FPL Gameweek 35 | Everything you need to know.

The Stuff You Should Know

🚨 Gameweek 35’s deadline is Friday, 2nd May, 18:30 BST.

👀 There will be no Doubles or Blanks for the remainder of the season. It’s 10-fixture gameweeks from here on out.

👀 Erling Haaland is back in training, but Pep has said he probably won’t be ready for Wolves.

🤕 Marcus Rashford is set to miss the rest of the season with a hamstring injury (David Ornstein).

🚩 Evanilson’s red card has been rescinded, and he’ll be available for Gameweek 35.

Keep reading for The Prof’s surprise captaincy pick.

Alright?

Around three hours ago, we received confirmation that there’ll be no Double or Blank Gameweeks for the remainder of the season.

As such, the majority of the newsletter we had written, which factored in the possibility that there might still be doubles and blanks, had to be scrapped. Woe is us.

What you’re reading is our hasty attempt to rewrite it in the ~90 minutes between real work ending and the 24h FPL deadline klaxon.

In the original version, we’d even created this image to illustrate the two feasible scenarios (Double Gameweek 36 vs Normal Gameweek 36), which we feel contains too much artistic talent not to share:

It’s Gameweek 35. A normal gameweek, just like 36, 37 and 38 will be, apparently.

Whatever.

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Gameweek 35’s fixtures.

No doubles or blanks.

Summary for the Lazy: It’s official: every gameweek from here on out is a regular gameweek.

On Thursday, we learned that there will be no more blanks and doubles this season. Rearranged fixtures will now remain within the squidgy confines of Gameweek 37.

Spurs had requested that their Gameweek 37 game against Aston Villa - scheduled for Sunday 18th May - be moved to Gameweek 36, which would’ve given both teams a double. Whilst we haven’t had an official announcement from either club at the time of writing, it’s safe to assume their request (which was vehemently opposed by Villa) has been unsuccessful.

What does this mean for FPL managers?

That chill pill we’ve been telling you to swallow might go down a little smoother now, particularly if, as was the conventional play, you’ve already used your chips.

If you’ve still got a chip left, you might not have the golden opportunity you were hoping for to maximise its potential, but at least you have clarity now. We can all approach the season’s final gameweeks with the same, boring strategy we would’ve done otherwise.

The fixture schedule is no longer a factor, so different variables become centre-stage. One big consideration is the amount a team still has to play for. Let’s talk about that.

Do teams need something to play for?

Summary for the Lazy: It definitely makes a difference.

Thankfully, we didn’t have to do the research for this bit - the good folks at AnalyticsFC have already done it for us.

In their excellent blog published around this time last year, they discuss the impact of still having something to play for vs being ‘on the beach’.

The summary for the lazy? Teams that have nothing to play for score more and concede more, on average.

The theory here is that teams without a strong vested interest in the outcome of a game are more likely to play with the sort of careless abandon that can lead to scoring more goals, but also leave them more vulnerable in defence.

Which is surprising, right? There’s a narrative that teams with something to play for are more likely to score more goals because of their extra determination. But the data here suggests otherwise.

When viewed through an FPL lens, we can use this knowledge to gain an edge. Teams without anything to play for are more likely to be involved in open, free-scoring games.

Teams with something still to play for in the Premier League:

Due to various permutations, up to 10 Premier League teams could qualify for a European position this season.

The Premier League itself published an article about the various scenarios earlier this week, and even they sound confused by it all.

In short, every team listed below technically still has something to play for:

Arsenal: BOU (H); LIV (A); NEW (H); SOU (A)
Newcastle: BHA (A); CHE (H); ARS (A); EVE (H)
Forest: BRE (H); CRY (A); LEI (H); WHU (A); CHE (H)
Man City: WOL (H); SOU (A); BOU (H); FUL (A)
Chelsea: LIV (H); NEW (A); MUN (H); NFO (A)
Aston Villa: FUL (H); BOU (A); TOT (H); MUN (A)
Bournemouth: ARS (A); AVL (H); MCI (A); LEI (H)
Fulham: AVL (A); EVE (H); BRE (A); MCI (H)
Brighton: NEW (H); WOL (A); LIV (H); TOT (A)
Brentford: NFO (A); MUN (H); IPS (A); FUL (H); WOL (A)
Crystal Palace: NFO (H); TOT (A); WOL (H); LIV (A)

Whilst Spurs and Man United could also qualify for European football, they can’t do it via the league. As such, their interest in the Premier League is the same as any other team out of reach of a European spot.

What about rotation?

It’s hard to find concrete evidence that Premier League teams with nothing to play for rotate more, but we all have an intuitive sense that teams play a more varied line-up once the stakes of winning or losing have been removed.

This is particularly true on the last day of the season, when squad players are occasionally wheeled out for a final swansong.

But there’s a reason it’s more of a footnote in this section rather than a headline: We just can’t know. There’s no formula for predicting who will be rotated and when. As such, we’re forced to assume that the players we want to pick will play as regularly as they have been all season.

End of season tactics.

