Gameweek 5 | The important FPL news.

The Stuff You Should Know

🚨 Gameweek 5’s deadline is Saturday 21st September, 11:00 BST.

🙏 Pedro has trained this week, Watkins is “okay” according to Emery.

🤕 Odegaard out for “hopefully not months”.

🤦‍♂️ De Bruyne, Alisson and Isak doubts for Gameweek 5.

👀 Dyche “hopeful” that Calvert-Lewin’s illness has gone.

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Keep reading to see the Prof actually make a transfer for once.

Alright?

If Gameweeks were UK Prime Ministers, Gameweek 4 would’ve been somewhere between Liz Truss and Baldrick at the end of Blackadder: Back and Forth.

It was terrible by all accounts, but contrary to conventional wisdom, bad gameweeks don’t necessarily mean bad news for managers. In fact, a strange, unpredictable and low-scoring gameweek can be exactly what a top manager needs.

That’s because bad gameweeks usually give rise to bad decisions. Inexperienced managers tend to panic when their best-laid plans go awry, and that means taking hits, picking differentials and making other reactionary moves that multiply, rather than heal, their post-Gameweek pain more often than not.

But Lazy managers don’t panic. Panic, frustration, anger: these pursuits take up far too much energy. Instead, simply by virtue of being lazy, we’ll recline our way to success, cocktail in hand, wondering what all the fuss is about.

Let’s cast a lazy eye over Gameweek 5.

Gameweek 5’s fixtures.

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Forward thinking.

Depending on who you started the season with, it’s likely your front-three are causing you some concern this week.

Much like explosive diarrhoea, it’s the uncertainty that really gets you. Conclusive news - even if it’s bad news - would be a welcomed relief at this point. If we need to sit on the toilet, we’ll do it, but don’t lull us into a false sense of security.

We’ll try to lift some of that ambiguity here:

What’s the current situation?

Keep an eye on press conferences throughout Friday, but here’s the latest on the less-certain forwards, ranked by most likely to be out this weekend:

1) Yoane Wissa - out for a few months.

2) Rodrigo Muniz - benched in Gameweek 4 and played 90 minutes in midweek.

3) Alexander Isak - got twatted in the face by a ball in Gameweek 4, which lead to copious amounts of blood and a subsequent eye issue. Now there are rumours that he’s got a toe problem too, and this seems to be his chief concern ahead of Gameweek 5. He was not pictured in midweek training, but that isn’t conclusive evidence that he missed it altogether.

4) Joao Pedro - wasn’t risked in midweek but he’s back in training now.

5) Dominic Calvert-Lewin - has recovered from an illness.

6) Ollie Watkins - fine after an early substitution last gameweek.

What should you do with Isak?

Summary for the Lazy: It’s probably time to sell.

The biblical version of Isaac lives to be 180 years old, but based on Alexander Isak’s injury record, it’s unlikely the FPL version will achieve that sort of longevity.

His eye - and now his toe - means the Swede isn’t a certainty for Gameweek 5. He also has Man City in Gameweek 6, followed by a fixture run that includes Brighton, Arsenal and Chelsea in his next six. Injury aside, this might be the most compelling reason to consider moving him on.

It goes against Lazy protocol to sell a fit player who’s on penalties against a Fulham side yet to keep a clean sheet. But Howe has said in this morning’s press conference that a decision will be made on him later.

This continued ambiguity, combined with his challenging upcoming fixtures, is enough of a reason to move him on. We’ll talk about possible replacements shortly.

What to do with everyone else?

Summary for the Lazy: Wissa and Muniz should go. Keep Watkins and Pedro.

Those who own Wissa and Muniz probably ought to start shopping. Muniz is fit, but appears to have lost his place - rightfully, it has to be said - to FPL legend Raul Jimenez for the time being.

We would not advise getting rid of Pedro unless we get concrete news that he’s not ready. Despite the good news that he’s back in training, he’s still the second-most transferred out player this week.

If you already own Calvert-Lewin or Watkins, there’s no reason to get rid (and in fact, both make fantastic replacements for your exiting forwards).

Who are the best forwards to buy right now?

Summary for the Lazy: Watkins and Wood are great. Calvert-Lewin could do particularly well in Gameweek 5.

🥇 Despite his slow start and uncharacteristically sporadic minutes, Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) is the pick of the bunch for us. His xG this season is second only to Haaland, and his fixtures (WOL, ips, MUN, ful, BOU) are tip top too. Assuming he continues to be given more minutes, he could well flourish.

But at £8.9m, he’s pricey. You’ll need money in the bank to get him - quite a lot if you’re hoping to make the switch from the likes of Muniz.

🥈 Chris Wood (£6.1m) is our favourite budget pick. He’s got good fixtures (bri, FUL, che, CRY, lei, WHU), decent stats (top 10 for xG) and two goals to his name already.

