🎲 GW13 - how to make it your luckiest yet 📈

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Gameweek 13’s deadline is Saturday 25th November, 11:00 GMT.

🌏 Our international break round-up includes a lot of the last fortnight’s key updates.

💪 Haaland pictured in full training.

👍 Trippier fine, Jesus available.

👊 Mitoma filmed jogging to training too.

🗣 Our sponsor this week is Babbel. Learn a language in 3 weeks using science. Click here to get 60% off (expires today).

Keep reading to find out whether this season really is as “weird” as everyone seems to think it is.

Alright?

We’re not superstitious here at LazyFPL. In fact, rumour has it that before every gameweek deadline the Professor will pro-actively seek out a ladder to walk under, just because he relishes the challenge.

But superstition is rife in FPL. Desperate managers will point to a whole range of factors to explain away a bad gameweek; that can even include fictitious metaphysical phenomena.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Gameweek 13 will force us to confront two of fantasy football’s biggest hoodoos.

The first one is obvious to most of us. Thanks to that heady mix of the Bible and Norse mythology, 13 is considered unlucky in Western culture.

The second one is a little less clear. With Salah and Haaland playing in the early kick-off, many of us will be tempted to violate Gandhi’s golden captaincy rule:

But we laugh in the face of such folly. Football is football: it has no respect for our silly constructs.

Let’s proceed, fingers and toes proudly uncrossed, to Gameweek 13.

Presentamos a Babbel.

Did you know that Haaland’s NPxGI/90 is 1.17? That’s mad.*

But what if you’re not fluent in FPL?

It’s the same when you go abroad. I can just about ask someone where the library is in Spanish, but unless I ever need a book about how to remove 2-day-old sand from my crack, that’s unlikely to ever come in handy.

That’s why our sponsor this week, Babbel, exists.

• they use science to teach you a new language.

• it’s the stuff you actually need to have a proper chat with someone.

• you’ll be conversational in 3 weeks.

Today (and today only) they have 60% off. Something about “Black Friday”, whatever that is.

*“Haaland’s non-penalty expected goal involvement per 90 mins is 1.17. That’s mad.”

Maddison’s absence.

In case you haven’t heard, James Maddison is out until January.

On a strange week for captaincy in which some top managers - including the Professor - are flirting with the idea of giving Son Heung-min the armband, it’s worth looking at whether Maddison’s absence sours the whole Spurs pudding.

The short answer is “probably yes”. Maddison is one of the most creative players in the league. 7th for xA, 3rd for key passes, 3rd for final-third passes.

Ange Postecoglou is no stranger to adapting to the sudden absence of a talismanic player: he joined Spurs a few months before Harry Kane finally departed.

Indeed, many have written Spurs off before and been made to eat their words. Gobble gobble.

But this feels a bit different. There’s no obvious like-for-like replacement for Maddison; a fact that felt unnervingly exposed against Wolves. Spurs registered just 0.7xG and six shots in that game. Prior to that, they’d been averaging 17 shots and 1.7xG per match.

It’s a small sample size, and Postecoglou has stressed that Spurs will continue to play the same system - one that has not been built around any individual player.

But losing Maddison’s imposing creativity is a blow for even the most robust squads. It seems inevitable that the remaining Spurs players will feel some impact.

Should you get rid of Son? No. Not yet, at least. But it’s one to monitor.

Is this really a “weird” season?

Speak to an FPL manager this season and they’ll likely say one of two things:

1) please help me. I don’t know how to quit.

2) this season is a bit weird, innit?

Unfortunately we can’t help with (1). But we can at least help to explain (2).

Top managers underperforming. Injuries everywhere. Awful gameweeks.

Have we simply forgotten that this happens every season? Or is there something genuinely different about the 23/24 campaign?

Let’s start with this:

Yes, there are more injuries. According to injury guru and friend of the newsletter Ben Dinnery, this season has seen a 15% increase compared to the last four seasons. A total of 196 injuries registered so far this campaign.

And then there’s this:

Fantasy Premier League’s official X (ugh) account shared this graphic a few weeks back. Look at how jagged this line is. It’s been very hard to find a rhythm this season, where gameweek averages have fluctuated more wildly than Pep’s back three.

Finally, let’s take a moment to acknowledge Gameweek 11.

This stat neatly contextualises how unprecedentedly dire it really was.

Despite what you may have heard, there are still the same number of managers in the top 10k this season.

But a history-making number of Premier League injuries, combined with record-breakingly low gameweek averages, has created a truly unique set of circumstances that feels almost as though it was designed to torment us.

Many managers will succumb to that torment. Your only task is to resist it.

Still, next time someone says “this season is a bit weird, innit?” you have our express permission to reply with “yeah mate - it is actually.”

The best captain for Gameweek 13.

Yeah baby, the Erling Haaland pics are back.

Liverpool have the 9th-best away defence in the league, according to their expected goals allowed (xGA). That’s not-that-great, and their away opponents have included Luton, Bournemouth, Brighton and Wolves.

They conceded goals against all of them.

Meanwhile, Haaland has played three games against the “big six” this season, averaging 11.33 points. These are the games he loves.

Yes it’s the early kick-off. Yes it’s the 13th Gameweek. But I propose that we vanquish these demons once and for all. Who’s with me?

Elsewhere, Mohamed Salah has scored 5 goals and notched 2 assists in his last six games against Man City. He shouldn’t be ruled out.

Son Heung-min is the other intriguing pick here. Spurs host Villa on Sunday afternoon: a decent enough fixture (Villa have conceded at least two goals in every away game this season), but with Spurs’ attacking output in a state of Maddison-less flux, it feels like more of a punt than an informed decision.

Haaland gets the nod for those of you who are happy to play it safe. The bookies’ put him head-and-shoulders above anyone else to score this week.

The key stats.

It’s always exciting when a player is in both the most transferred in AND the most transferred out tables.

That honour belongs to Jarrod Bowen who, despite the looming injury rumours, has still been purchased by over 300,000 managers at the time of writing.

The Professor’s team.

The Professor has two free transfers and no idea what to do with them. Imagine being that lucky.

As he outlined in his latest email, it’s a mistake to just burn a transfer. There’s always something to improve, even if the fruits of that improvement won’t ripen until further down the line.

He’s awaiting press conference news (most of which we’ll get this afternoon) but is considering Anthony Gordon to Cole Palmer.

Captain - currently on Son, but could well change to Haaland.

Big news: Fantasy Football Hub are running a 30 day free trial (their biggest free trial ever), with 30% off at the end of it.

It means you’ll be able to use the full-suite of their tools, access their many articles and peek at their expert team reveals for FREE for most of December.

Click here to get it - will expire in a few days.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• David Raya is out this weekend: he cannot face his parent club (Brentford).

• This fantastic article outlines who to buy and sell in Gameweek 13, plus other good stuff.

• Taiwo Awoniyi is expected to be out for 3-4 months.

• A reminder that we won’t have another international break until March 🎉

You’re all set. Keep an eye on today’s pressers (most of which will be 13:00 - 14:00). In fact, if you’re lucky enough to have two eyes, it’s probably worth using them both.

A final shoutout to Babbel - cheers to them for supporting the newsletter.

We’ll be back in your inbox at 13:30 next Friday (there’s no early kick-off next week).

Until then, stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.