🎯 GW14 - the big brain moves 🧠

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Gameweek 14’s deadline is Saturday 2nd December, 13:30 GMT.

🤕 Watkins misses ECL game with injury, Bowen out too.

🚑 Allison injured and will miss Gameweek 14.

👍 Mitoma starts in Europe and plays 69 (behave) mins.

Stick around to meet Cystic Greg.

Alright?

Scientists have puzzled over it for centuries. Great mathematicians have died at their desks trying to plot it out. Philosophers have searched the innermost caverns of their minds for an answer, and theologians look to the divine in pursuit of the truth.

And yet, until Gameweek 13, nobody on Earth could tell you exactly what it was that Meatloaf wouldn’t do for love.

As it turns out, the answer was right under our noses. We just needed another terrible gameweek to sniff it out.

Meatloaf will do anything for love, but he won’t play FPL this season. There’s only so much pain one can take.

As Einstein never actually said, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

And with that, let’s look at Gameweek 14.

Time to Cash out on Villa players?

Let’s start with some bad news: Ollie Watkins is a doubt for Sunday’s game away at Bournemouth.

He missed Villa’s Europa Conference League clash against Legia Warsaw, and, when asked whether that was because of injury or rest, Unai Emery helpfully replied with “both”.

Right. Here’s the full quote:

“Both. Both. He had yesterday [Wednesday] a small pain - not very strong…we decided, as well, 50 percent to rest.”

Don’t hold us to this, but we’ve become pretty adept at managerial translation over the years. It sounds like Emery is saying “we rested him as a precaution but his injury isn’t serious.” Unless we get further news, assume he starts on Sunday.

Matty Cash is another doubt - not because of his injury, but seemingly because of his recent performances.

Having been subbed at half-time last gameweek, Cash played the full 90 on Thursday evening. Then @FPLVillan, one of the internet’s best sources for Villa info, tweeted this:

Incidentally, FPLVillan also said he felt “very confident” Watkins will be fine, pending Emery’s press conference.

For now we’d certainly hold and play Watkins, but would look at Cash carefully if you have transfers to play with. He’s scored just 23 points in Villa’s last 10 games.

Decent defenders.

With Cash a doubt, and other highly-owned defenders like Reece James and Pervis Estupinan currently out, we thought you might enjoy a section on decent defenders.

Truth be told, no singular defender has been particularly reliable this season. The gap between the highest scoring defender (Trippier) and the highest scoring forward (Haaland) is 33 points. 11 midfielders outscore the second-highest scoring defenders (Saliba and Andersen).

But far fewer players are capable of matching defenders on a points-per-million basis. Of the top 25 in this category, nine are defenders. Only two forwards make the cut.

Here are three under-the-radar defenders that we believe will be amongst the highest-scoring by the end of December:

1. Takehiro Tomiyasu

Tomiyasu looks to be nailed at the moment. Arsenal fans love him, Arteta seems to favour him and he’s started (and played 90) in each of the last three Premier League games.

Over the last six gameweeks, Tomiyasu is 2nd only to Saliba for expected FPL points amongst defenders, a stat that was consolidated midweek when he bagged two assists in a 45-minute masterclass against Lens.

At £4.5m, he’s the cheapest way into Arsenal’s defence at the moment, and shows plenty of attacking promise.

2. Diogo Dalot

Dalot is the highest scoring defender over the last six gameweeks. He’s started every game since Gameweek 3, and comes in at only £5.0m.

Unbelievably (to me at least), Manchester United have the joint-second highest number of Premier League clean sheets this season, and have kept more in the last four gameweeks than any other team.

3. Pedro Porro

We all like clean sheets, but they’re about as easy to come by at the moment as a shop not playing Christmas songs.

In lieu of any dependable clean sheets, attacking returns from our defenders are a precious commodity. No other defender looks as likely to provide them as Pedro Porro.

