⏰ Gameweek 6’s deadline is Saturday, 10th October, 11:00 BST ⏰

👀 Our bonus newsletter discusses international break injuries and the Man City verdict.

🤕 Scott is out for 4-5 weeks.

🤦 Brobbey is ruled out of Gameweek 6 with a hamstring injury.

🤞 Palmer is “confident of being fit” for Gameweek 6 - Simon Phillips. Both he and Pedro were pictured arriving at training (though it wasn’t confirmed whether they trained).

🔵 Haaland and Semenyo were pictured in training this week. Maresca says Haaland is “good” and “ready” for Liverpool.

🎤 Iraola on Isak and Gakpo: “It's a matter of if they are going to recover in time to help us in the next game or not. But right now, they are both injured.”

Alright?

We made it. Not that we had to do a huge amount - FPL is a famously sedentary pastime - but still, a three-week international break is as close to an endurance challenge as it gets for FPL managers. This was our Everest, only somehow we’ve all managed to gain weight whilst scaling it.

In today’s email, we’ll decompress by looking ahead to Gameweek 6. It’s a big Wildcard week, so we'll focus on fixture swings, players we like, and what the good managers are doing.

FPL is back. Let’s see what it has in store.

It’s a big week for press conference news this week. With so many yellow flags, every morsel of news we get prior to the Gameweek 6 deadline is crucial.

That’s partly why so many managers trust our WhatsApp Broadcast Channel, which is a one-way feed of need-to-know FPL news as it comes in. If there are early team leaks, embargoed press conference comments, or pre-deadline insider info, it goes there first.

(Oh, and it’s also where our pundits post their final teams before every deadline).

It’s one of the many features of LazyFPL Premium, and when you sign-up, you’ll get an invite link to the group in your welcome email.

Summary for the Lazy: Waiting for the press conferences and, in some instances, activating their Wildcards.

First and foremost, good managers are waiting for the press conferences for news about their yellow-flagged players. That includes updates on players like Pedro, Konsa, Palmer, Tzolis and Isak.

News on these players doesn’t just impact potential transfer decisions, but also captaincy. We’ll get to captaincy later but, spoilers, it’s not a straightforward decision this week.

Plenty of managers are on a Wildcard over this international break, giving them fluidity in how they respond to any confirmed absences. Those who aren’t will be particularly intentional about their bench order, and will, as good managers tend to do, prioritise guaranteed minutes when choosing a captain.

Some scenarios that might help you with your decisions this week:

If Pedro, Semenyo or Palmer are ruled out: You may want to keep them for now, unless they’re ruled out for longer than two gameweeks. Particularly if free transfers are at a premium.

If Isak is ruled out: Isak is probably on thin ice for you anyway. Possible replacements could include Barry, Calvert-Lewin, Wissa or Fulham’s García. Thiago is an interesting differential, too.

If Konsa is ruled out: With Saliba expected back at the start of November, and Mosquera back on the scene, Konsa’s minutes may be managed anyway. Bournemouth’s Silva and Leeds’ Muharemović both look good as possible replacements.

Summary for the Lazy: Just look at the dang draft.

We shared this sample Wildcard team in our bonus newsletter. Use this team much like you'd use a PE kit from lost property. It won’t fit you perfectly, but it’ll save you from humiliation if you’re in a pinch.

Let’s talk about a few of these picks:

Konsa

Since we shared our team earlier in the week, Konsa has picked up an injury. It sounds unserious - a dead leg, which, now that we type it out, sounds like the worst possible thing that can happen to a leg. It coincides with murmurs of Saliba’s return in early November, and Mosquera’s return to training.

Konsa is probably on the thinnest ice out of everyone in our team. We’ve got £1m in the bank, so plenty of room to upgrade him if needed.

Groß

Groß is the highest-scoring midfielder in the game right now. Apologies for the spoiler, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be the highest-scoring midfielder by Gameweek 38. His stats (2.6 expected goal involvements) belie his actual returns (three goals, four assists), which is usually a sign that a player is due to slow down.

But these stats ignore his best attribute: He’s only £5.9m. He doesn’t need to maintain his current rate of returns to justify his price tag. An xGI of 2.6 still puts him 7th amongst midfielders for this stat, which is more than acceptable for a sub-£6.0m midfielder. Don’t overthink this one.

Saka

Saka has the highest expected goal involvements (4.2) amongst midfielders, and the second-highest in the game (behind Haaland). Havertz’s injury might open the door to Gyökeres, which could, in turn, affect Saka’s penalty duties, but regardless, he’s worth the money.

Rogers (but not Palmer)

Palmer is perhaps the most conspicuously absent player here. There’s a parallel universe in which he makes the cut, but in this particular thread of existence, he doesn’t.

When you look at his returns, the stance becomes a lot less controversial. Palmer only has two goals and two assists, and half of those came in Gameweek 1. He’s lucky to have four returns, too - his xGI is just 2.1. Over the last three games, he’s had one assist from fewer than 1.00xGI.

All of which is to say: He’s not performing well enough to justify his £9.7m outlay.