🥉 Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m) also does it for us. The Professor dropped some gold in his latest email: he pointed out that Leicester (his Gameweek 5 opponent) have conceded the most headed shots so far this season. Do with that what you will.

Danny Welbeck (£5.7m), Joao Pedro (£5.7m), Dominic Solanke (£7.5m), Nicolas Jackson (£7.6m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.4m) are all decent picks too: the latter two are being seriously overlooked.

A note on Jamie Vardy

Jamie Vardy is the second-most popular transfer-in this week. He’s had three shots in four games. He’s a legend, but approach with caution.

What are the top managers doing this week?

Summary for the Lazy: many be Wildcarding next week, which affords them more freedoms this week.

Gameweek 6 has been earmarked as a natural time to Wildcard for many top managers.

That’s because of the fixture swing. Contrary to popular belief, a fixture swing doesn’t involve putting your keys into a bowl.

Fixture swing: a week in the fixture calendar in which several important teams start a run of easy or difficult fixtures.

Teams like Man City, Arsenal and Brentford start a run of great fixtures from Gameweek 6. Conversely, Liverpool, Newcastle and Fulham embark upon a more treacherous path.

So the Gameweek 6 Wildcard is intended to capitalise on this shift.

It gives these managers the rare opportunity to have a bit more fun with Gameweek 5, because their transfers this week needn’t be permanent.

For those not planning a Wildcard in Gameweek 6, it’s business as usual. If they’re carrying an injured or out-of-favour player, they’ll be the first priority.

The best captain for Gameweek 5.

Summary for the Lazy: it’s tough, but we like Salah.

As you’ll expect, there are two main contenders this week: Erling Haaland (Arsenal at home) and Mohamed Salah (Bournemouth at home).

Salah is the “obvious” pick here, and that’s why we like him more. He has the better fixture and, despite blanking last gameweek, his form this season has been exceptionally good. He’ll also likely be the most popular pick amongst active teams.

But Haaland. Mythical, Norse God, Viking-like Haaland. The following section has been written to indulge those of you who are still torn between these two giants.

____

(We’re going to interrogate the stats here, but note that the stats are based on a sample-size of just four games, which is still relatively small.)

Bournemouth have an xGA (expected goals allowed) of 6.63 so far this season, 3.8 of which were conceded away from home. This puts them 12th for defensive rigidity: not great, but not awful either.

Arsenal’s xGA is 4.5 - which puts them 6th. They’re 4th for xGA away from home.

So, shock horror, the stats reinforce the thing we already knew: Arsenal have a better defence than Bournemouth. Hopefully you were sat down for that bombshell.

With that said, Haaland’s xG (expected goals) is 4.54 - nearly double that of Salah’s (2.19) so far. Based on all of these stats, Haaland is the more likely to score.

But the bookies disagree. They’ve given Salah a 45% chance of scoring, whilst Haaland has just 39%.

And let’s not forget that there are more ways to score FPL points than just goals. Salah’s xA (expected assists) is 1.74 - dwarfing Haaland’s 0.41.

If you’re still left wanting more, the cherry atop Salah’s buzzcut is that Haaland, for all of his majesty, blanked in both fixtures vs Arsenal last season. Salah, meanwhile, scored at home against Bournemouth last season and, with an xG of 1.68, might’ve had more.

Like most of us, The Prof had a shocker last week. As was always planned, he’s finally making some transfers too.

Muniz > Calvert-Lewin is locked in.

He’ll probably get rid of Isak too, but as yet, he’s not entirely sure who’ll replace him.

Captaincy: Mo Salah. The Prof describes it as a “no-brainer”.

If you want access to The Prof’s up-to-the-minute plans, join LazyFPL Premium for loads of benefits.

The key stats.

Pick results, win an Xbox Series X.

We’ve partnered with Sleeper this season to give out £8k’s worth of prizes.

This month we’re giving away an Xbox Series X.

It’s hard to find non-gambling partners in the football space, and we’re delighted that playing this game doesn’t involve having to spend any money - it’s totally free and you might win something chunky.

You just create an account, pick who you think will win or draw, score points (hopefully) and have a bit of fun.

Other stuff we found interesting.

1. We’re on Instagram now. Follow us here for daily summaries of important news.

2. Saka has scored or assisted every Arsenal Premier League goal this season.

3. UCL and EFL fixtures happened this week. Most teams fielded strong line-ups, with Watkins, Rogers, Salah, Jota, Trent, Haaland, Lewis, Gvardiol, KdB, Saka, Saliba, Gabriel and Havertz all starting. Diaz was the most notable player to start on the bench.

4. Pep has said he's likely to make half-time substitutions against Arsenal. “It’s a new version of Pep.”

See you again next week.

Stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.