🚨 GW37: The FPL cheat sheet 🧠

⏰ Gameweek 37’s deadline is Friday, 15th May, 18:30 BST.

🏆 Man City and Chelsea will play in the FA Cup final on Saturday. Their Gameweek 37 games will take place on Tuesday, 19th May.

🤝 Thanks to the legends who have done our survey. For those who haven’t, please take a minute to fill it out. It dictates how we run this newsletter.

🔄 Pep Guardiola has hinted at possible rotation in Gameweek 37, which comes just three days after the FA Cup final.

Alright?

It’s nearly the end of the season. Not quite time for “Don’t Look Back in Anger” and taxis arriving outside, but things have progressed enough that the metaphorical tie has been knotted around the metaphorical head of the metaphorical bellend at the metaphorical party that is the 25/26 campaign.

Managers are getting sloppy. Starting to make the sort of careless decisions that only happen after a few too many power ballads.

Let this newsletter be your pint of tactical tap water. Sure, you’re still having a good time, and yes, you’ll be air-bassing to some Level 42 with the rest of them before long.

But you’ve still got your wits about you. Gameweek 37 matters just as much as Gameweek 1, regardless of whether your mini-league has devolved into a conga line of differentials and frivolous points hits. Here’s how to take full advantage.

FotMob is our go-to live scores app, and it’s not even close. As the last-day bedlam of Gameweek 38 approaches, it’s essential to have an app that gives you goalscorers and assists as they happen.

Here are three reasons why the entire LazyFPL team uses FotMob (and have done long before they paid us for ads):

1) They have a live FPL points toggle. You can also see the live defensive contributions of every player.

2) It’s not just live scores. It’s live shot maps, heat maps, underlying data…you name it.

3) It’s free, and not in an annoying way. You won’t be getting constant pop-ups or intrusive ads.

Speaking of intrusive ads, we never have more readers thank us for an ad than we tell them about FotMob. It’s a proper life-improver.

Your mini-league rival has the infinity stones. Of the 14,000,065 possible scenarios we’ve looked at, there’s only one in which you’ll triumph. Bizarrely, it involves bringing in, and captaining, Burnley’s Lesley Ugochukwu for the remaining two games.

But seriously, endgame strategy in FPL is an important part of being the sort of manager your mini-league rivals hate, and it’s entirely dependent on where you find yourself at the moment.

(We’ll focus on mini-league strategy in this section. If you care more about overall rank, there’s a section for you next.)

Let’s run through some scenarios (slightly fewer than 14,000,065 of them).

Scenario 1 - You’re winning your mini-league.

If you’ve been reading LazyFPL for long, there’s a decent chance you’re already where you need to be - in FPL and in life.

But that doesn’t mean you’ll stay there. As the season nears an end, having a clear idea of which players the chasing pack own, and which players they’re likely to bring in, is paramount.

Defending an FPL lead is a privilege and should be treated as such. Don’t squander a season’s worth of hard work for “vibes” or, even worse, “fun”. Find the joy in being impossible to catch by choosing the players your rivals already own. They can’t profit from those points if you’re getting them too.

Actions this week: Perve on the chasing teams in your league. Try to cover as many of the threats as possible, but avoid taking a points hit.

Scenario 2 - You’re ~1-25 points off your nearest rival.

You’re close, but not quite there. One gameweek - one remarkable individual player performance - could swing it in your favour. Equally, your rival could be out of sight by the start of Gameweek 38 if you’re not careful.

In this scenario, your best move is to stay close to your rival. If they own Bukayo Saka, you ought to make Saka a priority. If they’re bringing in Burnley’s Lesley Ugochukwu, you need to bring in Burnley’s Lesley Ugochukwu.

There’s no need to go balls-to-the-wall yet. Too aggressive, and you’re the distance runner sprinting too early. Save the theatrics for Gameweek 38 if they’re needed.

Actions this week: Resist the temptation to be too aggressive. Cover the big threats. Don’t take a points hit.

Scenario 3 - You’re ~26-50 points off your nearest rival.

