Gameweek 14

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Summary for the lazy.

- Gameweek 14's deadline is 11:00 BST, Saturday 29th October ⏰- Haaland could be injured - Pep's presser is Friday at 12:30 BST 🤕- More worryingly, Solanke might be out too 🤦‍♂️- Bowen could also be injured and is off penalties 🚫- Unai Emery appointed as Villa manager 🤝Are you an FPL hipster? Stick around for some differentials that are definitely going to be the next big thing.

If you tilt your head slightly to the left and remain perfectly still, you might be able hear it. The quickening of breaths, the deepening thud of hearts, the rapid tip-tapping of keyboards.It's the sound of millions of FPL managers panicking over Erling Haaland's yellow flag. Some say it was even picked up on the Richter scale: a faint 1.1. Around the same as his expected goals per 90.But you're not one of those millions. You're an FPLTips.com subscriber, and in these parts, we don't panic. Instead we look for the opportunities that chaos - and this is chaos - can present us.Without further ado, let's look at what we should do this week.

Erlimp Haaland: a timeline.

For the lazy:Tuesday night - subbed off at half-time. Pep says he has a fever and a knock.Wednesday night - cleared of any serious damageThursday morning - video of him limping emergesFriday 12:30 BST - Man City press conferenceFor the toilet readers:On Tuesday evening, during a Champions League match against his former club, Borussia Dortmund, Haaland was substituted at half-time.Here's a picture of him wincing whilst holding his foot in that very game:

For a moment there was jubilation amongst FPL managers who sensed a rest ahead of the weekend. But then came Pep's comments - always the man to turn to when in need of clarity.

When asked about the seriousness of the knock, Pep was characteristically elaborative:"I don't know."We then heard some good news on Wednesday night:

And City released photos of their pool play session, which was either a new learn-to-swim initiative organised by the club or some sort of post-match recovery activity. We'll let you decide.

Either the bloke on the bed behind him is already dead, or Haaland isn't isolating due to illness.So far, so promising. However, footage of Haaland limping has since started to circulate. To put it lightly: he doesn't look like someone who is a few days away from competing in an early kick-off.Pep will speak to the press at 12:30. It's a sorry state of affairs when the possible fate of your FPL team rests on Guardiola providing clear and unambiguous injury updates, but that's where we are.

Should you sell Haaland?

Definitely not yet. ~110,000 managers already have but, as far as anyone is currently concerned, he might still be able to play tomorrow.I barely know you or what your team looks like, but even so, I can bet that two things are almost certainly true:1) you've owned Haaland for a while2) you'd like to own Haaland in every game that he playsIf I'm correct, keep Haaland unless Pep categorically rules him out. Getting rid of him will probably:- lose you money. You won't be able to buy him back unless you have extra funds.- leave you exposed. If Pep didn't have a penchant for football management, his full-time pursuit would almost certainly be misleading FPL managers. If Haaland returns earlier-than-expected and you don't own him, the consequences could be season-defining.

Should you bench Haaland?

Again, it depends on what Pep says in today's presser, but if Haaland's status remains ambiguous (the most likely outcome), we would play him.There are three things that can happen:1) Haaland doesn't play2) Haaland starts3) Haaland plays for part of the gameIn all three of those scenarios, playing him is an acceptable strategy. In scenario (1), he'll be automatically substituted for the first player on your bench (which, let's face it, will probably be Andreas Pereira).Scenario 2 is great. And as for scenario 3 - we all know that the City man doesn't exactly need bags of time on the pitch to make an impact. When a player's fitness is in doubt, it's highly unlikely he gets bought on for a ~10 minute cameo.

Should you captain Haaland?

Again, let's assume Pep is ambiguous in his presser. As per the logic already explored in the above section, we'd captain Haaland unless he's ruled out.We'll explore alternatives in the "best captain" section further down.

If you want to be the first to find out what Pep Guardiola has to say at 12:30, our Premium WhatsApp group is the place to be.We'll be using it to update our members in real-time, and dishing out tips on what to do based on Pep's comments. The Professor does this regularly in there.

Want in? Sign up to FPLTips Premium today. You'll also get two extra emails every week and access to our member's lounge on Discord. All for the price of a coffee each month.

Solanke out?

When we said the league's best forward was potentially out, we weren't talking about Haaland. Forget about him: Dominic Solanke is also a doubt.Luckily, Gary O'Neil has already provided an update. Here's what he said: "Dom is a lot better than expected, so good news on Dom, he’s recovered well and we’re still hopeful [that he'll play this weekend]."

Fingers and toes, guys.

The three week sprint.

We have three gameweeks before we all have to assemble our World Cup fantasy teams, try to learn the differences in the rules, and start researching what international defenders take penalties (we'll help you with all of this stuff, btw).But before that, fantasy players have been presented with a unique proposition. Differentials with excellent short term fixtures are back, just like early 2000s fashion, which I don't understand at all and can't believe it's made a resurgence and can someone please explain to me why.

