🧠 GW31: the cheat-sheet 🤫

Summary for the lazy

⏰ Gameweek 31's deadline is Saturday 15th April, 11am BST

😐 It's another normal gameweek. No doubles, no blanks.

🤕 Rashford is injured and expected to be "unavailable for a few games".

🔵 Grealish is this week's most popular transfer in.

Stick around to find out whether Grealish is worth the hype.

Alright?

Apparently, we're at "the business end" of the season now.

Usually, "the business end" describes the point at which things become serious. No longer can we afford to piss about. Ties are straightened, brows are furrowed.

In FPL, the opposite is true. The end of the season means that, depending on how well we're doing, we can finally afford to loosen up a little. After a season of adhering to strict, business-like protocol, we're now able to smuggle a few beers into the office and let off some steam.

But how much steam should we let off? Here's an approximate formula that will help:

Take the number of places you'd like to rise. Divide it by 100,000. That's the number of differentials you're allowed in your team.

For example, let's say I'm ranked 500,000th. My aim is a top 100k finish. I need to rise 400,000 places between now and Gameweek 38, which means I can justifiably have four differentials in my team. If you're happy with your rank, don't pick any at all.

There's an obvious caveat that should be pointed out: a rise in ranks isn't guaranteed. You need to pick the right differentials. As of Gameweek 32, we'll be including some in every newsletter.

For now, let's look at Gameweek 31.

FPL chips, but not the ones you're thinking of

We've created a new way to commemorate your best FPL seasons.

Poker chips.

Weighty, tactile, beautiful poker chips that immortalise your best overall ranks.

You know what, it's better if we just show you:

(there are chips for top 1k and top 100k too, as well as chips for mini-league winners)

Full transparency: we sell these. This isn't some third-party seller, this is right from the horse's mouth. Buying these will directly contribute to the running of this newsletter, and they're really bloody nice to own too.They officially launch once the season is over, but we're sending an early batch out to those of you who want to start building your stack sooner. If you order now, you'll get a 20% discount using "MERCH20" at checkout too.

Marcus Rashford out - what should you do?

We don't often give injured players their own section in the newsletter, but Rashford's popularity means he gets one. Just when we thought his career couldn't possibly reach new heights - I'm sure he's dizzy with altitude sickness.

Rashford was withdrawn in the 80th minute against Everton in Gameweek 30.

Man United have been vaguer about the details of his injury than a politician answering questions about his tax returns, but this is what we know:

🤨 it's a "muscle injury" 🤔 he's unavailable for "a few matches"🤷‍♂️ he's expected back for the run-in👀 Ten Hag also added after the Sevilla game that there's "a chance" he could be back for the second leg.

Pretty much every descriptor here is open to interpretation.

There are around 600 muscles in the human body. The dictionary definition of a "few" is "not many but more than one". For some, the run-in has already began. It's almost as if Man United don't want their opponents to know exactly when to expect his return.

The good news is that, regardless of your interpretation of "a few", Rashford probably won't miss too many Premier League games. That's because, between their Europa League and FA Cup commitments, they actually only play one Premier League game between now and 27th April.

That solitary Premier League game just happens to be this weekend, which means 940,000 (and counting) managers have already gotten rid.

Should you join them and sell Rashford?

Plenty of experts have argued that a move to a Man City midfielder makes sense, which is partly why all of your mini-league rivals are suddenly talking about Jack Grealish.

But let's imagine a parallel universe in which Rashford isn't injured, but rather suspended for a single game. If we knew he'd be back for the Spurs game, would we be so quick to sell him? I'd wager we wouldn't.

If there are other players you'd rather get rid of, it might be worth focusing your free transfer on them instead. With his ownership plummeting as I type, Rashford might just be a differential by the time he faces Spurs in a few weeks. That's a rare opportunity, and one that could make benching him for Gameweek 31 a worthy sacrifice.

Lazy summary: Rashford is out, but could only miss one Premier League game. Consider keeping him if you haven't gotten rid already.

