⚽️ DGW27 - your 4-min cheat sheet 📈

Summary for the lazy

⏰ Double Gameweek 27's deadline is 11:00 GMT, Saturday 11th March

😍 Brighton, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Brentford will double

👀 Trossard and Nketiah missing from training. Jesus with the group

❄️ The weather could be a factor this weekend

Stay to learn who, out of the many tempting options, 

'Sup,

Thankfully the merits of your fantasy decisions aren't decided by one gameweek's worth of results alone, otherwise the Gameweek 26 Wildcard would've been tough for many of you.

Despite what you may have heard, the Wildcard is a medium-to-long term investment, not a get-rich-quick scheme. If you played yours last week and haven't yet seen a return, don't panic. You're still well set-up for the next few gameweeks. 

Onwards to Double Gameweek 27, which promises to be spicier than those ring-sting-inducing curries that have three chilli symbols next to them in your local Indian.

Grab a naan, some tissues and a pint of milk. Let's tuck in.

(In this email we're trying a new thing: at the bottom of each section we're including one line that summarises it, for those of you in a rush. At the end of this email we'll ask you whether it was useful - please answer that poll if you have a moment!)

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Depending on where you are in the world, joining LazyFPL Premium costs somewhere between a cup of coffee and a pint of lager a month.

If you can't afford that, no problem at all. It's tough at the moment, and this pre-deadline email will always remain free.

But if you've got a bit of cash to spare, Premium gets you:

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I did a quick poll this morning on the WhatsApp group and these were the results:

What's the weather doing?

Disappointed that the fixture confusion has been mostly resolved, the FPL Gods have now chosen to wage an elemental war on our best-made plans. 

Forget fixture disruption: weather disruption is the hot (or rather sub-zero) new pain in the arse on the block.

Let's check in with our LazyFPL weather correspondent...

...oh wait, we don't have one.

In lieu of a LazyFPL weather correspondent, we'll turn to FPL managers on Twitter who, if the confidence of their predictions is anything to go by, are also meteorologists in their spare time.

When Always Cheating FPL asked about the likelihood of weather-based postponements, FPL Hornet replied with:

Phew. If FPL Hornet says there's a small chance, it must be true.

But concerningly, the always-dependable FPL_Glasto chimed in too:

For our readers who live outside of the UK (lucky bastards), 1cm of snow is utterly catastrophic. It's certainly enough to grind the country to complete stand-still.

Thankfully, Glasto is talking about Sheffield who, last time I checked, aren't in the Premier League anymore.

Whilst he rightly points out that Leeds - who seem to be most under threat - are on "Amber alert", this is what BBC Weather is predicting for Leeds on Saturday:

Enough to restock your de-icer, but probably not enough to call off a football match.

All of this means that, much like the fixture disruption, the weather disruption rumours may well end up being a little anticlimactic.

Still, if you're captaining a player that plays for, or against, a team based in the north of England, make sure you have a good, south-dwelling vice-captain. Here's a key to help:

For the lazy: it's probably going to be fine, but set a good vice-captain just incase.

Arsenal's front-three

Our lawyers have said that if we don't include a Jesus resurrection joke in this section, we'll be prohibited from sending any more emails. We don't make the rules, folks.

The facts

It's all happening in Arsenal's front-three. Eddie Nketiah and Leandro Trossard were conspicuous in their absence in Arsenal's 2-2 tie with Sporting Lisbon on Thursday.

This followed Wednesday's news from Arsenal correspondent Charles Watts that the pair, along with Kieran Tierney, were absent from training.

At around the same time, it was revealed that Jesus had returned to training, despite a body of literature predicting that he would, in fact, return on Easter Sunday.Here's a freeze-frame of some video footage that shows him actually kicking a ball. It's not quite a massive boulder, but it's a start.

To compound all of this, reports have emerged that Odegaard could be ill. He was also absent on Thursday night. According to my Nan, he's probably caught that cold that's been going around.

The analysis

Jesus was not in the squad that faced Sporting, but the fact he's nearing a return means that anyone still holding on to Nketiah probably needs to cut their losses and get rid. 

Lest we forget that once Jesus was the most-owned player in the history of this game. If he slots back in to that Arsenal side, he's one to keep an eye on.

The length of time - if any - that Trossard and Nketiah are out for remains to be seen, but regardless, it'll do no harm to Martinelli's ever-rising stock. The in-form midfielder could well start upfront for Arsenal in the coming weeks, rubbing yet more salt in the wounds of the many managers who got rid right before his monstrous Double Gameweek 25. 

Will we ever learn?

For the lazy: Jesus back in training, Nketiah and Trossard not in training, Odegaard could be ill. Martinelli likely to be the main beneficiary.

The best Brighton players

A lot of you will already be settled on your Brighton players. If that's you, don't worry: I'm confident you definitely own the best trio. Feel free to skip this section.

Do you want Brighton attackers or defenders?

Since the World Cup, Brighton have excelled both defensively and offensively. Their xGC (expected goals conceded) is the third-lowest at 9.6, only marginally bested by Man City (9.2) and Newcastle (8.9).

