💪 GW15 - don't get caught out 👀

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Gameweek 15’s deadline is Tuesday 5th December, 18:00 GMT.

🤕 Pope suffers suspected dislocated shoulder - speculative reports say 4-5 months.

👋 Sheffield United set to sack Paul Heckingbottom (The Athletic).

😡 Expect more rotation this gameweek.

🧠 This newsletter is supported by BetterHelp - get 25% off your first month of therapy by clicking here.

It’s rare that the bookies back someone over Haaland to score, but it’s happened this week. Read on to find out who gets the nod.

Alright?

Whether it’s the swelling in your nasal passages or eight gameweeks crammed into a single month, there’s no immediate cure for congestion.

But good treatment can make it a lot more comfortable to live with.

Consider this email to be a bottle of Sudafed during this deranged period of fixture bottle-necking: we can’t unclog the issue entirely, but we can at least try to alleviate the symptoms.

Remember: take one per gameweek, ideally whilst sat on the toilet. Not suitable for under 12s or anyone who has an allergy to shit FPL advice.

Let’s look at Gameweek 15.

Nick Pope is out: what it means.

The papal thief* has picked up an injury and, as I type, it appears to be a serious one. Mike McGrath, who writes for the Telegraph, had this to say on Monday:

This is a significant one for the FPL community, but not because Pope was particularly highly owned (his ownership was around 12%).

Instead, the intrigue is two-fold:

• will this devalue Newcastle defenders?

• will the £3.9m Martin Dubravka fill in for the next 4-5 months?

At the time of writing, 85,000 managers have already transferred in Dubravka. He’s particularly appealing given how much everyone seems to hate owning virtually every other goalkeeper at the moment:

And it certainly doesn’t seem to have impacted Newcastle’s defensive appeal either. Indeed, two Newcastle defenders (Trippier and Lascelles) are currently in the top 10 most transferred in players.

Whether it will have an impact on their actual performance is yet to be seen, but there is a tendency amongst FPL managers to underestimate the impact a goalkeeper can have on a team’s ability to keep clean sheets.

That an Alisson-less Liverpool (the third-best home defence in the league) conceded three goals to Fulham (the third-worst away attack in the league) should speak volumes for how influential a good goalkeeper can be.

Cystic Greg will update you on whether to buy Dubravka or not.

^{*10 points if you can figure this one out.}

Fixture flurry: what to expect.

If this is your first season playing FPL, the sudden influx of Premier League fixtures might have your thermal long-johns in a bit of a tangle (I assume everyone in the Northern hemisphere is currently wearing these given the energy crisis?).

There’s a comfort in resigning yourself early to the fact that line-up rotation is inevitable, and your best laid plans will likely be disrupted by unexpected rests, an increased likelihood of injury or something bonkers like snow postponements.

This is textbook FPL, and in the same way that people get tattoos because of the pain, so too do we play FPL because of the unpredictability.

We’re already starting to see this in action. Nobody expected Cole Palmer to be rested against Brighton, but as Socrates famously said, shit happens.

Here’s what you can control:

• how strong your bench is

• how many hits you take

The cruel thing about December is that whilst it’s normally the most tempting month to take a hit (particularly after a key player is unexpectedly benched), it’s usually also the most damaging month in which to do so.

Why? Because by being rested, the player you’ve just transferred out is now more likely to play future fixtures. Meanwhile, the unrested player you’re probably targeting is still due a rest.

By this logic, there’s never been a better time to bring in Cole Palmer than right now. As Pochettino said after the game:

“He feels something during the week and we don't want to take a risk. We have too many games ahead, now we are going into a very busy period and we don't want to take a risk.”

Oh yeah - and have a strong bench. Cheap and reliable will do.

Question time with Cystic Greg.

After an emphatic reception last week, Cystic Greg returns.

Despite allegedly predicting it’d happen, he’s still delighted to be back. So much so that he’s purchased a set of hairy crystal balls that he gently fondles whilst making his forecasts.

Picture that as you read his answers to this gameweek’s burning questions:

Q: Should I bring in Martin Dubravka?

A: A £3.9m route into one of the league’s best defences? There are worse ways to spend a transfer. Some muted chat about Newcastle signing David De Gea today but I don’t think it’ll happen anytime soon.

Q: Will Sheffield United improve under new management?

A: I wouldn’t go tripling up on them, but the new manager bounce is a real phenomenon. The Premier League themselves have an article about it here.

Q: I got rid of Ollie Watkins last week. Should I bring him straight back in?

A: No, not yet. You made the leap, and now Watkins has Man City and Arsenal at home, followed by a tricky visit to Brentford. He’s good enough to score against anyone, but would I use a transfer on him? The hairy crystal balls are saying no.

Q: Are premium defenders back on the menu?

A: Trent Alexander-Arnold has had a great few gameweeks, but there’s still too much value in the mid-priced range to justify the extra expenditure for me. Alisson’s injury means clean sheets are less likely too.

And they were all yellow.

The following players are 1 yellow away from a suspension (shoutout to our Broadcast Premium WhatsApp group for sharing this).

⭕ Havertz
🟣 Cash, Digne, Douglas Luiz
🐝 Ajer
🕊️ Dunk
🧿 Fernández, Sterling
🦅 Ayew
🍬 Branthwaite, Doucouré (Abdoulaye), Young
⬜ Robinson
🟠 Kabore, Lockyer, Nakamba
👹 Bruno Fernandes
⚫ Longstaff (Sean), Trippier
🌳 Mangala, Ibrahim Sangaré
⚔️ Ahmedhodzic, Norwood, Robinson
🐓 Udogie
🐺 Ait Nouri, Hwang Hee-Chan

You’ve been warned.

The best captain for Gameweek 15.

It’s another shootout between Haaland and Salah this week, with a sprinkling of Son for good measure.

Sheffield United have conclusively been the worst defensive team at home this season (they’ve allowed SIX more expected goals against (xGA) than the next-nearest team).

Aston Villa, meanwhile, have the second-most statistically robust home defence in the entire league (averaging less than 1xGA per home game).

On this basis, Salah will likely be the most popular captain amongst active managers.

But will Sheffield United’s impending managerial shift inspire a more dogged defensive performance? Time will tell.

The Prof is backing Salah. He’s the best pick on paper.

The key stats.

For once, the bookies have Salah ahead of Haaland in the goalscorer odds.

The Professor’s team.

Whisper it, but the Professor seems to be photosynthesising the seedlings of a comeback.

In pursuit of those precious sun rays, he’s planning a move from Moussa Diaby to…he’s not entirely sure. Cole Palmer is the most likely candidate.

Captain: Mohamed Salah

Here’s how his team looks pre-transfer:

Btw, you’ll notice the Prof is Fantasy Football Hub’s MyTeam, which is why he has so much more team info than you.

Fancy trying it? They’re still running a 30-day free trial, with 30% off after that. It’s a beast. Try it here.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• Fabio Borges, one of the world’s greatest managers, took a -4 to remove Ollie Watkins and bring in Darwin Nunez last week.

• 10 years ago to the day, Luis Suarez scored four and notched an assist against Norwich, scoring 24 points in the process.

  

  Cheers to FPLFocal for this one.

• Arteta is “hopeful” Tomiyasu will be fine.

• Haaland escapes FA punishment for his now-deleted tweet criticising Simon Hooper.

Right then - we’ll be back on Friday morning.

Remember to give BetterHelp a look if you’re interested and cheers to them for supporting the newsletter.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.