriel Jesus (which you do). The Englishman has the fourth-best xA (expected assists) in the Premier League right now, but also has an xG (expected goals) of 0.8. The fact he's on penalties is also a key factor.The best thing about Brentford's talisman is that he's much cheaper than Nunez. That extra £1.9m could go a long way in upgrading other positions.

Budget midfielders.

But statistically, most of you won't have Darwin Nunez.Your problem is likely to be in midfield. Perhaps you're already fed up of Pedro Neto (£5.5m), or maybe Leon Bailey (£5.0m) didn't calcify into the diamond-in-the-rough this very newsletter claimed he could be.Whilst we wouldn't advocate for using a transfer on removing the former quite yet, the latter's time is probably up. The smart move is to consider replacements before his price drops (which will certainly happen before Gameweek 3).Viable alternatives in the £5.0m category are few and far between, but there are a few names that keep popping up.The first is Newcastle's Joe Willock (£5.0m). With a history of scoring goals for the Magpies (8 goals in 14 matches a few seasons ago), Willock has started the 22/23 season well. No £5.0m-or-less midfielder has had as many shots and shots in the box than Willock, and he's also created a big chance already this season.Don't expect fireworks, but this is a player who starts regularly for a team capable of scoring goals. He's been in and amongst it so far.

Josh Dasilva (£4.6m) is proving to be a popular swap for Bailey, freeing up £0.4m in the process. The budget midfielder has scored two in his last two games, and started Brentford's last game. We backed Dasilva in pre-season, but we'd urge caution here. If FPL managers were tasked with having to navigate an Indiana-Jones style cave in search of a top rank, Dasilva would be the poison dart stuck in the skull of the last chump to stand on the wrong floor tile.The Englishman has a combined 94 minutes across the two games, and has been fortunate to score twice. In fact, he has an xG of just 0.07.In other words, the narrative around Dasilva would likely be very different if De Gea had made what should've been a routine save on Saturday.

It's a little left-field, but we'd be remiss if we didn't mention Brighton's Solly March (£5.0m). He has the highest expected goals (0.8) and the highest shots on target (3) amongst all the £5m-or-less midfielders, and has also taken a few corners this season too.It's early, but Erling Haaland and Heung-min Son have had the same number of shots on target. Mohamed Salah has had fewer.If that wasn't enough, he's also created a big chance (for which he earned an assist).

The 400 IQ move.

In terms of points-per-£, defenders are looking the more likely to provide value than their midfield counterparts. 15 defenders priced at £6.0m or less have already scored 10+ points. Only 10 midfielders in the same price bracket have managed that.If you have two free transfers, downgrading Bailey to some cheap bench fodder opens up the opportunity to upgrade one of your defenders, which might be the optimal way to go.

Here are the moves that managers are making so far this week. In case you're interested.

We're going to be pretty active on the Discord chat, so hopefully we'll see you in there. Here's that link again.Cheers,The FPL Tips Team.