🚨 GW14: The FPL cheat sheet 🤫

⏰ Gameweek 14’s deadline is Tuesday, 2nd December, 18:00 GMT ⏰

🤕 Glasner on Ismaïla Sarr: “I think he will miss a few games. Maybe we won’t see him again before AFCON”.

🤦 Arteta on William Saliba: “He was uncomfortable. I don’t think it’s something major, but enough not to be involved”.

🟥 Marcos Senesi is suspended in Gameweek 14 due to five yellows.

🧤 Nick Pope has a groin injury and will have a scan in a few days to determine the severity.

👀 Keep reading for the return of Cystic Greg.

Alright?

Us again. What, you thought you could relax?

It doesn’t matter how busy you are, Premier League fixtures are only postponed for three reasons: weather, pandemics, and the death of a British monarch.

So, unless we’ve missed something big since the full-time whistle blew at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, it’s time to get your arse in gear for Gameweek 14.

Here’s how to ensure you don’t stall.

The start of December is arguably the best time to upgrade to LazyFPL Premium.

1) There are seven gameweeks in December. 18.5% of the season happens in the next 30 days. This is when you want to be at your best, and it’s the perfect time to give LazyFPL Premium a try.

2) There’s a lot going on. AFCON free transfers, fixture congestion and chips that still need to be played.

3) It’s Christmas season. If you can’t treat yourself now, when can you?

Get two extra emails per week from the Professor, access to our Key Updates and Manager chat WhatsApp groups, entry to an exclusive £3k mini-league and ad-free LazyFPL.

A tub of Quality Street is £9.99 these days. Upgrade today for half of that 👇

Lazy summary: Keep Antoine Semenyo, captain Erling Haaland, don’t rush on Igor Thiago, keep faith in Arsenal’s defence and Marcos Senesi.

It’s weeks like this that we like to wheel Cystic Greg out from his semi-retirement. If you haven’t met him before, he’s our resident soothsayer - the only one we could afford. He likes cheap cider, the electronic music group Underworld and his pair of crystal balls.

David Dimbleby hosts, obviously.

Q1: Should managers get rid of Antoine Semenyo?

Greg: Not yet. Semenyo has been crapper than that bloke who allegedly invented the toilet, but 0.6 expected goal involvements in Gameweek 13 showed promise. According to my crystal balls, he has Everton at home next. Don’t get rid of him before that.

Q2: With 8 points in his last three, should Erling Haaland still be a lock for captain?

Greg: Yes. Haaland’s xG last gameweek (0.13) was the lowest he’s racked up all season, but that aside, his stats have still been good. There aren’t any dependable captaincy alternatives that promise Haaland’s upside.

Q3: Is Igor Thiago essential?

Greg: Nobody is essential apart from me. Thiago has been good this season, but five of his 11 goals have been penalties (he’s also missed one). Either Brentford have figured out how to optimise for penalties, or their penalty rate will slow down. Either way, he has Arsenal away next, so there’s no need to rush him in.

Q4: Should managers move away from Arsenal defenders whilst Gabriel is out?

Greg: As far as the xStats go, Arsenal have only conceded 0.86 expected goals in the two gameweeks since Gabriel’s injury. 0.79 of those came against Chelsea. In other words, they’ve been a bit unlucky to have conceded in both of those games. Brentford (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H) and Everton (A) are great fixtures for a defender. Keep them.

Q5: Is it time to get rid of Marcos Senesi?

The argument against keeping Senesi isn’t his one-match suspension; it’s the fixtures he has when he returns. Chelsea (H), Man United (A), Burnley (H), Brentford (A), Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H) and Spurs (H) aren’t great for a defender.

But he gets reliable minutes and is more likely to get DEFCON points against attacking sides. At his price point, you probably have bigger fires to put out, but if you don’t have a good bench option to replace him this week, getting rid of him won’t ruin your season.

Lazy summary: Cody Gakpo for stats, Elliot Anderson for affordability, Phil Foden if you’re sticking to the template, Eberechi Eze for pure vibes.

Three of the five most transferred-out players this week are mid-priced midfielders (Moisés Caicedo, Ismaïla Sarr and Antoine Semenyo). Here’s a very brief guide to the best replacements.