Whilst you’re not totally dead in the water, you’re probably going to need more than one gameweek’s worth of outscoring your rival to catch them. There’s hope, but it’s time to be aggressive, and in FPL, aggression means clicking on lower-owned players with high upsides.

You’re not in Burnley’s Lesley Ugochukwu territory yet, mind you. A couple of “obvious” differentials like Viktor Gyökeres or Jérémy Doku could be enough, and you’ll probably need to captain them to make up the deficit.

Actions this week: There’s a high chance you already own a few differentials, which might be why you’re in this mess to begin with. Expect to lose your league, but feel empowered to go down swinging with a few “obvious” differentials. Don’t take a points hit.

Scenario 4 - You’re ~51-100 points off your nearest rival.

You’re probably not strong enough to actually throw a kitchen sink, but if you could, you’d be throwing it at these final two gameweeks.

Your chances of catching your rival at this point are, we’re sad to tell you, highly unlikely. But crazier things have happened. Perhaps this is the season you’ll talk about for years. “Hey, remember that time when I bought Burnley’s Lesley Ugochukwu and he scored a hat-trick against Arsenal?”

Points hits, weird differentials, hipster captains - they’re all on the table now. You’ll almost certainly fail, but at least you’ll have some fun.

Actions this week: You know that gut instinct you’ve been ignoring up until now? It’s probably time to act on it. If you think Wolves are going to finish strong, or that Benjamin Šeško is due a haul, act accordingly.

Scenario 5 - You’re ~100+ points off your nearest rival.

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

The strategic principles explored in the section above largely apply here too. How close you are to reaching your overall rank target should determine the level of aggressiveness you deploy between now and the end of the season.

The formula is simple: Desperation for Points = Level of Aggression.

The big difference, of course, is that instead of paying close attention to the teams in your mini-league, you’ll need to keep an eye on a player’s overall ownership.

The threats are the highly owned players that you don’t have. The opportunities are the low-owned players with lots of potential for scoring FPL points (or, as we call them in the biz, differentials).

In lazy terms:

- If you’re ahead of target, stick to the template, make sure you have decent Arsenal coverage this week and don’t get fancy with your captain. You’re in a nice position, and it should be relatively straightforward to stay there.

- If you’re behind your target, remember the formula. Desperation for Points = Level of Aggression. The more desperately you need to make up ground, the more differentials, points hits and fancy captains you’re allowed. Just don’t make the mistake of expecting this strategy to improve things. It almost certainly won’t.

It’s Beach Watch, the long-awaited sequel to Baywatch. But instead of Pamela Anderson running along the sand in slow-mo, it’s the Professor, and guess what, he’s forgotten his nipple-chafe ointment. Things are about to get red and sore.

One of the most charming features of this season is the fact that so many teams still have something to play for. After all, there are still scenarios in which eight teams can theoretically qualify for a European tournament. But as of last week, a few more teams now find themselves on the beach, digging holes, skimming stones, and trying to avoid getting too much sand stuck in their cracks.

Here’s an updated list:

⛱️Crystal Palace

Not only are they on the beach, but they’ve got a European final to think about. Expect heavy rotation.

🏝️Leeds

A new addition to the beach, Leeds are now mathematically safe and out of the FA Cup. The beach towel is officially down, but they still put out a decent side against Spurs last Monday.

☀️Nottingham Forest

Yup, also mathematically safe.

🏖️Manchester United

They already have Champions League locked in. It’s still possible for them to finish fourth if they lose both of their games and Liverpool win both of theirs, but that’s probably not enough to ensure a full-strength line-up across both games.

💩Burnley and Wolves

The relegation twins.

The rest - including Brentford (8th), Chelsea (9th), Everton (10th), Fulham (11th), Sunderland (12th) and even Newcastle down in 13th - could scrape into Europe, though the odds of that happening decrease as you work through the list.

Brighton (7th), Bournemouth (6th), Aston Villa (5th) and Liverpool (4th) are separated by six points and chaseable goal difference. They’ll be pursuing better European football, but also defending their league positions from the chasing pack.

For reasons that are hopefully obvious to you by now, Man City and Arsenal are also invested.