Meanwhile, their xG (expected goals) is exactly 20, which is fifth-best in the league and a massive 4.8xG ahead of Newcastle in sixth. Man City, Liverpool, Man United and Arsenal sit above them.

In that same period, March is the top points scorer on 64. Mitoma is close behind him on 61, with Estupinan (46) and Veltman (35) third and fourth.

This points-weighting towards the midfielders means that, for me, two midfielders and one defender/goalkeeper seems like an optimal three. The majority of Brighton's attacking output comes from their midfield, with Ferguson and co contributing too infrequently to get excited over.

Who are the best Brighton midfielders?

The problem with assessing the merits of Brighton's midfielders is that everything changed after Mac Allister moved to a #10 role. Friend of the newsletter BigManBakar sums it up nicely:

And look at the comparison to March and Mitoma since his move:

It's a small sample size but, statistically, Mac Allister is the best performing Brighton midfielder assuming he remains in that #10 role. He might not. He's also on penalties. 

Meanwhile, March has excellent statistical output and Mitoma, though statistically the weakest, just looks like a talented enough player to compensate for a lack of high quality chances.

**BREAKING: in the last few hours, De Zerbi has confirmed that March has been carrying a niggle for the last few weeks. He's available for tomorrow, but in @BenDinnery's words, it's a "consideration" given they have another fixture on Wednesday.**

Given all of this, we'd pick Mitoma and Mac Allister over March. Y'know, if we had to. We don't, do we?

Who is the best Brighton defender?

Jason Steele's introduction to the side looks set to be a permanent fixture (De Zerbi confirmed it was because he thinks Steele is better than Sanchez), but Estupinan is the only Brighton defender who has significant attacking upside.

Since Gameweek 17, he's joint-top amongst defenders for goal involvements (3).

Don't get me wrong: Steele is a steal at £3.9m, and a cheap route into an impressive Brighton defence, but for clean sheet points with the added potential of some attacking gainz, it has to be the nailed-since-Gameweek 14 Pervis.

For the lazy: Mac Allister, Mitoma and Estupinan are our Brighton picks.

If you're Wildcarding this week

You want a pretty similar team to the team you would've Wildcarded in last week.

But:

• don't include Brighton's Robert Sanchez (maybe put Raya or Steele there instead)

• consider a Chelsea defender (they've got a nice little run of fixtures inc. a double in 29)

• grab a couple of Newcastle defenders (ditto for Chelsea)

Honestly, there isn't much in it, and that's because those Wildcarding in Gameweek 26 weren't really targeting Gameweek 26 at all: they were targeting Double Gameweek 27 and beyond.

The best captain for Double Gameweek 27

Another tough one. Here's why:

• Several good players have two fixtures

• Several excellent players have only one fixture

Haaland (cpa), Salah (bou), Rashford (SOU) or Kane (NFO) would all make for excellent captains.

But as regular readers will know, we'll always captain a doubler due to one, criminally overlooked metric: fun.

Which doubling player should you pick?

It's a Brighton player vs a Brentford player, isn't it.

A few hipsters will captain Zaha, and Ward-Prowse could get a nod or two, but come on: unless you own a cassette rewinder, you're looking at one of Toney (eve, sou), Mitoma, Mac Allister or March (all lee, CRY).

Toney will almost certainly be the most popular captain amongst active managers, which makes him the best pick if you're looking to protect your rank.

Mitoma will likely be second, with Mac Allister arriving late into the box in third - these are the guys to consider if you need to make up ground.

Toney's popularity is less about his fixtures (Brighton probably edge it) and more about the fact that he's a talisman for his side. Indeed, he's responsible for 51% of Brentford's goals. He's also on penalties.

Brighton's midfield trio, meanwhile, spread their goal involvement almost equally (Mitoma with 29%, March with 26% and Mac Allister with 19%). It makes giving one of them the armband much trickier.

Because he's on penalties, has decent enough fixtures, is nailed to start and the bookies' favourite to return, we're giving Toney the armband.

For the lazy: Toney.

The key stats

Here are the need-to-know numbers ahead of Double Gameweek 27. Brighton and Brentford players are, unsurprisingly, the most popular picks.

Also, look at that Brighton xGC.

The Professor's Team

Having Wildcarded last week, the Prof is rolling a transfer. Mitoma gets the armband.

Current rank: 78k.

He's using the BetterFPL chrome extension here, which is why he's able to view so much additional info. Try it for free for a month using the code [FPLTIPS].

Other tidbits

• Reece James was not pictured in training photos. It could be nothing.

• Some managers (around 76,000) have gotten rid of Erling Haaland.

• If you'd picked this team in Gameweek 1 and left it alone, you'd be 118th in the world.

FPL is a cruel, cruel mistress. (courtesy of FPLFocal)

Lazy conclusions

🌨 The weather probably won't cause any issues, but be smart and pick a good vice.

🔴 Nketiah, Trossard and Odegaard are all doubts for the weekend. Keep an eye on the press conferences.

🕊 If you're yet to invest in Brighton, consider Mitoma, Mac Allister and Estupinan.

🧢 Toney is probably the best captain for most, but it's tight.

Okay. We're out. Back next Thursday evening.

Bye.The FPLTips team.