Rogers, meanwhile, has four goal involvements from 2.95xGI. He’s getting better opportunities for returns, and costs £1.9m less.

Mbeumo

Despite Man United's disappointing start to the season, Mbeumo’s numbers are very impressive. He has 0.01 fewer expected goal involvements than Bruno and the third-highest expected goal involvements in the league among midfielders.

Interestingly*, Mbeumo is the most transferred-out player so far this season; such was his popularity in Gameweek 1. We think it could be a mistake. The Man United man has Spurs (H), Leeds (A) and Bournemouth (H) next, which is a relatively nice run.

*Warning: It might be interesting to FPL managers, but it’s not interesting in general. Refrain from raising this point whilst on a date or during a conversation with an elderly relative.

Where’s Fulham?

Fulham’s fixture run over the next three gameweeks is being touted as the best ever in Premier League history. They’ll play all three promoted teams consecutively, which, whilst we’re too lazy to verify, is probably the first time that’s ever happened.

So, on that basis alone, there’s certainly a case for them. García (£6.0m FWD) and King (£5.6m MID) are prime candidates. Their defence could also be worth a look. Leno, their £4.5m goalkeeper, and Castagne, who has put up some decent attacking stats for a £4.5m defender, are the most reliable routes in.

We haven’t picked them here because, whilst they play the three promoted teams, those aren’t the three worst teams in the league at the moment, and none are necessarily any worse than Fulham on current form. Combined with the fact that their collective player ownership is so low, it means even if they do hit some form, the damage will be limited.

Summary for the Lazy: Fulham have the best fixture swing, Liverpool have the worst.

A fixture swing is when the difficulty of a team’s fixtures changes, for better or for worse.

As we’ve already mentioned, Fulham have a great fixture swing because their fixtures are about to get much easier. According to the LazyFPL Premium fixture tracker, they have the best fixture swing over the next five weeks.

On the other end of the scale, Liverpool have the worst fixture swing. Having had a relatively nice start to the season (Newcastle, Nottingham Forest, Ipswich, Fulham, Bournemouth), they’ll now play Man City, Brentford, Brighton and Arsenal in their next four.

Other teams that have a nice fixture swing are Sunderland, Coventry, Ipswich and Arsenal.

Leeds, Man United, Nottingham Forest and Spurs can expect a bigger challenge over the next five gameweeks.

Summary for the Lazy: You should probably worry more about upcoming fixture congestion than charges.

As we discussed in our bonus newsletter, the impact of Man City’s guilty verdict on the players remains to be seen.

Until a punishment is issued, it’s easy to imagine how the rhetoric around this case might be used as fuel inside the Man City camp. Maresca may turn it into a battle cry, like a rich Lord rallying his troops to defend his castle against the angry townsfolk.

So let’s set that aside, because the usual FPL worries apply more than the pending punishment. Man City play a midweek game every week from now until the next international break (after Gameweek 10), and with a squad the size of theirs, it means rotation will be even more rife than usual.

Man City aren’t alone here, by the way. Every team in Europe faces the same fixture congestion, though most don’t have Man City’s squad depth.

We’ve talked about the importance of expected minutes in previous newsletters, but it's worth repeating: minutes are worth their weight in gold. Whilst the likes of Cherki and Semenyo are tempting, it’s not clear how Maresca will prioritise his squad going forward. Could we see more of Ndiaye in the Premier League? Will players like Enzo and Anderson be substituted early ahead of important midweek fixtures?

Where there’s risk, there’s reward. Man City have some excellent home fixtures coming up, and they’ll probably score plenty of points in those games. But in a season with an embarrassment of options so far, it’s a risk plenty of top managers are unwilling to take.

Summary for the Lazy: It’s Bruno if you own him, but Saka and Haaland will be popular.

There are a few options this week, so brace yourself.

Maresca has confirmed that Haaland, who visits Liverpool, is fit for Gameweek 6, and a fit Norse God is always a captaincy option.

Saka will host Leeds in the early kick-off. Statistically, Leeds have the fifth-best defence in the league, so this isn’t as plum as it might look. And Gandhi’s words, despite being superstitious nonsense, prove to be annoyingly apt most of the time:

Given his stats and the fact that Arsenal are really, really good, he’ll be a popular captain amongst his owners.

Bruno vs Spurs is tempting for any owners who've been patient with him.

Our captaincy rankings:

1) Bruno vs Spurs (H).

2) Saka vs Leeds (H).

3) Haaland vs Liverpool (A).

Because of his ownership, we think Haaland will be the most popular captain, but with home advantage and extra points for goals and clean sheets, the premium midfielders edge it for us.

Like a young Fred Durst, The Professor is doing everything he can to roll this week.

That means sweating a number of yellow flags:

He’ll be listening closely to this week’s manager press conferences before locking in his team.

Despite Gandhi’s cautions, Saka gets the armband.

Gameweek 7 is another Saturday deadline, so we’ll be back in your inbox at the same time next week. Try to suppress your excitement until then.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.