Here are three differentials that probably won’t get picked up by the masses.

Enzo Fernández - 10.7% owned

Cole Palmer is probably the best pick if you’re looking to capitalise on Chelsea’s nice double of Spurs (H) and Sunderland (A), but Palmer is also unwieldy and expensive. Buying him is like buying a grand piano for your two-up, two-down. If you’ve got the funds and the vacancy for an expensive midfielder, you should prioritise Bukayo Saka.

Enzo, meanwhile, is more of an acoustic guitar. Still capable of producing magic, but much more affordable. Plus, he doesn’t eat into your team’s square footage.

He’s scored two of Chelsea’s last three goals.

William Osula - 1% owned

Phwoar, a proper differential, this. One for the purists. Osula’s recent form is a small positive in what has been a largely negative season for Newcastle. He’s scored three goals from his last five outings, and is seventh for expected goal involvements (xGI) over the last six gameweeks.

He tends to get substituted around the 60th-70th minute, but with West Ham (H) and Fulham (A) waiting, he might not need 90 minutes to make a mark.

Jarrod Bowen - 12.7% owned

Six gameweeks ago, it felt like everyone owned Bowen. Now it feels like nobody does. Your mini-league rival probably doesn’t, and it’s green arrows all around if he hauls between now and Gameweek 38. He’s got Newcastle (A) and Leeds (H) to do exactly that.

Look, Bowen is on this list because of the narrative. He doesn’t have great underlying stats. He’s playing for a struggling team. But he has a narrative. It would be fitting that Bowen, the talisman that he is, rises to the occasion in West Ham’s hour of need, just as he has so many other times this season. He hasn’t scored since Gameweek 24. That has to change soon, right?

It’s a tricky captaincy decision this week.

Erling Haaland has been our go-to pick in recent gameweeks, but the Norse God’s Saturday afternoon appointment at Wembley Stadium makes it hard to back him.

Firstly, because he might get injured, but secondly, because he might have to play 120 minutes of football just three days before Man City’s Gameweek 37 fixture away at a very in-form Bournemouth. Pep has hinted at possible rotation, and it’s just not worth the risk.

Bruno Fernandes doesn’t need to worry about such calendar conflicts. He has fewer dates than an FPL manager at a speed-dating event. Man United host an already-safe Nottingham Forest. It’s a good fixture, but Carrick’s men are effectively on the beach themselves, and may not be at full strength.

It’s Arsenal’s assets at home vs Burnley that Gerard Piqués our interest the most. Plenty of your mini-league rivals will own Bukayo Saka, and we expect him to be the most popular captain amongst active managers in general.

Viktor Gyökeres is an interesting differential captain with a big upside, though he’s by no means guaranteed 90 minutes (Gameweek 36 was only the fourth full PL game he’s played since Gameweek 9).

As is fitting for Gameweek 37, it’s a week ripe for opportunistic differentials. For assured minutes, captaincy popularity and potential upside, Saka has to be our pick. But the complexion of your mini-league will determine whether that’s a rogue move or a defensive choice.

The Professor is pulling his hair out this week. And not his head hair.

He doesn’t know what he wants to do. Here are his possible moves:

Pascal Struijk → William Saliba
Antoine Semenyo → Enzo Fernández

He’s also flirting with Leandro Trossard as a possible differential.

Bukayo Saka gets the armband. Here’s his team as things stand.

If you want to know what moves the Prof (and his band of not-so-merry pundits) make before the deadline, upgrade to LazyFPL Premium like the other cool kids.

🧠 Your moves largely depend on your position. This is big-brain stuff: Play tight and defensive if you’re winning. If you’re chasing, you can be more aggressive, but make sure it’s proportionate to the gap you’re trying to close.

🧢 Bukayo Saka will likely be the most popular captain amongst dedicated managers, but pay close attention to your mini-league.

💔 It’s the penultimate gameweek. No matter how miserable Gameweek 37 gets, remember how much you’ll miss this in a few weeks.

Next week is the last gameweek of the season. 10 simultaneous games, and millions of FPL fates sealed.

Don’t worry, it’ll all be over soon.

See you next Saturday.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.