⏰ Gameweek 8’s deadline is Friday, 23rd October, 18:30 BST.

🤕 Semenyo will “probably” miss eight weeks - Maresca.

🩼 Saka limped off after 10 minutes of Arsenal’s UCL game with a quad issue. Arteta says it “does not look good at all”.

👍 Haaland is “100% available” - Maresca.

🤦 Szoboszlai is expected to miss the next 1-3 games.

👌 Gibbs-White is available for Gameweek 8.

🏆 There were midweek European fixtures this week. Next week is the EFL Cup, which may give some teams a chance to rest key players.

Alright?

Hopefully Gameweek 7 was actually Gamestrong 7 for you. If you captained Haaland and owned an Arsenal defender or two, you probably did okay.

But Gameweek 7 is dead to us now. In fact, an ornate, framed picture of Gameweek 7 gathers dust on our mantelpiece, alongside pictures of all the other deceased gameweeks.

Now our hips thrust wildly toward Gameweek 8, and in today’s email, we’re trying to balance tangible tips (like “who are the midfielders to buy now that Semenyo (and probably Saka) are out?”) with some incorporeal FPL concepts (like “what’s the vibe* at Crystal Palace?”).

As usual, we’ll also look at the best captaincy picks, see what our resident boffin is doing with his team and give you all the key stats. Heck, we might even have some fun along the way.

*Warning: This newsletter does indeed contain some vibes, which may impact some readers who are susceptible to vibe-induced vomiting.

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Summary for the Lazy: Saka got injured, but it’s good news for Haaland owners (i.e. you).

There’s more European action this week. In fact, as we click “send” on this email, Sunderland and Brighton are approaching half-time in Western Poland and Northern Czechia, respectively.

Bournemouth and Crystal Palace haven’t played yet, so we can’t shed any light on them, but here’s what we do know about the midweek matches that have been played - or that are currently playing - so far.

UCL.

Saka’s injury.

Saka limped off in the 10th minute against Bayern Munich, holding his hamstring. We don’t yet have a clear idea of what it means for him, but it’s usually bad when journalists use the same language to describe an injury as they would for an incoming hurricane. Words like “worrying”, “concerning” and, our personal favourite, “ominous” are being bandied about.

Haaland’s rest.

It’s better news for the Norse God, who, after some murmurings about an injury picked up at the end of Gameweek 7, was an unused substitute against Athens. If that wasn’t enough, Maresca confirmed he is “100% available” for Gameweek 8. His owners get the best of both worlds: confirmation that he’s fit, but still a proper rest during this congested fixture calendar. A rare thing indeed.

Man City win again.

Foden scored a hat-trick. You probably heard. Cherki also played 90 minutes (and scored). Anderson scored too.

In other news…

Europa League.

Sunderland are resting some of their key players against Lech Poznań, including Le Fée.

Conference League.

Brighton have started Groß vs FK Jablonec. De Cuyper and Gómez are out of the squad, but there’s no reason (at the time of sending) to be concerned.

Summary for the Lazy: Crystal Palace look bad. Bournemouth and Villa should be on your watchlist. Chelsea and Brighton are definitely good.

One two, one two. Check. One, one, one two.

Ah yes, the vibe check. On the scale of checks - mic checks, prostate checks, background checks, and Pavel Nedvěd - the vibe check has to be among the most irksome.

But it can be useful, too. The question we’re seeking to answer in this section is simple: How do good FPL managers feel about certain clubs?

Who are the season’s “whipping boys” so far?

If you look up “whipping boy” in the dictionary, you’ll find two definitions:

1) Young companions to 17th-century princes who took their punishments for them, because tutors weren’t allowed to strike royalty at the time.

2) Norwich City whenever they’re in the Premier League.

We’re basing this segment on the second interpretation.

Until recently, the narrative has been that there are no “bad” teams this season. The team we all expected to be bad (Hull City) have been surprisingly good. Indeed, all three of the promoted teams have shown spirit.

But Brighton's 5-0 win over Crystal Palace has somewhat derailed that narrative. Crystal Palace were bad in Gameweek 7, and with European commitments to contend with, good FPL managers increasingly see them as a team to target.

This is more than just a hunch. Crystal Palace are currently rock bottom for expected goals conceded (xGC) and second-bottom for shots on target against, which is, to use that word again, ominous.

Sunderland, Newcastle and Ipswich also have pensioner-level defensive fragility, and though Hull started the season with three clean sheets, their xGC has been among the highest since Gameweek 4.

Bournemouth are sleeping giants.

You might notice some accomplished managers talking about Bournemouth assets. In fact, at the time of writing (this particular section is being penned on a rainy Wednesday night, in case you’re interested), Tavernier is the second most-transferred-in player this week.

That’s because they’ve been unlucky - at least where the stats are concerned. They’ve conceded 13 goals from an xGC of 8.11, and scored just nine goals from an xG of 12.91.

In other words, statistically, Bournemouth have the third-best attack in the league and the second-best defence. They should not be 15th.

If you’re not literally licking your lips right now, can you even call yourself an FPL manager? When we see this kind of statistical anomaly, we should see a mouth-watering opportunity.

Bournemouth’s next fixtures are Man United (A), Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Hull (H). That’s pretty good. There are goals and clean sheets in that run, and if the stats are to be trusted (when have they ever lied?), there could be quite a few.

Brighton are good now.

This is the sort of cutting-edge insight you subscribe for, we know. Brighton are good.