So who are you drafting in then immediately shipping out on your World Cup Wildcard?Allow us to wet your appetite.

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the age old conundrum we touched upon last week:

Fixtures vs. Form.

In the blue corner, we have the blue dreamboat Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Injuries have put a dent in his data this season but, for those of you who are of a fixtures over form persuasion, there isn't a better differential in the game.He's currently 0.4% owned and historically has operated at close to 0.5 expected goals per 90. That's decent.

In the claret-ish corner, we have Ollie Watkins. Watkins is full of form but has pretty poor fixtures.In fact, managers may be surprised to learn that Watkins has the highest non-penalty expected goals over the past three gameweeks, and with the potential Emery manager boost, we wouldn't blame managers for taking a dip.

But this is merely a taste of what's on offer:

Rashford, Barnes, Willian (yes, Willian), Antony, and Eze are all options in the run in to the World Cup.And as for defender differentials, look no further than - who else - Timothy Castagne. The 5% owned Leicester man has returned in all of this last five games: in fact, no defender has scored more since Gameweek 8.

Time for Bowen to Go...wen.

Was owning Jarrod Bowen ever particularly fun?Over the last three gameweeks he's scored five points, missing a penalty against Liverpool in what would've surely been the crowning reward for owners who had stuck with him through thin and thin.Well, now he's injured.

And to quite literally add insult to injury, he's also been taken off penalties. The source is a fairly reliable one:

It's a fitting end to a gamble that never really paid off. If you took a punt on Bowen, it's probably time to sell.

The best captain.

Blimey. Talk about a minefield.If you've made it this far, we're going to assume (perhaps arrogantly) that you've read through the Haaland stuff above. Everything is contingent on what Pep says at 12:30.If Haaland is ruled out - or if you'd rather not captain someone who might not play - you have a fairly decent number of options to turn to.

In his Gameweek 13 report, The Professor extolled the virtues of Liverpool assets in spite of the current media narrative surrounding them. They still have great attacking stats and their players have been unfortunate not to score more. This means opportunity for the eagle-eyed FPL manager.They play Leeds, who teeter on the precipice of managerial change and have conceded eight goals in their last four. We'd back Salah (the current most-transferred-out player) and Darwin.

Harry Kane offers an interesting option against Bournemouth, but Bournemouth are surprisingly hard to score against these days. And Spurs are finding it surprisingly hard to score. I'm not sure I'd trust any of their players - even Kane - with the captaincy.The elephant in the room is Arsenal, who host Nottingham Forest. If you're without Liverpool players (and most of you are), Saka, Martinelli or Jesus offer a viable alternative to Haaland.Salah remains our favourite non-Norwegian option.

The key stats.

Here are all the important stats ahead of Gameweek 14:

In one of the extra Premium emails this week we looked at some of the interesting player names in the X Marks the Spot section, and whether they make for viable options.Diego Costa, anyone?

Expert analysis.

This week's FPL expert is BakerFPL343, who co-hosts the AboveAverageFPL podcast. True to his word, he is indeed above average. In fact, he's finished in the top 30k over in both of the last two seasons.

With three weeks to go until the World Cup break, the focus for most this week is whether you should max out on Arsenal players and what to do about Liverpool assets.Let’s tackle Arsenal first: they have Forest this weekend followed by two away games. I’d happily use a Free Transfer for an attacking asset but I wouldn’t take a hit to get them given their Gameweek 15 and 16 fixtures.Saka > Martinelli > Jesus is the order of preference in my opinion. Forest leaked a lot of headers to Virgil Van Dijk last week so Gabriel could haul if you’re already well covered in attack.

As for Liverpool, I think you should look to jump on their players, not off them. Their ownership will rarely be this low and you could make huge gains.If Haaland is out then Mo Salah will be the captain for many, but Darwin Nunez is a viable option if your structure allows you to get on him. My punt though would be Andy Robertson at £6.7m. In Gameweek 13 he put in 10 crosses leading to three chances created, then against Ajax he was the top creator again with four key passes. I’ll likely move Bowen to Saka this week, with Bowen seemingly off penalties and potentially injured, I feel comfortable moving him on despite two great fixtures after.Manchester United are on the rise and Marcus Rashford is very much on my radar, so I'll be keen to see how he does against the Hammers.

As always, Baker got to do what he pleases to our Expert's team this week. True to his word, he's bought in Andy Robertson, getting rid of Ivan Perisic.Here's how we look ahead of Gameweek 14 (Pep's comments pending):

Okay, that's all for now. Here's that link again if you want to go Premium. Otherwise, we'll be back in your inbox on Friday afternoon.Cheers,The FPL Tips team.

P.s. here's my bench from last week. Can anyone beat it?