Fixture Swings To Target From FPL Gameweek 10

It’s been nine gameweeks of the Premier League, meaning we finally have enough data to draw some inferences from.

So, taking this newfound wealth of information, let’s take a look at which teams have the best fixtures — and who their best assets are — for some punts up until we get the AFCON transfer boost, shall we?

Next 6: nfo, tot, EVE, cry, WHU, wol

From being the easy fixture to having the easiest fixtures in the league, not too bad a turnaround, eh?

United have had a shockingly good start to the season, and now that they’ve won three in a row, maybe that one fan can finally get a haircut. An ode to Ten Hag’s shiny head, if you will.

Anyway, United are second in the league based on xG, and while their xGA isn’t exactly ripping up trees, they’ve definitely looked a LOT more stable ever since Senne Lammens stepped in between the sticks.

While I don’t think any United defenders are worth considering, they have three excellent midfield options to pick from: Bruno, Mbeumo, and Cunha. I think Bruno is one of the best FPL options, full stop, simply because of how many avenues to points he has: penalties, set pieces, open-play threat, DEFCON potential.

Cunha, on the other hand, shoots frequently, and at some point, at least one shot’s bound to go in, while Mbeumo’s npxGI/90 is at a career high. Of course, he does head off to AFCON, which is something to keep an eye on.

Top three assets: Bruno, Cunha, Mbeumo

Next 6: BRE, BHA, wol, MUN, bur, ful

After going 19 games unbeaten and being all too humble about it on Twitter (if you know, you know), Crystal Palace have gone their next four matches without a win.
Crystal Dungeon?

Jokes aside, Palace are a really, really good side. They’re top of the league for xG and in the top half for xGA, and honestly, they look like contenders for European qualification.

And Glasner’s refusal to rotate his side helps too, meaning you’re not left frantically checking to see if one of your players has been Pepped (benched).

Jean-Philippe Mateta is one of the best FWD options in the game. While his long-term xMins could be up in the air as Nketiah continues to nag, he should still be nailed on, a penalty-taking, 0.74 npxG+xAG/90 kinda guy.

Ismaïla Sarr’s putting up an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.56, and his minutes look really, really good. At that price range (£6.5m), I think he’s one of the best MID options around.

In defence, there’s one of two ways you can go — nay, should go — because Palace’s back line is pretty solid. On one hand, you have Muñoz’s attacking threat (which is slightly insane, considering he effectively plays as a winger), while with Lacroix (11.11 DEFCONs/90) and Richards (10.78), you get some genuine DEFCON potential.

Top three assets: Mateta, Sarr, Munoz

Next 6: bur, sun, TOT, che, BRE, avl

After Liverpool’s and City’s losses this weekend, Arsenal head into Gameweek 10 as the outright favourites to win the Premier League. So I look forward to seeing how they bottle this one.

In all seriousness, this is a team that’s 5th for xG and 1st (by miiiiles) for xGA. I’d go as far as to say this Arsenal defence is the best we’ve seen since Mourinho’s Chelsea, or that of Chelsea fans when they try to defend their “rebuild.”

I think Gabriel is one of the best assets in the game. He’s a nailed-on clean sheet magnet with a head big enough to grab some goals from corners (and Rice’s set-pieces are extraordinary), all while maintaining DEFCON threat (9.33/90). We’re honestly not far away from him being a captaincy option some weeks.

I like Saka as an option too. Sure, Madueke getting closer to full fitness isn’t ideal for his xMins, but he’s still a nailed-on, talismanic, penalty-taking player for one of the league’s best attacks. Granted, his npxG+xAG/90 has halved compared to last season, but expecting some uptick is pretty reasonable.

And those next two fixtures? My, my.

Beyond that, I still maintain that Gyökeres is a good pick. With Havertz inching closer to fitness, I wouldn’t label him a buy, though, more of a hold.

Timber is, of course, a good option too.

Top three assets: Gabriel, Saka, Timber

Next 6: LEE, cry, BRE, nfo, AVL, WHU

Nothing to Brighton (brighten) up your day like searching for your player on Brighton’s teamsheet only to realise that Hürzeler’s politely refused to tell the truth about their health and they’ve secretly been carrying an injury for two months.

But hey, at least they put Hürzeler on the team sheet graphic, am I right?

Brighton’s wingers are left isolated for loooong phases of the game, meaning they’re massive threats on the counter. Take Brighton’s loss vs. United, for example, Minteh was the main outlet.

And I also think he’s Brighton’s best FPL option. He’s nailed, does decently for DEFCON, and has put up a steady npxG+xAG/90 of 0.45. Plus, Gambia haven’t qualified for AFCON, so he can be a set-and-forget cheap MID in your side.

Beyond that, I think the pickings are slim. Georginio’s a good option, but his xMins (thanks to early subs) are slightly suspect. Welbeck should be good for the next couple (and he’s on penalties), but his xStarts may fall off a cliff after the next international break. Mitoma’s an amazing option but… he’s mysteriously fallen off the face of the earth with an injury. Great.

Van Hecke’s not the worst DEF option, although Brighton’s defence has been pretty woeful. Nevertheless, he does well on the BPS system and averages 9.56 DEFCONs/90.

Top three assets: Minteh, Georginio, Van Hecke

Next 6: sun, FUL, mun, NEW, bou, NFO

Everton have been about a mid-table attack and bottom-half defence this season, so they’re somehow worse at football than they are at basic maths and points deductions. Nice one.

While I think Everton’s fixtures are alright, they’re nowhere near the best on this list. Even still, options like Ndiaye (£6.5m) look pretty valuable. He’s nailed for about 80 minutes each week, has decent underlying data, and is Everton’s first-choice penalty taker, essentially a less expensive (and better) alternative to Grealish.

Tarkowski (£5.5m) and Keane (£4.5m) are about the only other two Everton assets I’d consider. Both are pretty reliable for DEFCONs, averaging 11 and 9.64 per 90, respectively, while Keane has been Everton’s primary target from set pieces, meaning his xG looks solid.

I think the pair are a steady source of four-pointers, and with these fixtures, the odd clean sheet is always possible.

Top three assets: Ndiaye, Keane, Tarkowski