Don't roll your transfer this week

If you're playing your Free Hit in Gameweek 32, it would be wasteful to roll your transfer this week.

Why? Well, it's because of a small clause in the Free Hit rules, as explained on the official website:

If you decide to roll your transfer this week, you'll lose it as soon as you play your Free Hit.

Look, you might not need to make any transfers for Gameweek 31, but even so, there's likely still something you can change - an out-of-favour goalkeeper, an unused bench player, James Maddison - that would improve your team ahead of Gameweek 33 (because remember, you're playing your Free Hit in Gameweek 32).

Use it. It's a waste not to.

Lazy summary: if you roll a free transfer this week and then play your Free Hit next week, you'll only have 1 free transfer ahead of Gameweek 33.

Does Jack Grealish deserve the hype?

It feels like everyone is suddenly bringing in Jack Grealish. Previously lauded mostly for his calves, it turns out that the lad can actually play football too; a fact that FPL managers are finally starting to acknowledge.

Here's how he's looked over the last four games.

Four attacking returns in his last four is decent, and his underlying stats suggest he's relatively deserving of his recent goal involvements.

But not everyone is convinced.

With 24 points from his last two games, is this a case of recency bias overpowering common, fantasy-footballing sense? Is Grealish actually a good pick all of a sudden?

Well, probably. As The Professor explained midweek in his second premium newsletter, a lot of this decision comes down to whether or not you still have your Free Hit. If you don't, you shouldn't even be considering him. He won't play in Blank Gameweek 32. Pick an Arsenal midfielder instead.

If you do have your Free Hit, Grealish is a solid pick. We like him mostly because he's as close to being a nailed Man City midfielder as one can be. With Foden still adapting to life without an appendix, Grealish is really the only attacker who can play on the left side. Indeed, he's started every game since Gameweek 20.

A solid chance of starting for Man City is almost always worth the price-tag. In this instance, £7.1m feels like a once-in-a-season bargain.

Lazy summary: if you're Free Hitting in Gameweek 32, Jack Grealish is a decent enough pick at a great price point.

The best captain for Gameweek 31

Yup, it's Haaland at home to Leicester. Don't overthink this.

(Image courtesy of the fantastic RoryPaints.)

The key stats for Gameweek 31

The digits you should know about before Gameweek 31.

The Professor's team

Our resident expert, the Professor, is having a blinder of late.

Pending any significant news, he'll be moving out Raya to bring in Ederson, which means he's holding on to Rashford.

Overall rank: 13,992 Captaincy: Haaland.

His defence has been selected based on clean sheet odds.

Btw, the Prof is using the BetterFPL chrome extension. Like the look of it? Of course you do. Try it for free for a month using the code FPLTIPS.

A spreadsheet you'll actually get excited about

We've created a spreadsheet of every FPL resource we use to put these newsletters together. It includes stuff like the stats website the Professor uses, the must-follow Twitter accounts and the team planning tool we use to navigate blanks and doubles.

Want it? It's yours. All you need to do is get one person to sign up to the newsletter using your unique link. If I've done this correctly, you should find your unique link in a section below.

Other tidbits

• Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Verane both picked up injuries in Man United's midweek clash against Sevilla.

• Luke Shaw is "expected back at short notice" according to Ten Hag. It's unclear whether he'll be ready for Gameweek 31.

• Ben Chilwell was red carded in their Champions League match against Real Madrid, making him more likely to start in the Premier League.

• One of our Premium subscribers has launched a daily newsletter called Pitch Notes. It keeps you in-the-loop about football news and also throws in a few memes too. Go and subscribe.

Lazy conclusions

🧠 don't rush to get rid of Rashford. Consider other areas of weakness in your team first.

🧢 Haaland is this week's best captain.

⛔️ don't roll your transfer this week unless your team is absolutely perfect.

🎁 go to fplchips.com if you want to commemorate your best FPL seasons.

See you next week and remember, stay lazy.The LazyFPL team.