- LazyFPL | The FPL Newsletter
- 🚨 GW16: the 3-min cheat sheet 🔐
🚨 GW16: the 3-min cheat sheet 🔐
Everything you need to avoid FPL embarrassment this weekend.
🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨
⏰ Gameweek 16’s deadline is Saturday 9th December, 11:00 GMT.
🤕 Mbeumo suffers a twisted ankle. Ruled out for Gameweek 16 and beyond.
🧤 Howe “really believes” in Dubravka as Pope confirmed out for 4 months.
🤦♂️ Son leaves the pitch injured, Porro also limping.
🚑 Lascelles pulls up with a suspected dead leg. Matip ruptures ACL.
Areola has ligament damage, Moyes unsure if he’ll make Gameweek 16.
Blimey. Keep reading for some rare differentials.
No time for any elaborate intros today. We’ve got business to attend to: and that business happens to be the dogged pursuit of fictional points that, if we’re lucky, can be exchanged for a shrivelled morsel of joy at the end of the season…
…but don’t get your hopes up.
Ready to meet Gameweek 16?
It doesn’t matter. Gameweek 16 will see you now regardless.
The Broadcast Group.
I got a message from one of our Premium members earlier this week. Talking about our Broadcast WhatsApp group, he said “that’s clearly where some great value lies for me and don't think it ever comes across in your newsletters just how much of a perk it is personally.”
In an effort to rectify this, here are three reasons why our Premium Broadcast WhatsApp group is well good:
⏰ you get up-to-the-minute updates on everything we consider “essential” info. Stuff like injury updates, team news, team leaks and goals as they go in.
👀 the Professor and James Cooper (two of the best to ever do it) post their teams and transfers in there before every deadline.
✅ only our admins can post, which means you don’t get bombarded with notifications.
It’s just one of the features of LazyFPL Premium. You’ll also get two extra emails per gameweek, ad-free newsletters, access to an FPL WhatsApp chat and invites to exclusive mini-leagues.
It’s £4pm or £36 a year. Cheaper than a pint-a-month, but lasts much longer.
The strife of Bryan.
Owned by a third of FPL managers, Bryan Mbeumo is the first really significant casualty of this hectic December schedule.
Fortunately for us, Thomas Frank’s Gameweek 16 press conference was on Thursday at 3pm. Unfortunately for us, this is what he had to say:
“It is bad, I don’t know how bad. We don’t have the exact number of weeks. He will definitely be out for Saturday and for weeks.”
Every FPL pundit on Earth has provided a list of Mbeumo replacements. If you’re too lazy to pour through the threads, articles, videos and podcasts, let us condense them for you:
✅ Anthony Gordon or Cole Palmer if you’re playing it safe.
👀 Jarrod Bowen, Raheem Sterling (4 yellows) or Phil Foden (blanks in GW18) if you’re feeling fruity.
❌ Avoid Hwang Hee-chan and Mohammed Kudus if you want a long-term replacement. The former is on four yellows and due to play at the Asian Cup in January. The latter has AFCON in January.
We don’t usually do differentials here, but given you lot are such a thirsty bunch we’ll pour a couple down your gullets today. Open wide:
🔴 1) Alejandro Garnacho
You know in a 90s rom-com when the protagonist takes off her glasses and unfurls her hair and suddenly everyone realises that she’s not a total minger?
Garnacho had a similar moment when he scored what will almost certainly be the 23/24 goal of the season back in Gameweek 13. He’s always been very good, but the wider footballing community needed a bicycle kick to really see it.
We’ll be honest: he doesn’t have incredible stats and he doesn’t have incredible fixtures (BOU, liv, whu, AST).
But the lad’s £4.7m and currently starting every game for a team that have won four of their last five Premier League matches. Huge enabler with plenty of upside.
🔵 Bernardo Silva
Very few of Man City’s attackers are safe from Pep’s rotating blade, but Bernardo Silva appears to have consolidated his starting berth for the time being.
