The Professor Previews: Gameweek 18

Hello, reader.

It’s Boxing Day, the day where even if you don’t celebrate Christmas it is your duty to get on the couch and watch the football all day.

And while the powers that have taken away all but one fixture from us this Boxing Day (I’ll never forgive them for this), we still have an FPL deadline to work through.

So put the leftovers in the air fryer if you have any, get yourself set up on the couch, and let’s put up a green arrow.

Summary for the Lazy: Morgan Rogers has gone full 16/17 Philippe Coutinho. James Owens explores whether he can keep up this kind of form.

In his last six matches, Morgan Rogers has found the net six times from a total xG value of 2.16. An overperformance of +3.84. We’re watching a statistical anomaly where Rogers is effectively scoring nearly three goals for every one he 'should' get.

Every now and then a player will go on a run like this, and people question xG, or call the player an xG-breaker; last season it was Chris Wood. Whenever this happens, I think the best thing to do is put the current run into historical context.

Context like the fact that there are over 70,000 6 match windows for players in the PL since 2017, and Rogers’ last 6 matches ranks 35th for npxG overperformance.

You might assume Rogers is scoring more because he’s getting into better positions, but that’s not the case.

With 2.16 npxG from his last 19 shots, Rogers' average shot quality sits at 0.11 xG per shot. However, his conversion rate has exploded to 31.6%.

To put that in context, career-elite finishers like Son Heung-min or Erling Haaland typically sustain a conversion rate of 18–22%.

We have seen this before, and we have a pretty good idea how it ends. 

Last season, as the Prof predicted would happen in many newsletters, Wood’s goalscoring dried up.

Rogers’ current season trajectory mirrors Pukki, Lingard, and Almirón of seasons gone by. Once the variance normalised, the runs fizzled out. In Pukki’s case, after scoring 6 goals in his opening 5 PL games, he scored just five more goals in the PL for the rest of the season. From 6 goals in 5 games to 5 goals in 33 games!

Unless Rogers has quietly become statistically six times more clinical than Son, he is about to be hit with some heavy regression.

We often assume that massive statistical overperformance is indicative of being an elite finisher, even if we acknowledge that it’s unsustainable.

But that isn’t the case either. Here’s a list of players who we’d never consider as being good finishers who have had similar runs over 6 games: Alvaro Morata (+3.05), Raheem Sterling (+3.99), Calvert-Lewin (+2.79), Neal Maupay (+2.46).

The fact that these players can hit these exact same heights proves that a 6-game hot streak is often just noise, not a signal of quality.

So, how lucky is Rogers currently? To find out, I ran a simulation of Rogers' last 19 shots one million times.

99.7% of the time, a player with Rogers' shot profile scored fewer than six goals. It’s thrilling to watch - it’s an incredible player scoring some incredible goals - but you wouldn’t bet your house on him doing it again next gameweek.

None of this is to say Rogers isn’t a fantastic player, or that he isn’t a fantastic finisher. Both can be true whilst still acknowledging that the current streak is unsustainable and we shouldn’t sacrifice the good processes we follow by chasing points.

The FOMO might be strong, but do your best to maintain patience and good decision-making.

Summary for the Lazy: One more transfer in the making.

As per my message in the WhatsApp Broadcast Group earlier this week, I made two early transfers this week:

Both for obvious reasons.

Bruno has picked up a hamstring injury, and with Isak now out long term, Ekitike is nailed and Liverpool’s focal point in attack with great fixtures.

And with one FT left to use, I now have a very obvious move to make.

Chris Richards has to come out

Chris Richards was stretchered off against Arsenal in midweek and is now scheduled to be out until at least 2026.

And there’s one replacement in particular I have my eye on:

I want to get this out of the way first.

He’s a gamble. Lewis-Potter was used as a defender last season under Thomas Frank, and under Keith Andrews, he has struggled for regular minutes in either defence or attack.

Brentford have also played a wingback system in six matches, meaning their front three becomes a front two, reducing the potential for Lewis-Potter to feature.

However.

In the past two instances in which Schade and Dango have been unavailable, Lewis-Potter has been favoured.

And given his latest appearance resulted in 90 minutes with two goals, the logical assumption is that he will continue in Dango’s absence until either his performances drop off or Brentford change formation.

Due to the upside of having a £4.8m defender playing RF for Brentford with the following fixtures, the upside is simply too much for me not to gamble on.

I haven’t made the transfer yet, but it’s going to happen.

As always, despite what I did earlier in the week, I like to leave my transfers as late as possible.

This will be one I make just before the deadline, just in case any surprise news breaks before the gameweek kicks in.

Summary for the Lazy: Hall of Fame FPL manager James Cooper walks us through what he has planned for the festive season and beyond.

In my book, the Christmas holidays are for lazing around, over-eating and over-drinking. And all that indulgence puts me in a reflective mood.

In the Cooper household, that means reflecting on my FPL team.

So I’ve undertaken a somewhat meandering review of my side. Imagine Andy Carroll starring in A Christmas Carol - something like that. With cameo roles for Gabriel and Reijnders (OK, I’ll stop now).

The Ghosts of Christmas Past

Who do I not own, who’s still haunting me?

These are the players I don’t have, who are most impactful against me (and the extent to which they came back to bite me last gameweek):

Semenyo, I can live without him. His 10-pointer stings a little, but his numbers were dropping off, and I don’t regret moving off him. 

