🧠 GW25 - solving the blanks and doubles 🙏

Summary for the lazy

⏰ Gameweek 25's deadline is 18:30 GMT, Friday 24th February

👀 It's both a double and a blank gameweek

⛔️ Brentford, Brighton, Man United and Newcastle will BLANK

🎁 Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool and Wolves will DOUBLE

🤯 A massive Double Gameweek has been announced for Gameweek 29

Stick around to find out why next Tuesday's FA Cup 5th round tie between Fulham and Leeds could make or break your season.

Hello all,

The highly anticipated Dank Gameweek 25 is finally upon us, but as is custom this season, it's been overshadowed by yet another fixtures-gone-wild announcement: this time in the form of a 12-team Double Gameweek in Gameweek 29.

If that doesn't call for a meme, I dunno what does.

The announcement confirms what we already knew: that we now live in a post-player society; a rather absurd state of being in which picking the best players no longer feels like the most important condition for FPL triumph. 

The successful navigation of the fixtures is now the lingua franca of the top managers, and this week's email is an attempt to have you speaking it fluently.

Warning: it's longer than usual. There's a lot to cover.

A free shot at winning up to £10,000

Today's sponsor, Fantasy5, is one I pro-actively got in touch with to ask if they fancied supporting us. That's because:

• I play it every gameweek (it's free to enter and only takes a few seconds)

• Their marketing manager, Simon, is a big FPL fan (he's having a decent season too)

• Anyone who's 18+ and plays FPL will enjoy it (I'll explain why)

Luckily they said yes.

Fantasy5 is kind of like Super6, only instead of predicting football scores (really hard), you have to pick five players who you reckon will exceed their fantasy points target instead (easier). If you succeed, you can win up to £10,000 (if you're based outside of the UK/Ireland, then the prizes and jackpot vary).

The scoring is identical to FPL (with the exception of bonus points) and I've come pretty close once or twice this season already. 

Here's my selection for this week:

As you can see, each player here has a "points target". So if Trossard plays more than 60 minutes and scores a goal (I reckon he will), he'll probably score 7 points (8 if Arsenal can keep a clean sheet) and beat his points target.

If all five of my picks hit their points target, I'll win up to £10k.

Entering a Fantasy5 team is part of my pre-deadline routine: for the sake of a few seconds, it might as well become a part of yours too.

To be totally transparent, even though it's free to enter, if you're in the UK/Ireland you'll need to create an account with BoyleSports to play. That means: 18+ only, please gamble responsibly and, for support, visit begambleaware.org

Double Gameweek 29 announced

Another week, another Double Gameweek announcement. Gameweek 29 will see 12 (yes, 12) teams play twice, making it the biggest double so far this season.

Here are the twelve doubling teams and who they'll play:

Aston Villa - Chelsea (A) and Leicester (A)Bournemouth - Fulham (H) and Brighton (H)Brentford - Brighton (A) and Man United (A)Brighton - Brentford (H) and Bournemouth (A)Chelsea - Aston Villa (H) and Liverpool (H)Leeds - Arsenal (A) and Nottingham Forest (H)Leicester - Crystal Palace (A) and Aston Villa (H)Liverpool - Man City (A) and Chelsea (A)Man United - Newcastle (A) and Brentford (H)Newcastle - Man United (H) and West Ham (A)Nottingham Forest - Wolves (H) and Leeds (A)West Ham - Southampton (H) and West Ham (H)

Blimey. We'll talk more about these fixtures nearer the time, but for now, this massive Double Gameweek 29 will be referenced later in this email. It may be referred to as "DGW29", "The big one" or simply "big bastard", but in each instance, I'm talking about these 12 doubling fixtures. You've been warned.Here's the latest from the restless Ben Crellin.

More on this soon.

Dank Gameweek 25 signals

Big bastard aside, the small matter of what to do ahead of Dank Gameweek 25 needs to be discussed. What moves are managers making?

As a reminder:Arsenal play Leicester (A) and Everton (H)Everton play Aston Villa (H) and Arsenal (A)Liverpool play Crystal Palace (A) and Wolves (H)Wolves play Fulham (A) and Liverpool (A)

Meanwhile, Brentford, Brighton, Man United and Newcastle will blank.

There are three things we're certain of:

• lots of managers will be taking points hits this week.

• lots of managers already have triple Arsenal.

• lots of managers will be targeting Liverpool for their double, particularly given they also double in GW29 now.

The current transfer stats speak for themselves:

The blanking players that are being transferred out here - Trippier, Rashford, Shaw, Fernandes, Pope (whose red card makes no difference to his fixture schedule, btw) etc - could all be highly sought after post-GW25, which means there's a lot of pressure for Liverpool assets to be worth their sacrifice.

Whilst Double Gameweeks are a great excuse for managers to make irresponsible decisions, not taking hits this week could yet be the wiser move. Remember, the aim in FPL is to maximise your points across a season, which sometimes means taking short-term losses for longer-term gains.

Is it a good idea to bring in Liverpool players?

In isolation, Liverpool are, along with Arsenal, one of the more appetising teams to double this gameweek. Whilst Crystal Palace (A) and Wolves (H) might appear to be tough attacking fixtures, the reality is that since the World Cup, Palace have the second-worst expected goals conceded in the league. Wolves are a not-exactly-brilliant 10th.

