🚨 GW21: the moves to make ✅

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Gameweek 21’s rescheduled deadline is Friday 12th January, 18:15 GMT.

🤕 Alexander-Arnold “out for three weeks”.

🤦‍♂️ Bowen suffers ankle injury. Likely to miss at least one Premier League game.

👍 De Bruyne returns to football with Grealish-esque curtains, but expects to be benched in GW21.

🤨 Haaland’s fitness status still a mystery.

✅ Ivan Toney is eligible to play this gameweek.

🤝 Spurs sign Timo Werner on loan, listed as a £6.5m forward.

🌍 AFCON and the Asian Cup start this weekend. Son and Salah amongst absentees.

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Alright?

Quite a bit has happened over the last few weeks, but whilst injuries, absences and new signings are important, nothing trumps the quiet little announcement that Blank Gameweek 2’s postponed Burnley vs Luton fixture (remember that? Neither do we) is being rescheduled for Friday 12th January.

A deadline change so late in the day is very rare, and it will cause disgruntlement amongst the lesser-engaged demographic of FPL managers.

If you’re reading this prior to the revised deadline, you’re in a rather unusual position of power. That’s because at least one manager you know won’t have realised that the deadline has moved. You probably already know who: it’s likely the same person who bought in Mohamed Salah after his 16-pointer last week.

Like Commodus in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator, you have the final say over whether to keep quiet and kill their gameweek now or offer it a chance of survival by letting them know.

Hopefully the answer is obvious. If we’ve taught you anything, it’s that the satisfaction derived from helping out fellow FPL managers is worth far more than an edge in your mini-league…

…

…nah, just kidding. Fuck ‘em.

Let’s fight on to Gameweek 21, smug in the knowledge that we know exactly when it gets underway.

What to do with Salah and Son?

We’ll start by reusing this graphic, not least because it’s the best visualisation of when we can expect our pricey stars to return to the warm bosom of the Premier League.

Understandably, most managers are getting rid of Son Heung-min and Mohamed Salah. Indeed, as I type, there’s been a combined 3.2m transfers OUT for the pair.

The Professor wrote extensively a few weeks ago about some possible alternatives, but FPL moves fast, and the best options then are different to the best options now.

Here are four midfielders to consider, including two differentials. Don’t say we don’t treat you.

1) Phil Foden (£7.9m - most popular transfer in aside from Cole Palmer)

Just as the moon goes through its monthly lunar phase, so to do FPL managers go through their monthly “is Phil Foden worth buying?” phase.

However which way you swing it, Foden’s stats aren’t electric this season. He has a 0.63 expected goal involvement per ‘90 over his last four games, which is pretty good, but there are still eight midfielders above him in that category.

This, combined with the fact that he has the hair of an orthodox monk, doesn’t exactly make him an essential purchase in this post-Salah dystopian.

That he’s notched four attacking returns in his last three games, plus a brace in their 5-0 thrashing FA Cup dismantling of Huddersfield, certainly does make him a tempting pick though. Providing he stays nailed, he’s a great way into that Man City attack. Verdict: 7.5/10.

2) Pascal Gross (£6.4m - 4.5% owned)

Brighton’s fixtures are very good between now and mid-March, encompassing an eight-game run in which Spurs - hardly defensive stalwarts at the moment - are their most challenging opponents.

WOL, lut, CRY, tot, shu, EVE, ful, NFO await.

Much has been made of “getting on that run”, and Pascal Gross/Groß/Grough/Grohl/Groot is the stand-out pick.

With the fourth-highest expected goal involvement amongst midfielders over the last six gameweeks, Gross has picked up returns in three of his last six fixtures. Is he the droid you’ve been looking for? Verdict: 6.5/10.

3) Martin Odegaard (£8.4m - 16.3% owned)

Firstly, a quick acknowledgement: Bukayo Saka is a good pick, but I haven’t included him here because either you already know that, or you already own him. Let’s not waste our time extolling his virtues when his colleague, Martin Odegaard, is still somewhat overlooked.

At 16.3% owned, Odegaard is the artisanal norse earthenware to Saka’s IKEA student crockery set.

He pairs well with Saka if you already own the Englishman, but can hold his own as a statement piece too. His recent stats are good (although not exceptional) and he probably should’ve had more than just two returns over the last six gameweeks. Verdict: 7/10.

4) Richarlison (£6.9m, behave)

A midfielder masquerading as a forward for one of the league’s best attacking teams, Richarlison should already be essential on paper.

He isn’t, primarily because he has a history of injury, rotation and wastefulness in front of goal.

That appears to be changing. Indeed, Richarlison has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games.

There’s a german spanner in the works: the loan signing of Timo Werner.

We’ve done some digging here, and here’s what we’ve found:

• most Spurs fans expect Werner to play on the left, if he plays at all.

• Werner hasn’t played a huge amount this season for Leipzig and isn’t necessarily expected to walk into the Spurs starting XI right away.

• Richarlison’s starting berth will be a more serious concern once Son and James Maddison have returned.

Maddison is reportedly back in full training next week, so we reckon Richarlison makes for a pretty nice short-term replacement but is a risk for longer than 2-3 gameweeks. Verdict: 7.8/10.

The latest with Haaland (and De Bruyne).

