Buy or Avoid: FPL Gameweek 10

While playing FPL, we often overestimate the value of our actions, making transfers when we really don’t have to. So who’s actually worth a transfer, and who isn’t? Could buying one player really break your entire season? Let’s find out.

Next 4: LEE, cry, BRE, nfo
Form: 11, 1, 13, 6

Danny Welbeck has more appearances for Brighton than he does for Manchester United and Arsenal. How’s that for a fact?

Brighton’s upcoming fixture run is one of the best in the league, so that’s a massive plus for Welbeck. He also looks secure for starts and is their first-choice penalty taker.

That said, he isn’t getting any younger, and Brighton have a couple of good forward options on the bench who are slowly (but steadily) getting used to English football. What this means is that we’re not far from a future where Welbeck isn’t the first-choice CF, and we’re already at a point where we should worry about early subs.

That makes Welbeck an avoid for me (unless he’s a two-week punt).

Alternatives: Thiago, Strand-Larsen, Calvert-Lewin

Next 4: BRE, BHA, wol, MUN
Form: 2, 2, 17, 2

Blank, blank, hat-trick, blank. Fair enough, Mateta’s about as dependable as my cellular plan.

Mateta’s a nailed-on, penalty-taking forward who’s about to enter a really good fixture run, while running at an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.74. Plus, he’s being rested in Crystal Palace’s Carabao Cup fixture, which should bode well for his minutes in GW10.

Palace are top of the league for xG and have, in all honesty (and sadness), looked incredible. I think Mateta’s one of the best FWDs in FPL and an easy buy.

Alternatives: Haaland, Woltemade

Next 4: nfo, tot, EVE, cry
Form: 2, 6, 9, 15

United have made a competent signing for once. The end must be near.

I think Bryan Mbeumo is a fantastic footballer, and he’s certainly found his footing in Manchester, running at a career-high npxG+xAG/90 of 0.60.

Sure, he’s lost penalties, but his minutes look really good, and he already seems to be one of the focal points of United’s attack, which, to be fair, looks pretty good this year, with them sitting 2nd for xG over the season.

The one negative is that Mbeumo will be with Cameroon for AFCON, but since we get a transfer boost around then, I think he’s an excellent buy.

Alternatives: Bruno Fernandes, Cunha, Gordon

Next 4: bur, sun, TOT, che
Form: 9, 11, 3, 7

Rumour has it Declan Rice’s favourite board game is Battleship. That’s totally unrelated to the precision of his set-pieces, but anyway.

Declan Rice’s underlying data is pretty decent; he’s on set-pieces, nailed, does well on the BPS system, and basically always gets a clean sheet point. Buuuut his DEFCON data doesn’t look great, as he’s averaging less than 8 a game and has hit the threshold only twice so far.

Even still, he’s a great option. So why, then, am I going to call him an avoid?

Well, it’s simply because there are so many good FPL options from Arsenal that you wouldn’t want to block a triple-up. Gabriel, Timber, Raya, Saka, Gyökeres (if you’re a sicko) — the list goes on.

So while I think Rice is a good FPL option, the alternatives are far too good to warrant going there.

Alternatives: Sarr, Enzo, Minteh

Next 4: CHE, MUN, ars, FUL
Form: 2, 2, 0, 23

Oh Micky, you’re not so fine because you gave me a red arrow from a place I didn’t even think was possible. HOW do you go from 7 points in 4 games to 23 in one? Van de WHY?

While Spurs look pretty solid defensively (6th in the league for xGA), their fixtures aren’t great. Sure, van de Ven’s xG looks stupendous, but that’s being heavily skewed by this past week’s fixture.

Plus, he isn’t even averaging 6 DEFCONs/90, meaning those +2 points are merely a pipe dream.

All in all, van de Ven is a pretty easy avoid. I wouldn’t expect >6-pointers on a regular basis.

Alternatives: Gabriel, Muñoz, Lacroix