FPL: The best budget defenders 🛡️

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Of all the positions - Forwards, Midfielders, Defenders, Goalkeepers and Missionary - it’s in defence that we tend to find the best budget options.

This has been true for as long as we can remember, and it looks set to be emphatically true this season, given how many £4.0m defensive options there are to choose from.

In this bonus Lazy email, we’ll look at the best £4.0m and £4.5m defenders with the same level of scrutiny as your Nan looking through your hair in search of nits. The end result will be an affordable foundation upon which you can layer more expensive, luxury players. You know, the ones that, with a bit of luck, might actually score some FPL points.

Without further ado.

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Lazy summary: DefCon points are more reliable than clean sheets and attacking returns.

Before we get stuck into specific players, it’s worth discussing the rationale that underpins almost every pick in this newsletter: DefCon has changed the way we ought to view budget defenders.

Back in the day, the ideal £4.0m defender was the fringe full-back who had somehow made it into a Premier League first team, usually due to the long-term injury of the pricier first choice.

These were simpler times, ruled by what felt like an unshakeable conviction: The best defenders in FPL are those who can keep a clean sheet and occasionally get an attacking return.

But then DefCon came along, and now the narrative has changed. Whilst attacking returns and clean sheets from defenders - particularly cheap ones - are rare and hard to predict, DefCon provides a more reliable source of points.

Lazy summary: Thomas, Hughes and Egan.

In our last newsletter, we discussed the viability of the two most popular £4.0m defenders by % ownership: Ipswich’s Issa Diop and Coventry’s Milan van Ewijk.

Whilst both will likely start for their respective clubs, their high ownership makes them vulnerable to price drops, as a player’s price is driven by the volume of managers buying or selling them. Higher ownership = more managers who might sell, and fewer who might buy.

Van Ewijk is favoured for his potential attacking returns, too, which feels like an echo from the past. What we’re looking for here:

For £4.0m defenders, we’re not as concerned about the potential for attacking returns and clean sheets.

There are three we like that fit this description.

1) Bobby Thomas - Coventry - 6.5% owned.

Coventry’s centre-back is surprisingly overlooked. We can only assume it’s because, unlike his colleague, he doesn’t have a “van” in his name.

But whilst Bobby van Thomas doesn’t sound like an exciting defender, he’s a much better budget option than van Ewijk in our view.

Firstly, he averaged 8.56 defensive contributions per game last season - a stat that will surely rise in the Premier League when he has more to do. Remarkably, he also registered seven attacking returns (three assists and four goals) in 33 Championship games last season, which is mostly irrelevant for this season, but still nice to know.

2) Charlie Hughes - Hull City - 2.2% owned.

Having already stressed the importance of reliable DefCon points, it’d be remiss of us not to include Hull’s Hughes. He’s won Hull’s Young Player of the Year award in both of the last two seasons, and is expected to start in the Premier League.

You won’t get attacking returns here, but do expect DefCon points. Hughes averaged a frankly intimidating 11.7 defensive contributions per game last season - the highest of any promoted defender.

3) John Egan - Hull City - 0.8% owned.

Egan already has a 133-point season under his belt, having previously played for Sheffield United alongside FPL icon and heartthrob, John Lundstram.

Now a centre-back with Hull, he’s expected to pick up where he left off in the Championship as one of the first-choice defenders in that side.

Much like Hughes, Egan is here for the DefCon potential. With an average of over 10 defensive contributions per 90 last season, he’s definitely got a reliable 3-pointer written all over him.

Lazy summary: Kayode, Ajer, Shaw and Kadıoğlu.

In the £4.5m bracket, we can start to look at attacking returns and clean sheet potential with a little more optimism. That’s because some of the Premier League’s top teams have £4.5m options hidden amongst them. Clean sheets should be easier to predict, and attacking returns more likely to be picked up.

Here’s who we like:

Michael Kayode - Brentford - 4.7% owned.

Brentford’s first-choice right-back contributed to 10 clean sheets last season. His three attacking returns are hardly emphatic, but he’s a nailed, progressive defender playing for a Brentford side that rarely underperforms.

Brentford have Spurs (H), Leeds (A), Sunderland (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H) to start the season. Not bad, not great.

Kristoffer Ajer - Brentford - 0.5% owned.

With the recent news that Sepp van den Berg is due to be out for 2-3 months, the door is open for Ajer, who, in his 20 starts for Brentford last season, averaged 9.6 defensive contributions per game. He even notched two assists.

Luke Shaw - Man United - 23.3% owned.

Shaw comes with a health warning: he’s over 20% owned, making him more vulnerable to price drops. But he’s also in most of our pundit drafts*, so we should explain why.

Shaw’s biggest selling point is his early fixtures. He has Hull (A), Ipswich (H) and Everton (A) in his first three, all of which have clean sheet potential. This, combined with reliability of minutes and the potential for attacking returns, means he’s a nice enabler playing for a decent enough side.

*(Incidentally, The Professor prefers Harry Maguire for an additional £0.5m, for reasons he explains in his latest newsletter).

Ferdi Kadıoğlu - Brighton - 3.2% owned.

Reliable on the pitch but impossible to type out on our keyboard, Brighton’s Kadıoğlu is another £4.5m full-back sure to get minutes.

Brighton’s fixtures are mixed (Aston Villa, Chelsea, Leeds, Coventry and Arsenal) and Kadıoğlu only had three attacking contributions last season, but Brighton are a decent enough side to pick up clean sheets here and there. A good option off the bench.

On the radar:

There are a few £4.5m defenders who are interesting, but not for Gameweek 1.

It’s hard to overstate how important the budget defender bracket is in FPL. Two recent rule changes have made them even more important:

1) DefCon, which has already been discussed in this newsletter.

2) The additional Bench Boost, which places even greater emphasis on the strength of our whole squad, rather than just our starting XI.

I want to stress that this isn’t like other positions. There might be some value in a cheap midfielder or forward, but the £4.5m options offer precious little by way of reliability. I don’t recall a season in which so little has been said about them.

It’s all about the budget defenders. They’re your best bet of turning budget into points, so if you have to go cheap somewhere, it surely has to be at the back.

As the advice here already recommends, I’m prioritising DefCon potential over attacking or clean sheet potential in my latest Gameweek 1 draft:

🧑‍🏫 The Professor talks through the logic behind his current Gameweek 1 team in the latest Premium newsletter.

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Okay, we’ll be back early next week. In the meantime, try to enjoy the weekend. Apparently there’s some cricket on, so that’s something.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.