❌ BGW29: the best Free Hit team 👀

🚨 The stuff you should know 🚨

⏰ Blank Gameweek 29’s deadline is Saturday 16th March, 13:30 GMT.

👀 There are only four fixtures.

😕 Watkins off injured midweek. Emery says he “could be available” for Sunday.

🩼 De Bruyne out of Belgium squad due to a groin strain.

Keep reading for some reluctant differentials.

Alright?

Trigger warning: this is going to be a very Free Hit-centric newsletter. If you’re not on a Free Hit, one of two things is probably true:

1) you’ve spent a long time preparing for this gameweek and you already know what moves you want to make.

2) you’re doomed.

So it makes the most sense to offer guidance to those who, for better or worse, have saved their Free Hit for Blank Gameweek 29.

And in that spirit, let’s not circuit around the shrubbery any longer. Here’s The Professor’s current Free Hit team:

We’ll revisit this shortly.

Four matches. Eight mostly mediocre teams. What could possibly go wrong?

Blank Gameweek 29’s fixtures.

Two Free Hit tactics.

The Free Hit is an odd chip. Unlike the others, which offer a boost to mechanisms that are already well understood (like the captaincy, the bench or the number of free transfers at your disposal), mastering the Free Hit requires learning new, unfamiliar tactics.

Cue Sean Bean.

Tactic 1: avoid cannibalisation.

It’s highly unlikely you’ll score maximum points if your players are playing one another. In other words, if you’re picking a West Ham forward, it doesn’t make sense to also pick an Aston Villa defender. If one scores points, it’s likely because the other has not.

This might seem obvious, but it’s remarkable how many decent managers forget to look out for conflicts. Give your team a fondle and check for any signs.

Tactic 2: the DFS mindset

Not the furniture shop: I’m talking about Daily Fantasy Sports.

Daily fantasy is a format of fantasy football that allows managers to build a new team every gameweek, with prizes awarded on a week-by-week basis. It’s sort of like starting and finishing a new season every weekend.

For obvious reasons, the tactics are significantly different to the “season-long” format we know and love. The winners are invariably those who:

• have unconventional beliefs about the outcome of a game

• attack those beliefs with unwavering conviction

• end up being right about those beliefs

The predicament, of course, is that the losers have similar criteria, only they end up being wrong about their beliefs. Being right is, frustratingly, a necessity here.

A conventional belief is that Spurs will beat Fulham, which means most Free Hit drafts have Son Heung-min captained, with the likes of James Maddison and Pedro Porro in as supporting acts.

But what if this belief is wrong? The points-swing of ignoring Spurs players and tripling up on Fulham would be huge if, for example, Fulham were to win 2-0 instead.

So if you’re at the “go for broke” phase of the season, take a look at the fixtures and ask yourself: where are my unconventional beliefs, and how can I use my Free Hit to capitalise on them?

The Professor’s Team.

A longer section today to discuss some of the Prof’s picks. It’s worth stressing that it could all change: this is not set in Sharon.

Here it is again, courtesy of Fantasy Football Hub’s MyTeam*.

As per our earlier discussion about tactics, The Professor only has one attacker/defender conflict here: Morgan Gibbs-White and Alfie Doughty (who, btw, now has the second-most assists of any defender this season).

We’ll talk you through a couple of the Prof’s picks:

Ollie Watkins

The Professor, like so many of us, is waiting on news about Ollie Watkins after he was subbed off against Ajax on Thursday. Emery is keeping his cards close to his chest:

“We don't know exactly what the [issue] is. Maybe for Sunday he could be available.”

Thanks for nothing, Unai.

If Watkins is fit - and we get news of this before the deadline - he’ll remain in the Prof’s starting XI. If not, Chris Wood or Rodrigo Muniz will likely come in.

Morgan Gibbs-White

The Prof prefers Gibbs-White over Anthony Elanga because, rather inconveniently, Elanga was dropped in Double Gameweek 28.

Elanga has the better numbers, but is less assured of a start. And the Prof tends to steer clear of these sorts of players.

Ivan Toney

Look me in the eye and tell me you haven’t flirted with Yoane Wissa in your Free Hit team. You have, haven’t you? You dirty dog.

Everyone has, but most have still resolved to pick Ivan Toney, including the Professor.

Despite scoring in his last three games, Wissa is still a minutes risk. Toney hasn’t returned in his last four games, but he’s on penalties and it’s no secret how dangerous he can be.