At £6.4m, he’s one of the cheaper ways into Man City’s attack, and teeters on the edge of arguably the best fixture run that one can have in the Premier League at the moment (lut, CRY, eve, SHU). No Man City midfielder has a better expected goal involvement than him over the last seven gameweeks either.
The elephant in the room is that Man City will have a blank gameweek in Gameweek 18, but those willing to sit him on their bench for that will be rewarded with a vulnerable Luton and an out-of-form Crystal Palace first.
👹 Bruno Fernandes
Sorry, but there’s no way around this one.
I’ve ran the numbers and, just like Santa Clause, I’ve checked them twice: it turns out Fernandes has been a little bit naughty.
Take a look for yourself:
Somehow Fernandes has only managed six attacking returns this season, but as any self-respecting LazyFPL subscriber will know: this underperformance spells opportunity.
Despite his penalty miss last gameweek, Fernandes is likely to remain on penalties for the time-being. Combined with his underlying stats, his team’s respectable form and his impressive pedigree as an FPL asset, Bruno is arguably the most criminally ignored midfielder in the entire game.
£8.3m, so you’ll need some spare cheese in the fridge if you want to make the upgrade.
A rather worrying video is doing the rounds on Friday morning.
It’s a dramatic scene. Almost biblical. Son looks like he’s about to give birth.
But it contrasts with the post-match update we got from Ryan Taylor:
So the jury is still out. Son has self-diagnosed himself as “okay”, and that’s all we know for now. If you own him (and plenty of you do), we’d recommend keep him and start him (pending more concrete news of course).
He’s either fit or he isn’t: if it’s the former, he’ll probably start. If it’s the latter, he’ll be ruled out and your auto-sub will come in.
p.s. the same goes for Pedro Porro.
What are the top managers doing?
Replacing Mbeumo, Pope and Cash remains the priority for top managers who own either of these three.
Injuries to your players are frustrating, but having your hand forced isn’t always a bad thing in FPL. It keeps you on the straight and narrow; like those barriers you can use in a bowling alley.
Those managers who don’t have any serious injuries to deal with will likely take the rare opportunity to roll a transfer into Gameweek 17.
The sentiment is one of attrition. We buy a player, they get injured, we sell the player. Rinse and repeat. It’s a time for ration booklets and hunkering down. If we can get through this, we can get through anything.
It was never about the enjoyment.
The best captain for Gameweek 16.
Mo Salah plays Crystal Palace away in the early kick-off; Erling Haaland has Luton away on Sunday afternoon.
On the face of it, Haaland is the easy pick. But then someone on Reddit posts this:
Is there something here? Are Luton just supremely good at man-marking specific individuals?
Perhaps. But more likely, this is just a long-standing coincidence. Luton remain bottom for expected goals allowed this season. Crystal Palace are amongst Villa and Chelsea for the same stat.
Haaland will rightfully be the most popular captain this week, but if that wasn’t enough, the fact that Salah plays in the early kick-off should swing it for you.
The key stats.
Over half a million managers have already transferred out Mbeumo. A true exodus. Also, look at Bournemouth’s recent expected goals.
The Professor’s team.
The tiniest of green arrows makes it 7/8 greens for the Prof over the last eight gameweeks.
He’s still figuring out his transfers, but Haaland is his captain.
Here’s how his team looks pre-transfer:
The Prof is using Fantasy Football Hub’s MyTeam. It’s a highly powerful team planner, that provides a rating, suggested transfers, fixture difficulty and loads more.
Fancy trying it? They’re still running a 30-day free trial, with 30% off after that. It’s a beast. Try it here.
Other stuff we found interesting.
Gameweek 15’s team of the week had an average ownership of less than 1%.
Ben Crellin says there’s a “10% chance” of a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 20.
A reminder that Man City and Brentford will blank in Gameweek 18.
Okay, you’re set. We’ll be back next Thursday, 24h before the Friday evening deadline. You know the drill.
The LazyFPL Team.
We work hard on these, and it'd be great to have your feedback.