Erling Haaland’s fitness status is a few twists away from being turned into an unsolved mystery podcast series.

Five days ago, Pep said the following:

“Erling, little bit better. Bone [issue], [must be a] little bit more careful. Two, three [training] sessions [with the team] - the day after, feels good. I don't know for Sunday, I don't know for Newcastle. The next [games after that], will be ready.”

More brackets than a Screwfix warehouse.

He was out of the squad in Sunday’s FA Cup tie, but it appears he won’t spend too much longer on the sidelines.

Remarkably, he’s one of the most transferred out and most transferred in players this week. Over 280,000 managers have got rid, but a further ~350,000 have decided now is the time to bring him back.

In our view, neither of these moves is particularly smart. We have very little information at the moment - certainly not enough to gamble valuable transfers on.

When I drop £13.9m on bringing him back, , I want to be confident enough he’ll play to captain him. I’m certainly not there yet.

A quick note on De Bruyne: he’s back on the pitch but, in his words, “I’ll expect to be back on the bench [against Newcastle]”. One for Gameweek 22? Quite possibly.

Wildcard, hits and the smart moves this week.

A lot of points hits will be taken this week. There’s an unspoken accord amongst most active managers: if we all do it, none of us have to suffer.

With Son and Salah out, plus injuries to the likes of Trent and Bowen, many are faced with a predicament: how many points is my Wildcard really worth?

In our view, the value of a Wildcard is measured by the unique potential benefit it’ll have on your set of players. However, because that answer is far from satisfactory, we’d say it’s worth at least 12 points. In other words, if you can do with a -12 point hit what you would’ve done with a Wildcard, you should probably be keeping your Wildcard for a rainier day.

This is not a concrete rule, and hinges on factors like how many gameweeks are left and your aims for the season, but it’s a handy guide if you’re on the fence.

The flip-side to Gameweek 21’s normalisation of hits is that those not taking one suddenly find themselves in a rather exclusive group of “non-hitters”. Indeed, there’s a school of thought that argues Mohamed Salah should be benched for the duration of his absence and a hit to get rid is a lavish expenditure.

We’re of the view that a -4 is a small price to pay for your pick of literally any other midfielder in the game, but we’re also of the view that FPL is at least partly about having fun, and having an unlimited budget to splurge on a midfielder certainly is fun.

It’s important not to homogenise your hits: getting rid of Salah as part of a -8 hit isn’t the same as spending eight points on a new midfielder: you’re spending four points, and if you feel you can profit to the tune of four points by making the move, you should do it regardless of how many hits you’re taking.

Gameweek 21’s Best Captain.

This week is a free for all. With our usual favourites all at international tournaments or injury doubts, it’s the wild west out there.

The most popular pick amongst active managers will likely be Cole Palmer at home to Fulham. His 18-pointer last gameweek has not only attracted over 1m new transfers in for the Chelsea man, but has also made him ripe for the captaincy picking.

Palmer aside, there are very few “obvious” picks. An Arsenal player at home to Crystal Palace is tempting, but their propensity to share points amongst their attackers makes backing any individual a little less appealing.

Ollie Watkins away at Everton is picking up some suitors, but as previously discussed in this newsletter, Everton are good at defending, and Watkins has only scored one goal in his last six matches.

Captaining Ivan Toney is the most romantic option. The Brentford man faces an out-of-form Nottingham Forest (albeit perhaps invigorated under new management), and his “determination to pay Brentford back”, as reported by Sky Sports today, would make a hat-trick all quite poetic.

For what it’s worth, Cole Palmer in the posh-suburbs-of-London-derby is our pick, but rarely does the FPL landscape invite armband experimentation. This is one of those times.

The key stats.

Here are the key stats for Gameweek 21.

The Professor’s team.

The Professor wants me to acknowledge that he has been lucky during this break not to pick up any injuries to his team.

Current rank: 497k.

Current plans: he’s waiting until tomorrow’s press conferences, but probably Son and Salah out for Richarlison and Saka. He has two free transfers which he has been telegraphing for a while now.

Captain: Bukayo Saka (for now)

Here’s what his team would look like if he makes those moves, courtesy of Fantasy Football Hub’s MyTeam.

Fancy trying MyTeam? Fantasy Football Hub are running a 30-day free trial, with 30% off after that. It’s a beast. Try it here.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• Ivan Toney scored a hat-trick in a behind-closed-doors friendly against Southampton’s U23s at the weekend. He’s likely to return this gameweek.

• Pedro Neto is back. He played 10 minutes in Gameweek 20 and just over 30 mins in the FA Cup (and nabbed an assist).

• Gameweek 21 is ten days long. Ten. Days.

• There’s plenty of murmurings about upcoming blank and double gameweeks. None are confirmed and it’s unlikely any will take place in the next 3-4 gameweeks, so we’ll update you when we have something concrete.

I think this is the longest newsletter we’ve published this season and I haven’t even mentioned Eric Dier going to Bayern Munich.

Still, it feels rather fitting given that Gameweek 21 is the most elongated gameweek of a generation.

Remember to give Morning Brew a look if you haven’t already. It’s good stuff.

Right - Gameweek 22 doesn’t start until Tuesday 30th January. We’ll likely be back in the interim with some updates, but until then, stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.