Guehi, I thought I had covered with Richards - more on which below…

Wilson and Rogers, I am absolutely happy not owning. It’s the same old stuff from me - even if they are great finishers who have been doing really well lately, it is just vanishingly unlikely they can keep this up in light of the type of shots they’re taking.

They are wildly overperforming their xG, much more than can be attributable to being a ‘good finisher’ (they’re not twice as good as Messi). I have been called a ‘stat shagger’ when making this point before, and I wear that badge with pride.

Rice carries on ticking away. I’ve got to concede he’s a valid option due to having multiple routes to points. He’s still not to my taste - ideally, I want strong goal threat from my midfielders.

O’Reilly is a great option, but not really within my range. The same cannot be said of Senesi, who is part of a Bournemouth defence which is faltering badly.

Ekitike has surged to prominence on the back of Isak’s long lay-off - suddenly a super pick, in my book. Great data and completely nailed, for a side which can only get better (surely…?)

The Ghosts of Christmas Present

In what respects am I content with my current crop of players - and where am I two parsnips short of a roast dinner?

As per the Broadcast, I made two early moves this week, leaving me on this:

My thinking was that Bruno had to go; Ekitike (borderline) had to come in; and both were changing in price, so it made sense to take the small risk and move early to save £0.2m.

I wasn’t really enamoured with Gordon, truth be told - but he was the only mince pie left in the box. I think his minutes have been a bit all over the shop, and I doubt he’ll play enough in the next five or so games for me to be really happy with him. But all the alternatives had issues too, and given the fixtures and penalties, he seemed to be the best punt available to me.

There was only one midweek game. What could go wrong?

This is really inconvenient - not just because I spent both my remaining Free Transfers already, but also because I now have only £0.1m banked to rectify any issues. 

If I can limp through without replacing Richards, that would be ideal. I don’t want to have to use a move on him, and there isn’t a lot at his price point that appeals. And I have other plans for my future Free Transfers (read on…). 

The rest of my merry band of men looks ok to me. 

The Ghosts of Christmas Future

There are three guys who I think I’m likely to want to accommodate in the next 3-5 gameweeks: 

1. Chelsea hit a really, really nice fixture run from around GW22. From 24, they play four of the teams scrapping for relegation in a row. 

And it just so happens they have a premium asset who has absolutely dominated FPL before, and is just coming back to full fitness. 

Palmer hasn’t delivered consistently in a little while, but he’s done enough previously that I’m willing - no, desperate - to take another turn on his carousel. 

Saka costs £0.2 less than Palmer. My current approach is that he’s keeping Cole’s spot warm for now, and I can make the sideways switch when the fixtures line up. 

2. More or less, everyone owned Gabriel. Then he got injured, and we all sold him. 

But he’ll be back before you know it. 

Gabriel still costs £6.2m, so not the easiest guy to slot in at a moment’s notice. 

Especially because I would really like to keep Timber, and add Gabriel as part of an Arsenal defensive triple-up. 

But finding the cash to get from Richards to Gabriel is no easy feat. Maybe I can’t get there. We shall see. 

3. Similar story here as above. Many of us were just starting to reap the rewards from keeping faith in Bruno. And then even he succumbed to a festive fallout. 

And he might be back sooner than we might initially have expected:

And when he’s back, I’ll want a route to reintroduce him to my side more or less immediately. 

Easier said than done, for £9.3m, while also wanting to bring in Palmer for Saka, and needing a chunk of change to add Gabriel at the back. 

I don’t know how I’m going to achieve all of that. But therein lies the fun. 

Enjoy your Boxing Day, you lot. Best festive wishes from Cooper at Lazy 🎄🎄

Summary for the Lazy: A look at some of the current leaders within the LazyFPL £3k prize league.

For those unaware, or may have forgotten, the Lazy 50 is our Premium mini-league that has 50 ways to win, totalling £3,000 worth of prizes.

But while we do reward great play, we also reward those who suffer from bad luck through the season.

So let’s have a look at how some of the prizes are stacking up so far this season.

The most jammy manager in our ranks, and currently on course for £50 at the end of the season for such luck, is Billy Ruffian, who has had a whopping 95 points come off his bench from auto-subs so far this season:

It’s safe to say everyone hates that one person in their mini-league who gets bench jam all the time. So this one is particularly funny.

More power to you, Billy.

And if Billy is hogging all the good luck so far this season, congrats to Alan Eder, who is on his way to winning £50 because so far this season his players have scored a whopping four own goals.

Although this one is close with nine other chases, they are all one behind on three.

Next up, we go to the bad boys of LazyFPL. The managers whose teams are booting the opposition off the park and picking up yellow cards along the way.

Fran & Ned, I don’t know what you’re instructing your boys to do, but they’re leaving one in early and letting the opposition know they’re there.

And finally, we have the Dychey Award. The highest percentage of points from goalkeepers and defenders.

Clean sheets first, lads. Come away with the 0-0 win.

Andrew Eicholz leads the way with a whopping 56% of his total points coming from his goalkeepers and defenders.

And that’s only four of the thirty prizes we have up for grabs at the end of the season.

To see all prizes and check if you’re in with a chance, you can see the latest tables here.

And that is us, reader.

Huge set of gameweeks on the horizon.

‘Tis the season where engaged managers usually excel. Let’s hope that’s the case

See you in the next one.

Professor