🤝 GW33: the essential info ✅

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Gameweek 33’s deadline is Saturday 13th April, 11:00 BST.

⭐️ Double Gameweek 37 has been confirmed.

🤕 Foden subbed in midweek with a dead-leg. He’s a doubt for Gameweek 33.

👀 Trent and Jota are back to training with the team. Salah and Diaz rested midweek too.

🤦‍♂️ Moyes can’t yet give a date for when Bowen might return.

⬇️ Everton deducted a further 2 points.

Keep reading for a pint of lime and soda.

Alright?

As of last weekend, there are now 50,000 LazyFPL subscribers. 50,225 of you, to be exact.

Us lot could theoretically fill Stamford Bridge with 10,000 to spare - presumably the laziest 10,000 that slept through their alarms. It’d be a huge waste of time, money and resources to do that, but y’know, we could.

Here’s the opener to our first ever email, sent in Double Gameweek 28 of the 21/22 season.

Whether you’re new here or you’ve been reading since Oriel Romeu felt like a feasible pick, one thing is for certain: you’re a part of this now. You’re one of us.

There’s a support group in the local community centre every Wednesday. We’ll see you there.

Gameweek 33’s fixtures.

Some girthy fixtures this week. Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool are all at home against beatable opposition. It could be a blood bath, but based on how this season has panned out so far, let’s not get our hopes up.

Double Gameweek 37 confirmed.

Double Gameweek 37 was basically already in the bag, but because the Premier League hadn’t confirmed it, anyone talking about it had to add a caveat.

Now we can remove that caveat. Caveat-free since Gameweek 33.

Here are the teams that play twice:

Chelsea - Nottingham Forest (A) and Brighton (A)
Spurs - Burnley (H) and Man City (H)
Man City - Fulham (A) and Spurs (A)
Brighton - Newcastle (A) and Chelsea (H)
Newcastle - Brighton (H) and Man United (A)
Man United - Arsenal (H) and Newcastle (H)

And here’s Ben Crellin’s latest (and presumably final) spreadsheet:

We’ll get into the meat of this soon, but for those who still have a Wildcard, Double Gameweek 35 will probably be the tent in which you’ll draw up your battle plans for Double Gameweek 37.

If you want to do some preliminary preparation, your team should look blue and white by the DGW37 deadline. Chelsea, Spurs, Man City, Newcastle with a few others sprinkled in.

Three differential teams.

We’re not focusing on individual players this week. Players are privy to injury, suspensions and other aggravating unpredictabilities. But teams aren’t…

…unless you’re Everton or Nottingham Forest, apparently.

There are three teams that should be getting more attention than they currently are. Any of their regular starters could be a potential option for those looking to break the infesting mould.

Differential team 1: Brentford

You know a team’s fixtures are decent when they look like a pint of lime and soda.

Such is the case for Brentford. Here’s how they’ll close the season: Sheffield United (H), Luton (A), Everton (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (H).

And their attacking stats are alright too. They’re 9th for xG since Gameweek 22 - higher than the likes of Chelsea and Man United.

The ever-dangerous Ivan Toney, the clinical Yoane Wissa and the returning Bryan Mbeumo are the trio most likely to benefit from that fixture run.

Differential team 2: Everton

There’s no getting around the fact that Everton have been poor in front of goal this season. Any sincere attempt to ignore that fact would be like polishing a blue turd.

Indeed, no team has scored fewer goals (8) since Gameweek 22 than The Toffees.

With that said, their xG in that time has been nearly double that.

This is a team that, through a combination of poor results and Premier League sanctions, are still toiling away in the doldrums. Crucial games are yet to come; anything is possible.

And Everton do seem to fare well when placed under the cosh. They went on a four-game winning streak after their first points deduction in November, scoring eight goals and conceding none.

Perhaps it’s coincidence. But it’s easy to imagine Sean Dyche rallying the troops, incensed that the Premier League’s punishments are the only opponent he’s faced that can’t be kept out by a wall of meaty English centre-backs.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin might just be coming good at the right time, and Jordan Pickford has returned against lesser opposition pretty consistently this season.