The players the Professor didn’t pick

The Prof goes to some lengths to acknowledge those tempting picks he has currently left out. They include:

Mohammed Kudus

Serge Reguilon

Bryan Mbeumo (who might return this weekend)

For a full write-up that goes into far more depth, join LazyFPL premium and support the newsletter in style.

*(Btw, if you fancy trying MyTeam, Fantasy Football Hub are running a 7-day free trial, with 30% off after that. It’s a beast. Try it here and you’ll be helping us out too.)

Some Free Hit differentials.

Ugh, differentials.

Long-time readers of LazyFPL will know that we tend not to recommend differentials. Buying differentials in FPL is sort of like going all in with pocket 3’s at the poker table because you “have a hunch”. If you’re lucky you might win the occasional hand, but if you play like that all the time you’re not going win the whole game.

With that said, the season is nearly in its 30s which, as I learned from my nephew the other week, is “well old”. If there’s ever a time to start considering differentials, it’s probably around now.

The Free Hit is particularly ripe for a differential because we don’t have to keep the chumps we punt on.

Here are three differentials that not many people are talking about:

1) Destiny Udogie (Spurs defender):

Pedro Porro is the default Spurs defender pick this week, for reasons I’m still trying to work out.

Porro isn’t a bad pick by any means, but there’s nothing to suggest he’s significantly better than his young counterpart. In fact, you could make the case that in recent games he’s actually been worse:

2) Leon Bailey (Aston Villa midfielder):

I’m not sure whether people fully appreciate how good Leon Bailey is at the moment, particularly when compared to other Villa options.

Whilst a visit to the London Stadium could easily be mistaken for a challenging away fixture, two stats are worth nothing here:

• Aston Villa have the fifth-best expected goals away from home.

• West Ham have the eighth-worst expected goals conceded at home.

This, combined with the fact that Bailey is right up there for form (six attacking returns in his last seven) and underlying stats means that, for us, he’s one of the best midfielders for the blank.

3) Jhon Duran (Aston Villa forward and popular 80s pop band):

If Ollie Watkins is out this weekend, Jhon Duran makes for an interesting pick. The 20-year-old has only been fed morsels up until this point - 10 minutes here, 20 minutes there. Is that a bad thing? Perhaps. Or perhaps he’ll be Hungry Like the Wolf.

Despite being Invisible for much of the season, Duran scored midweek after coming on for Watkins. It’s A Matter of Feeling whether he can repeat that feat against West Ham but, if given the opportunity, he could well become a Notorious Blank Gameweek icon.

The best captain for Blank Gameweek 29.

It’s fairly straightforward. Son Heung-min is well and truly back; his 17-point haul away at Villa last gameweek a stark reminder of what he can do.

Fulham’s defence at home isn’t the worst, but Son feasted in the reverse fixture (14 points) and nobody would be shocked to see him do it again on Saturday evening.

The Spurs game is also the only Premier League game being broadcasted in the UK this weekend, so if you’re UK-based and want to actually watch your captain play, he’s the pick.

James Maddison or even Brennan Johnson make for intriguing differential captaincy picks, and a fit Ollie Watkins could also stir up the broth.

The key stats for Blank Gameweek 29.

In summary: the bookies don’t think anyone is particularly likely to score, but also don’t think any team is particularly likely to keep a clean sheet. Brilliant.

The Blank Gameweek summary.

As James Cooper, one of the great FPL managers of all time, explained in our premium WhatsApp group today, the core of most Free Hit teams will likely be similar:

“Anyone on a Free Hit should be looking at a Brentford defender; Porro (assuming Richarlison is out); Son, Maddison, Bowen; and Toney plus Watkins up top - pending a somewhat gory but probably superficial leg update.”

It’s the fringe players - the peripheral flotsam and jetsam - that will determine how successful your Free Hit ends up being. That’s where to stick your head above the proverbial parapet and gain an edge over the rest of the field.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• It was our second birthday this week. Thank you for all of your support, we appreciate you being here.

• Dominic Solanke’s 0 points in the Sheffield United game was the lowest score he’s ever registered…across 123 Premier League appearances.

• Carlton Morris triple captained Solanke last week…against his own team (shoutout to u/FPL_Focal for this catch).

Right, the dreaded international break is upon us, so we’ll be back in a few weeks unless enough happens in the mean time to justify a bonus newsletter. For all our sakes, let’s hope not.

Until then, stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.