Now that we’re in sniffing distance of the end of the season, the best FPL tactics might be slightly different for you, depending on how your campaign is going.

We’re not usually a fan of differentials, but if you’ve got nothing to lose, they might be a viable strategy.

Take a moment to consider your ambitions for this season - be it a mini-league win or a top 100k finish - and place yourself on this incredibly sophisticated scale we built:

As a general rule of thumb, the more “in the red” you are, the more viable differentials are.

Warning: Differentials usually go wrong. That’s why they’re differentials: The majority of managers have decided against them.

But let’s imagine you’re the Spurs of your mini-league. Languishing towards the bottom after a disappointing season. Do you really have much to lose at this point? Does it make a difference whether you finish 14th or 17th? If it doesn’t, you might as well give it one last push.

If only there was a devilishly handsome FPL newsletter giving you a few differential options…

Three differentials we like this gameweek.

Three teams have particularly good fixtures going into the final sprint: Brentford, Manchester City, and Everton.

Brentford: Man United (H), Ipswich (A), Fulham (H), Wolves (A)
Man City: Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
Everton: Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Southampton (H) and Newcastle (A)

Looking at these three sides, some obvious names ought to be jumping out: Bryan Mbeumo, Yoanne Wissa, Omar Marmoush and Josko Gvardiol, to name a few.

It’s no coincidence that all four of those names are currently in the top 5 most-transferred in players this week:

But for those seeking out the non-obvious, here are some differentials we like:

1) Erling Haaland - £14.8m - from Gameweek 36.

Woah there, hang on a moment. Isn’t the Norse God gravely injured? Not according to this rather unsettling selfie he shared on Thursday:

The idea of the Premier League’s most prolific scorer against this bunch is, at the very least, intriguing: Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A).

Pep has confirmed that Wolves will likely come a bit too soon for him, but if he starts against Southampton, it could be huge for anyone brave enough to splash out on him.

Marco Asensio - £6.2m

We can’t help but feel like Asensio would be in everyone’s team this week if he had only scored those two missed penalties in Gameweek 32.

As it is, he’s owned by just 3.3% of managers. Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H) and Man United (A) await the Spaniard, which is hardly a terrible run.

With Aston Villa’s attention now focused solely on the Premier League, and the news that Marcus Rashford is out for the remainder of the season, Asensio’s contributions could be pivotal in securing European football for Villa next season.

Jordan Pickford - £5.1m

Imagine being Pickford. You’re England’s No. 1, you’re the second-highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL and you’ve got the best arse in the Premier League.

And yet, you’re only owned by 15% of managers.

No Everton player has picked up more BPS points than Pickford this season, and he’ll play Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Southampton (H) and Newcastle (A) in his final four games. Two of those sides are already relegated.

James Tarkowski is out, which is a big blow for them, but Pickford is as sure a starter as you can get and probably the most reliable way to take advantage of Everton’s nice run.

The best captain for Gameweek 35.

As with last week, Mohamed Salah away at Chelsea, his former club, will be the most popular captain in Gameweek 35. The fact that he plays later on Sunday is a nice bonus, too, as it prolongs the inevitable captaincy disappointment.

In most gameweeks, it’s really easy to find a differential captain. You just pick the top scorer of whichever team is playing Southampton.

But on this occasion, that happens to be Leicester, and Jamie Vardy’s seven goals aren’t really doing it for us.

Then there’s Bryan Mbeumo. The most popular transfer this week, Mbeumo is picking up suitors who fancy him against a Man United team that, as confirmed by Ruben Amorim, will rotate ahead of the second leg of their Europa League semi-final.

Frustratingly, Mbeumo is yet to play Blank Gameweek 34’s fixture at the time of sending this newsletter, which means he could end up injured or suspended by the time we get to Gameweek 35. Assuming he’s available, he’ll be the pick for the hipster manager who respects the data.

Wait a second, don’t we know one of those?

At the time of sending this newsletter, the Professor is ranked at 49k, following an emphatic 100 points on his Free Hit.

Of course, bench points and the small matter of Nottingham Forest vs Brentford will change his rank, but still, he’s well placed to achieve yet another consecutive top 100k finish.

Assuming Bryan Mbeumo remains fit, The Professor is bringing him in and captaining him.

Bukayo Saka, a huge rotation risk this week given Arsenal’s UCL semi-final, will make way for the Brentford man.

Here’s how his team looks now, prior to that transfer being made:

Sometimes, the Professor makes very last-minute changes. The moves he made on his Free Hit about 30 minutes before last week’s deadline resulted in a +20 point swing.

If you want to be in on his moves as they happen, and the moves of our other experts, you can upgrade to LazyFPL Premium for a fiver a month. It’ll give you access to our WhatsApp community, two extra weekly emails, exclusive mini-leagues and loads more.

The Key Stats for Gameweek 35.

Other stuff we found interesting.

1. Liverpool have won the Premier League.

2. Ipswich Town have been relegated.

3. Remember, if you still have your Assistant Manager chip, you must use it this gameweek or next if you want to get all three fixtures from it.

We’ll be back next Friday afternoon ahead of a dismally normal Gameweek 36.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.