The stuff you should know.
⏰ Gameweek 30’s deadline is Saturday, 14th March, 13:30 GMT ⏰
🧤 Alisson pulled up in training with an issue on Monday, which is why Giorgi Mamardashvili played in the Champions League. Slot expects the Brazilian to rejoin team training today (Friday).
🏆 Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Leeds and West Ham progress to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup. We’ll discuss the implications.
🎙️ Harry Wilson is back in training after “a bit of a knock” and hoping to be good for Sunday.
👍 Florian Wirtz returns from injury for Liverpool.
👀 Remember, next gameweek (Gameweek 31) is a blank. Man City, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Wolves won’t have a fixture.
Alright?
The season turns 30. Suddenly, it’s become obsessed with mortgage rate fluctuations and making its own kombucha.
But whilst turning 30 might mean the end of an era for many of us, for the season, it’s very much the start of one. Enjoy this weekend, because once it’s over, things get tumultuous.
In today’s newsletter, we’ll talk about Gameweek 30, but we’ll also be looking ahead to the angry maelstrom in the distance, and attempting to answer a simple question: What the hell do we do about it?
Heatmaps on FotMob 🔥
One reason why we always recommend FotMob is that it’s always improving. The latest addition - live player heatmaps - is a classic example.
So if you’re interested in whether Bruno Fernandes is playing in a more advanced role, you can take a look at his latest heatmap and decide for yourself:
Bruno’s heatmap in Gameweek 29.
These heatmaps update live, and, combined with live stats, FPL points, DEFCON, shot maps and player ratings, give FPL managers yet another way to scrutinise their players during a game on FotMob.
Gameweek 30’s fixtures.
What’s happened since we last spoke?
Lazy Summary: Thiago scores a brace, Haaland is fit, Wirtz returns and the Premier League’s coefficient suffers a blow.
Between the FA Cup and European knockouts, there’s been a string of football joining last gameweek with this one.
If you want the full details, line-ups, stats, player ratings and - yes - heatmaps now too, head to FotMob.
But if you’re too lazy for that, here’s a list of the particularly noteworthy stuff:
Player availability
Erling Haaland missed their FA Cup game, but started for Man City in the UCL.
Florian Wirtz returned to Liverpool’s starting XI after his injury.
Daniel Muñoz missed Thursday’s Conference League knockout but is targeting a return against Leeds this Sunday.
Crysencio Summerville is ruled out of Gameweek 30 with injury.
Notable performances
Chelsea (5-2), Spurs (5-2) and Man City (3-0) all lost their first UCL legs by a three-goal margin.
Igor Thiago and Jarrod Bowen both scored a brace in their FA Cup face-off on Monday.
Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Leeds and West Ham progress to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
Strategy corner: The latest fixture changes.
Lazy summary: Nothing has changed yet. Stick to your plan - but keep an eye on the FA Cup quarter-finals.
Let’s start with this image, courtesy of Ben Crellin:
To the untrained eye, it looks like a confusing spreadsheet.
To the trained eye, it still looks like a confusing spreadsheet, but with glimmers of insight.
It confirms the following:
Blank Gameweek 31 - Arsenal, Man City, Wolves and Crystal Palace will definitely blank.
Double Gameweek 33 - This still looks like the most likely “big double”.
Blank Gameweek 34 - This is the mirror of Double Gameweek 33 - any team that doubles in 33 will miss 34.
Double Gameweek 36 - This could also happen, but isn’t expected to be as big as Double Gameweek 33.
Has anything happened to change the chip strategy?
The prescribed chip strategy (Wildcard in Gameweek 32, Bench Boost in Gameweek 33, Free Hit in Gameweek 34) remains the best play, but there are plenty of permutations. These include the outcomes of the FA Cup quarter-finals and the European knockout stages, as well as more inane variables like TV broadcasting rights.
It’s complicated. Avril Lavigne would hate it.
But we’re lazy, so we don’t need to worry about those permutations. All we can do is use the information we have and hope that we don’t end up looking like ejits.
Locking in a plan now is fruitless, but we’ll know way more once the FA Cup quarter-finals have resolved. This will happen before Gameweek 32.
Time is your friend here. For now, stick to Plan A and don’t make any sudden movements.
So what should you do this week?
Lazy summary: Roll a transfer if you can.
Assuming you have at least a few Arsenal and Man City players, this is the penultimate gameweek to ensure you’re able to field a viable team of players ahead of Blank Gameweek 31.
For most good managers, that means rolling a transfer if their teams allow it.
Sure, a move can be made this week, but that leaves more room for things to go wrong, like your new player getting injured before Blank Gameweek 31.
The optimal move is to store your free transfers and use them as close to the Blank Gameweek 31 deadline as possible.
The best captain for Gameweek 30.
Lazy summary: It’s Bruno Fernandes, though João Pedro will likely be the most popular pick amongst the general population.
Not an easy one this week. Four players deserve a mention:
Erling Haaland
Bruno Fernandes
João Pedro
Hugo Ekitike
Let’s briefly discuss all four.
Haaland
Always capable of destruction, but visits a doggedly determined West Ham team that has kept three clean sheets in its last five games. Not in the greatest form, either.
Fernandes
Villa have been really poor lately, and also had to play an away game in Europe on Thursday night. They conceded four goals last gameweek against Chelsea, but it’s hard to know which Villa will turn up. Remember, Fernandes has great DEFCON and assist potential, and gets an extra point for a goal.
João Pedro
The most in-form player in the league, with great stats as well. Will host a Newcastle team that has conceded an uncharacteristically high number of goals (14 in their last six Premier League games).
Ekitike
Plays Spurs.
For us, Fernandes edges it for two key reasons:
Every other option has an important midweek fixture, which makes the Man United man the most likely to play the whole game.
He’s the only midfielder here, which gives him more routes to points.
It’s very close, mind. Pedro will be hugely popular, and there are picks we haven’t mentioned (like Igor Thiago at home to Wolves) who also merit the wondering eye of managers looking for a differential pick.
The Professor is rolling his transfer this week, as per the “decent manager playbook”.
In recent Premium newsletters and podcasts, The Prof has been analysing Elliot Anderson’s new role under Vítor Pereira and his increased shot volume.
That all came to fruition last gameweek, and he gets the start over Enzo Fernández this week.
Bruno Fernandes gets the armband.
Player form (Last 6)
Team form (Last 6)
Your Gameweek 30 checklist.
🔄 Roll a transfer if you can.
🍟 Nothing has changed since Gameweek 29 that should impact your chip strategy.
🧘 Enjoy the calm before the storm.
Next gameweek is a blank. We know, we know, but it’s going to be okay. We’ll be in your inbox on Thursday evening to guide you through it.
Stay lazy,
The LazyFPL Team.