He’s currently top for expected goal involvement over the last six gameweeks, and has registered two assists in his last two Premier League games.

He has a tricky little run of fixtures (Man City, West Ham and Newcastle) in his next three, but after that things improve dramatically.

TL;DR: vote for Pedro.

Question time with Cystic Greg.

Meet Cystic Greg. He’s an amateur soothsayer from Burnham, just outside of Slough.

His job is to answer your key FPL questions each week, which he does by dunking a digestive into a cup of tea and then searching the soggy biscuit remnants at the bottom for patterns.

Q: Cole Palmer or Anthony Gordon?

A: Ah yes, the battle of the budget midfielders. Gordon is your best pick here. Palmer is a fantastic player, but his dependence on penalties means he’s actually outside of the top 70 players for non-penalty xG. Players like Everton’s Beto have a higher NPxG, and I’ve never even heard of him.

Q: Should I sell Son Heung-min?

A: Probably not. Son has had some of his best games against the “big 6” this season, including two goals against Arsenal and a goal against Liverpool. Spurs have scored against Man City in seven of their last eight Premier League meetings. You probably have more pressing concerns than getting rid.

Q: What should I do about Jarrod Bowen?

A: There’s still cautious optimism that Bowen could feature against Crystal Palace. Keep an eye on what David Moyes has to say in today’s press conference, but Bowen’s return appears to be sooner rather than later.

Q: How can I mitigate against December’s fixture congestion?

A: Great question, fictional reader. Fixture congestion means a heightened likelihood of player rotation and injury. No player is undroppable, so the best way to prepare for rotation and the increased prospect of injury/fatigue across December is to ensure your bench is stronger-than-usual. If you’re happy with your starting XI, use transfers to shift the deadwood.

The best captain for Gameweek 14.

As the Professor said in his Gameweek 14 preview, this week’s captaincy call is “about as close a decision as you will get all season”.

I’m referring, of course, to the age-old armband battle between Cameron Archer and Ryan Christie.

Nah, it’s Salah vs Haaland again.

Salah will play Fulham at home on Sunday afternoon. Haaland will play Spurs at home a few hours later.

Listen, folks. We could talk about the stats, we could compare form, we could get into the minutiae of their respective opponents’ xGA.

But the thing is, we’re talking about a one-week decision here. Anything can happen in football, particularly over the course of 90 minutes. It’s easy to make a compelling case for either of these players.

Salah could get sent off. Haaland could be awarded two penalties. Tim Ream could play the game of his life.

This week’s captaincy debate should not be plaguing you: it should be liberating you. It’s very rare that there’s a genuine 50/50 decision in FPL, but this appears to be one of them. Just look at our Premium captaincy poll:

The only poor decision is to go for a differential.

I (James) am going for Haaland purely because he plays 2.5 hours later than Salah, which postpones the inevitable disappointment for a little longer.

The key stats.

The bookies back Haaland as the more likely goalscorer, but the bookies don’t consider assists and the extra points that Salah scores for scoring and keeping a clean sheet.

The Professor’s team.

The Professor is using two free transfers this week.

The first one is Eze → Mbeumo.

To fund that, he’ll need to do one of:

• Cash → Tarkowski

• Diaby → Palmer

• Watkins → Darwin/Isak

It’ll be a late decision. Remember, you can be notified when he makes the decision by joining LazyFPL Premium.

Captain: Erling Haaland.

The Prof uses Fantasy Football Hub’s MyTeam, which is why he has so much more team info than you.

Fancy trying it? Sign up to Fantasy Football Hub here and get a 30-day free trial and 30% off.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• This excellent December fixture schedule from @Legomane_FPL. You’ll need to zoom.
  

  

• We get our first midweek Gameweek next week. There’s just 48 hours between Gameweek 14 ending and Gameweek 15 starting.

• Nkunku could return this weekend. He has not been ruled out.

Okay, we’ll be back with you on Monday evening.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.