But the success of a transfer can't be judged on one gameweek alone. Whether or not Liverpool players truly reward their investors will hinge largely on whether they have a fixture in Blank Gameweek 28. If they do, investing in them now will look like an astute move. If they don't, it'll be a headache for anyone who has bet the house on them.

And this, reader, is why the FA Cup 5th round tie between Fulham and Leeds next Tuesday is so important: because if Leeds win, Liverpool will play in Gameweek 28. If Fulham win, Liverpool will blank. The outcome of this innocuous game is, for most, the key variable when it comes to chip strategy.

My advice? I'd invest in a few Liverpool players, but not at the expense of players who I know I'll want back soon after Gameweek 25. There's a tendency to over-estimate the points potential of a double gameweek and, in my view, the Liverpool hysteria is the embodiment of that phenomenon.

That's largely because:

• Liverpool aren't exactly in scintillating form

• The return of players like Firmino and Jota means their attackers are more of a rotation risk

• Their congested fixture schedule is another reason for increased rotation

With these factors in mind, our Liverpool order of merit is Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson.

Everton and Wolves

Look closely in that transferred-in graphic above and you'll notice an unfamiliar name amongst Liverpool's finest: James Tarkowski. 

The logic behind his popularity is thus:- He's scored 24 points since Dyche took over- Everton have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 games- Everton also have the fifth-best xGC (expected goals conceded) since Dyche took over- He even scored a goal on Dyche's debut game in charge

Look, it's a small sample size, but this is the sort of form that gets people excited for a double gameweek. With no blanks on the horizon, we don't hate a punt on an Everton defender, particularly if you're getting rid of some fodder in the process.

Wolves have similarly decent defensive stats, but the fact they have the possibility of a blank in Gameweek 28, and that they'll face Spurs and Newcastle in 26 and 27 respectively, makes their prospects less appealing in the medium-term.

So what should you do this week?

It's always tough to advise on gameweek-specific moves, but here's a key that could help:

Risky, high-upside approach (arguably best for managers with ground to make up): take hits, attack the doubles, invest in Liverpool players, consider Everton defenders and get rid of pricy blankers. Get triple Arsenal if you don't already own.

Conservative, sensible approach (arguably best for managers who want to maintain a lead): consider a couple of the most popular Liverpool players, but avoid destroying your team to get them in. Get triple Arsenal if you don't already own. Keep as many of the good (but blanking) players as you can and don't stress if this week's team isn't optimal. You don't have to win every gameweek. 

Personally, I prefer the latter strategy, because I'm a boring git.

The optimal chip strategy

As mentioned, a lot hinges on the outcome of Fulham vs Leeds on Tuesday night.

The Professor, our resident expert, will be sending out a Premium email the day after that match, outlining his approach to chip usage based on all the information at hand.

If you don't want to miss that, sign-up to Premium here (you'll also get invited into our Premium WhatsApp groups, and you'll be a legend for supporting the newsletter).

At the moment, this is where he's at:

1) Use Free Transfers to navigate Blank Gameweek 282) Use a Wildcard to optimise for Double Gameweek 293) Use a Free Hit to survive Blank Gameweek 324) Use Bench Boost to capitalise on Double Gameweek 34

Today's takeaway? Don't use any this week.

The key stats

The dank data for Gameweek 25.

The best captain for Double Gameweek 25

It's another intriguing week for captaincy, largely because the "best" options won't necessarily be owned by everyone in your mini-league.

Mohamed Salah will probably be the most popular pick amongst active managers. The only people buying Salah and not captaining him are those morons at Wembley Boxpark who spend £8 on a pint only to throw it in the air when England score. If you've spent the money on owning him, you'd be wise to give him the armband too.

Bukayo Saka will also be popular, particularly amongst those who can't stretch to Salah. He's notched an attacking return in 5 of his last 6 games.

But lest we forget that Haaland will visit Bournemouth - a fixture that four or five weeks ago would've been much harder to ignore. He hasn't been mentioned an awful lot when captaincy discussion has arisen, which speaks volumes for his current form.

Wouldn't it just be so FPL of him to outscore Salah and Saka this week though?

Darwin, Alexander-Arnold and Odegaard might also be flirted with, but we'd stick with Salah if you own him, and Saka if you don't.

The Professor's Team

The Prof has practiced what we've preached and played this week relatively conservatively.

Two free transfers used, no hits.

De Bruyne makes way for Salah. Patterson makes way for Tarkowski. Salah gets the armband.

OR: 83k

As always, The Prof is using the BetterFPL chrome extension. Try it free for a month if you fancy, using the code [FPLTIPS].

Other important tidbits

• Joe Gomez could be injured with a hamstring issue.

• Neco Williams might see some game time after Aurier has been ruled out for a few weeks.

• Here's an awesome Venn diagram someone on Reddit made to help you visualise the blanking and doubling teams:

• Brighton vs Palace in GW27 will go ahead despite the rail strikes: it's been moved 24 hours ahead.

Okay, we're out. Remember to enter your Fantasy5 team if you haven't yet, and we'll see you next Thursday evening.The LazyFPL team