They’re not just good in the “fringe-team-having-a-good-start-to-the-season” sense, though. Brighton are actually good.

Their defence is mid-table, statistically, but their attack is the second-best in the league for pretend, theoretical goals (i.e. expected goals) and top for real, actual goals.

It looks like this is the new reality, so we’d better get used to it. Brighton are now odds-on to finish top 5 this season, and FPL managers should act accordingly.

Liverpool (A), Man City (H), and Brentford (H) isn’t a great run, but if their 3-0 win against Arsenal is any indication, Brighton players can do it against anyone.

Chelsea are stabilising under Alonso.

Chelsea’s 5-1 thrashing of Bournemouth is all the more impressive when you consider the section above, which, if you skipped it, basically just waxes lyrical about how good Bournemouth are if you totally ignore what actually happens on the pitch.

But clean sheets are elusive for Chelsea. In fact, so far this calendar year, they’ve had more managers than Premier League clean sheets*.

After a 0-2 win at Everton last gameweek, that tide might be changing. With Caicedo back in the team, Chelsea look far more solid. Argentinian sources say Martínez is expected to be out for 45-60 days, but his deputy, the £4.4m Penders, looks like a more-than-capable replacement. One to watch.

*If you count interim managers, which, for the sake of making this joke work, we do.

Keep an eye on Villa.

Villa (or Aston Villa, if you’re their mother) haven’t had the best start to the season, but two wins and a draw from their last three games are bucking that trend. They’re sort of doing a reverse-Hull. Perhaps they switched bodies in a Freaky-Friday-esque trade-off just before the international break.

In any case, they’re 3/3 wins in the UCL, and they seem to be settling into the Premier League season now, too. After Man City this week, their fixtures get a lot better in all. Jackson and Manzambi are particularly interesting for this run.

Summary for the Lazy: Mbeumo, Tavernier, Gibbs-White.

At the time of writing (still a Wednesday night - we’re on a roll, apparently), the severity of Saka’s injury is unknown. He might not need replacing, but given Arteta’s post-match comments (“it does not look good at all”), it’s likely he will.

But this was originally intended as a Semenyo replacement section, who is most certainly out for a decent amount of time (around 8 weeks, cheers Maresca).

Who you’re replacing isn’t really important. The bigger question is: Who do you replace them with? Here are three prospects we like (plus a few differentials, if you’re really lucky).

1) Mbeumo (£7.8m).

Let’s acknowledge the armchair pundit in the room: Man United are not in a good place at the moment.

But bad teams can still hide good FPL assets, and they don’t get much better than Mbeumo at the moment. His expected goal involvements (xGI) of 4.86 is the highest among midfielders, and with reports that Šeško could be out until the New Year, it’s reasonable to expect Mbeumo will play more games up front (as he did against Leeds and Spurs).

Whilst it’s probably too early to use words like “talisman” to describe the Cameroonian, it does feel like he’s single-handedly hauling this Man United team through the mud at the moment.

2) Tavernier (£6.2m).

The fourth-highest xGI amongst midfielders belongs to Bournemouth’s Tavernier.

We like Tavernier because he’s already scored four goals and he might be on penalties (though it’s unclear whether Kluivert will take all or some penalties when he’s on the pitch).

He also plays for Bournemouth and, for reasons we’ve already covered, we think Bournemouth are due some results soon. They’ve got a nice run of fixtures coming up, and Tavernier looks to be the most obvious beneficiary.

3) Gibbs-White (£7.9m).

Gibbs-White is not exactly lighting up the Premier League. He has one goal and two assists so far, which is about right for his 3.5xGI.

Cheers then.

But seriously, he was unlucky not to return in Gameweek 6 against Crystal Palace, and then he missed Gameweek 7 with an injury. 3.5xGI is enough to put him 7th amongst midfielders, and he’s got Ipswich next.

His fixtures after that aren’t great (Brentford, Man City, Bournemouth, Chelsea), but being on penalties gives him routes to points against any opponent.

Some bonus differentials.

Fine, you’ve twisted our arm. Here are some differentials we like:

Summary for the Lazy: It’s Haaland, but there are options this week.

Haaland has Aston Villa away in the early kick-off*. Every word in that sentence after “has” is terrible news for FPL managers.

But the Norse God’s form is so exceptionally good, and his ownership so astronomically high, that it’s hard to look past him.

Still, if we were going to try, we’d look to Pedro or Rogers vs Spurs. Chelsea vs Spurs is always a spicy fixture, and given the form of both sides here, it’s hard to see Spurs keeping out Chelsea’s attackers for long.

Saka vs Everton would’ve been the other obvious candidate, but with a big question mark over his fitness, we don’t think it’s worth the risk unless we get some clarity before the deadline.

*Question for the reader: Is it still an early kick-off when there’s a Friday night game? One for the philosophers among you.

The Professor was always to make one transfer this week.

The plan is still in place, but like Saka’s muscles, it’s been tweaked. Here’s his team prior to any transfers (he’ll be waiting until Friday to make his move).

At the start of the week, Enzo was on the chopping block after some concerning early data in a Man City shirt.

But with Arteta’s unambiguous concern for Saka after the Bayern Munich game, he’s the one to make way.

Like any sane manager, the Prof is waiting for press conference news before making his move, but if Schade is confirmed fit enough to start, he’ll be the likely purchase.

Haaland gets the armband.

It’s Halloween next week. Maybe we’ll do something truly scary, like show you pictures of red-carded triple captains.

See you next Friday, if you’re brave enough.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.