Differential team 3: Manchester United

Manchester United didn’t used to be a differential team. Marcus Rashford, Luke Shaw and Bruno Fernandes have, at various moments, been FPL stalwarts.

Those days are gone, but many of the players remain.

Bournemouth (A), Sheffield United (H), Burnley (H) and Crystal Palace (A) comprise their next four, which is a nice run, particularly for a team that, despite their struggles, have just scored five goals in their last two games against tough opposition.

They’ve definitely been overperforming (their attacking stats have been poor), but a five-game run that saw them face Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool has now come to an end. The path ahead looks much rosier.

Bruno Fernandes has five attacking contributions from his last six games, and no Premier League goalkeeper has more saves than Andre Onana.

Alejandro Garnacho isn’t exactly a differential, but his 11% ownership is low enough that he’ll move the needle if you own him.

Some football analysis from Harvard.

As you already know, this newsletter is incredibly highbrow.

So it’s only natural that we’d feature analysis from Harvard’s esteemed publications.

Harvard did a study in 2018 to determine whether relegation-threatened teams play better towards the end of the season. They studied 100 struggling clubs.

The following is a sentence taken from it:

“There is incredibly strong evidence to conclude that teams fighting relegation start improving their performance at the end of the season in a last ditch effort to avoid the drop.”

The average points improvement is +0.22 per game. Not exactly game-changing, but intriguing nonetheless.

You can read the whole thing here.

It’s worth remembering this as we approach the run-in. Teams still battling to avoid the drop are usually harder to beat. Fixture difficulty may not be as it seems.

What are the top managers doing this week?

Next gameweek is a double. 50ml, no mixer. Get it down ya.

Top managers are, as they have been for the last few gameweeks, using free transfers to prepare for it.

Liverpool and Arsenal players remain the priority. Wolves and Crystal Palace players tempt. None of this is new to you.

It’s boring, it’s conventional, it’s safe. Frankly, it’s darn right lazy. But that’s how the best managers tend to play the game.

The best captain for Gameweek 33.

Imagine labouring over this one in the first half of the season. Erling Haaland will play Luton at the Etihad, and that used to be enough.

But just like a boring speech at a wedding, we have to acknowledge the fringe guests too.

Mohamed Salah sits on the table of weird, anonymous cousins who will inevitably take their shirts off on the dancefloor later on. When he’s fit he’s a candidate, but of the cohort of mid-table teams, Crystal Palace are invariably amongst the strongest defensively. Their recent defensive stats are top 5.

Phil Foden is your schoolfriend’s boyfriend who you haven’t actually met yet, but who got an invite anyway because he moonlights as a DJ. He has a dead leg and was subbed mid-week. It’s unclear whether he’ll be fit for Gameweek 33, but the mere presence of a question mark makes it all the more likely that he’ll be rested ahead of their crucial Champions League fixture next Wednesday.

Kevin De Bruyne is part of the Belgian cohort on your partner’s side who you assumed would politely decline the begrudging invite but who, against everyone’s wishes, was the first to RSVP. He’s the most-transferred-in player this week after his pair of worldies in Gameweek 32, and was an unused sub against Real Madrid.

Still, it’s Erling Haaland - the shunned ex-husband who we just can’t quit - who edges it. He’s more assured of a start and the bookies have backed him emphatically.

The Professor’s Team.

Another small green arrow (297k to 278k). The current plan is to remove Kieran Trippier and bring in Andy Robertson.

Erling Haaland get’s the armband.

Here’s his team if he makes that move - it’s built with Fantasy Football Hub’s AI-powered MyTeam tool. It suggested Trippier out too. Try it here and you’ll be helping us out.

The key stats for Gameweek 33.

Look at those Erling Haaland odds.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• Ollie Watkins is the first player this season to hit 200 FPL points.

• Arsenal have kept five Premier League clean sheets in a row as of last weekend, the first team to do it since Liverpool in 2019/20.

• Rodri “needs a rest”, and a rest is planned.

Next Friday. Same time, same place. You know what to do.

Keep an eye on today’s pressers and remember, always stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.