Buy or Avoid: FPL Gameweek 11

Gameweeks are starting to settle, but FPL managers definitely aren’t. Every week throws up a new “must-buy” midfielder who turns into a 2-pointer by Sunday, while the boring DEFCON grinders just keep quietly collecting returns.

So this week, instead of chasing random hauls from budget midfielders who’ll blank next game, we’re looking at the steady hands, the DEFCON merchants quietly farming points in the background. From Moises’ goalscoring form to Timber’s clean sheet streak, here’s who’s actually worth your attention (and who isn’t).

Next 4: WOL, bur, ARS, lee
Form: 10, 2, 1, 10

Moses parted the Red Sea, Moises parts the football pitch with red cards.

In isolation, Caicedo’s a perfectly fine pick. He’s nailed on with decent fixtures, playing for a Chelsea side ranked fourth in the league for xG. Plus, he’s averaging 13.26 DEFCONs/90, clearing the +2 threshold with relative ease.

But his attacking data is pretty woeful. Defenders even out-xG him. So even though you get a steady stream of four-pointers, £6.0m is a pretty steep price for such limited upside. For that value, there are plenty of better options elsewhere, like the next person on this list.

Alternatives: Szoboszlai, Minteh, Sarr

Next 4: ARS, ful, BOU, liv
Form: 10, 2, 5, 3

For a man named after some building material, Granit’s done alright for himself, hasn’t he? While his attacking data is expectedly average, Xhaka’s racking up the DEFCONs, averaging 12 per 90 (bang on the threshold), meaning he effectively starts at 4 points.

Plus, Xhaka’s more of an enabler, costing only £5.1m. But that’s where the good news ends. Even though Sunderland have outperformed expectations, their next few fixtures are utterly awful, and it’s hard to see a week where you’d happily—or willingly—start Xhaka.

So, while he’s good for the money, Xhaka is nowhere near a must-buy for now.

Alternatives: Dewsbury-Hall, Elliot Anderson

Next 4: LIV, new, LEE, ful
Form: 10, 1, 1, 0

Cherki’s an absolutely incredible footballer, but his xMins are questionable and his fixtures aren’t great, making him an easy avoid. How’s that for definitive, eh?

I think Cherki may well be a fantastic option down the line, but we have plenty of time before that happens. His underlying data is shaping up rather nicely, though, so he’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

Alternatives: Enzo, Szoboszlai, Minteh

Next 4: BHA, wol, MUN, bur
Form: 10, 4, 4, 3

I almost wrote down Liverpool’s fixtures instead, thinking Guehi had made his move, before realising he plays for a team that actually wins matches!

Palace are a pretty solid defense overall, ranked sixth for xGA, and honestly look wonderful under Glasner. They also face two of the league’s worst attacks in their next four, which bodes pretty well for xCS.

On the flip side, Guehi’s averaging only 8.5 DEFCONs/90, and that’s not ideal when Palace have cheaper, more DEFCON-rich options in Lacroix and Richards. That said, Guehi’s attacking data has been really, really good, unnaturally good, even. I don’t think an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.20 is sustainable, though, and at that point, I’d just go with Lacroix or Richards.

Alternatives: Senesi, Andersen, Lacroix

Next 4: sun, TOT, che, BRE
Form: 6, 6, 6, 11

It’s goin’ down, I’m yellin’, Timberrrrrrrrrrr.

Arsenal are the best defence in the league, yada yada yada, we know that. But is Timber really who you want to spend your third Arsenal spot on?

Most people own Raya and Gabriel, so let’s assume you’ve got just one free slot. Timber’s biggest plus is, of course, clean sheets, but his attacking data has been nothing short of ridiculous this season, with an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.29. There is a trade-off here, though, in the sense that he’s not DEFCONing.

Saliba has the clean sheets, but again, no DEFCON. Calafiori has attacking threat but dodgy xMins. Rice gets free assists from set pieces but offers minimal open-play threat and very random DEFCONs.

So that leaves us with Bukayo Saka. His xMins are good, he’s on penalties, and while his attacking data isn’t great, I do expect an uptick.

So while I think Saka is the better pick, Timber’s a wonderful option too, and for me, he’s a buy.