Most popular - Phil Foden (£8.1m)

Foden’s two attacking returns in Gameweek 13 equalled his total tally of attacking returns (1 goal, 1 assist) in Gameweeks 1-12. His underlying stats for the season aren’t that special, but they’ve been strong over the last six gameweeks. Only Cody Gakpo has a higher expected goal involvement in that time.

Like nearly all Man City players, he’s only a reliable starter until he isn’t.

Lazy rating: 7 trollies 🛒🛒🛒🛒🛒🛒🛒

The vibes pick - Eberechi Eze (£7.8m)

We discussed Eze last week after his hat-trick, and advised caution. That was pretty easy given Arsenal were visiting Chelsea, but the same advice applies now. Eze is clearly an excellent player, but his FPL returns need to be more consistent before we invest £7.8m.

Lazy rating: 5 lipsticks 💄💄💄💄💄

The stats monster - Cody Gakpo (7.5m)

For all of Liverpool’s woes, no other midfielder has a higher expected goal involvement (4.0) than Gakpo over the last six gameweeks. As with any Liverpool attacker, his minutes are a risk, but Gakpo seems to have done enough to solidify his place in Slot’s preferred 11 for the meantime.

Sunderland, Leeds, Brighton, Spurs and Wolves await - not a bad run at all.

Lazy rating: 8 beavers 🦫🦫🦫🦫🦫🦫🦫🦫

The cheap differential - Elliot Anderson (£5.3m)

Unlike a lot of differentials, Anderson (3.8% owned) offers steady reliability. In a month where your bench will almost certainly be needed, an affordable midfielder that delivers regular defensive contributions (he’s only missed out on points in five gameweeks, and always hit double-figures) is a useful asset.

But in his last three games, Anderson has also added attacking returns. A goal and an assist, and two bonus points in Gameweek 13 despite a blank, means he’s averaging six points per game since Sean Dyche took over.

Lazy rating: 7 US plugs 🔌🔌🔌🔌🔌🔌🔌

Lazy summary: There won’t be many chips activated this Gameweek.

Gameweek 14 isn’t forecasted to be a big week for chips. Those holding their Triple Captain will be eyeing Erling Haaland’s Gameweek 17 home fixture against West Ham, and most squads won’t need a Free Hit to look half decent this week.

It’s also a midweek gameweek, which means rotation is more likely than usual. That always makes a chip higher risk, particularly for something like a Bench Boost.

Lazy summary: It’s Erling Haaland.

The Norse God is going through a fallow period for his lofty standards, but Fulham (A) is as good a fixture as any to grab his 100th Premier League goal.

Bryan Mbeumo or Bruno Fernandes (home vs West Ham) and Bukayo Saka (home vs Brentford) provide some temptation, but the risk of not going for Haaland - whose stats remain very good - is too significant at the moment.

Despite an excruciating Triple Captaincy fail, the Professor’s decision to keep the faith in Virgil van Dijk and Bruno Fernandes paid off. He managed a small green arrow last week, which takes him to 641k overall.

This week, Ismaïla Sarr and Marcos Senesi are causing him a headache.

Here’s his team as things stand:

In the Prof’s own words, “Senesi and Sarr have to go”.

But, partly due to the quick turnaround this gameweek and partly due to the lack of obvious replacement options, he’s still unsure who he’s bringing in.

As you already know, LazyFPL Premium members will find out once he’s made his transfers.

Have we mentioned LazyFPL Premium yet? Don’t think we have.

Anyway, it’s not just the Professor: we have five FPL boffins answering questions, revealing their plans and hanging out in the LazyFPL Premium WhatsApp community. Two of them are in the top 200 FPL managers of all time.

As we said earlier, December is the best month to test whether it’s for you.

Maximise your chances of winning your mini-leagues and upgrade today:

1) Mohamed Salah was dropped in Gameweek 13 and remained on the bench.

2) Morgan Gibbs White (knock) and Murillo (illness) are expected to be available for Gameweek 14.

3) Matheus Cunha also expected to be back for Man United’s Gameweek 14 fixture.

4) Listen, it’s only been 24 hours since the end of Gameweek 13. What else do you want?

If you thought you were done with Lazy for the week, think again. We’ll be back in your inbox on Friday morning (GMT) ahead of Gameweek 15.

Stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.