🚨 BGW31: The FPL cheat sheet 🧠

⏰ Blank Gameweek 31’s deadline is Friday, 20th March, 18:30 GMT ⏰

❌ It’s a blank gameweek. Man City, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Wolves won’t play.*

👀 *But there is a very small chance that Man City and Crystal Palace will play at some point in BGW31. This will only happen if Crystal Palace get knocked out of Europe and the Premier League decides there’s enough time to squeeze their fixture into BGW31.

🤦 Jurriën Timber was not in the squad for Arsenal’s midweek UCL game.

🩼 Mohamed Salah was subbed off in Liverpool’s UCL game with an apparent injury. He asked to be withdrawn.

🤕 Trevoh Chalobah is out for 6 weeks (Gameweek 35) with an ankle injury, and Reece James has “tweaked his hamstring” - Rosenior.

😭 There’s a 19-day break between gameweeks after Blank Gameweek 31.

Alright?

Despite our relentless campaigning, blank gameweeks haven’t been afforded the same governmental gravitas as less important stuff like the clocks changing or severe weather warnings. They don’t even make the local news.

But that’s good for you. Most managers - including, we’d wager, some of those in your mini-leagues - will be puzzled as to why the likes of Erling Haaland and Gabriel are lacking a fixture this weekend.

If you’ve had Blank Gameweek 31 on your radar prior to right now, you’re already doing better than most. Here’s everything you need to know to ensure you don’t come out of it looking like a total Blanker.

Trigger warning: This newsletter plumbs some previously unexplored depths. It’s longer than we’d like. But we aim to tell you everything you need to know, even if that means getting into the nitty-gritty. Stick on your safety goggles and let’s dive in.

LazyFPL now has a podcast, exclusive to LazyFPL Premium members. But, just like the deli counter at Morrisons, we’re giving you a taster. Make that two tasters.

You can listen to two of the latest episodes, for free 👇

Episode 1: The Professor and hall-of-famer James Cooper on their punts and plans for the coming weeks.

Episode 2: The Professor on whether you should sell Erling Haaland this week.

The podcast will become a regular feature of our premium offering next season, with episodes released throughout the week. Most episodes will be hosted by the Professor, with frequent guest appearances from our team of hall-of-fame pundits.

Short episodes (usually 10-15 minutes), but we want to squeeze as much value into them as possible. It’s like if Messi were an FPL podcast. The intention is to offer a different medium for managers who prefer to listen rather than read.

If you want to give yourself the best possible chance of a decent finish to the season, you can join LazyFPL Premium for less than the cost of a pint per month 👇

Lazy Summary: There’s a very small chance that Man City and Crystal Palace will play in Blank Gameweek 31 after all - but it’s not worth planning for yet.

Let’s acknowledge the Haaland-shaped elephant in the room: there’s a very small chance that Man City and Crystal Palace will still play at some point in Blank Gameweek 31.

It’s contingent on several unlikely-to-happen permutations - the biggest one being that Crystal Palace get knocked out of Europe. At the time of sending, they’re 0-1 up against AEK Larnaca, so this is probably a null point. Even if Larnaca can turn it around, there’s no guarantee that Palace’s fixture will be moved to this gameweek.

If Crystal Palace get through to the next round, they (and therefore Man City) will definitely blank.

It’s sort of like that Avengers film, where Doctor Strange looks at 14 million different futures and only sees one where the group beats Thanos. There are 14 million scenarios here, and only one of them has Man City and Crystal Palace playing in Blank Gameweek 31.

For the purposes of writing a caveat-free newsletter, we’re assuming that Blank Gameweek 31 means Man City and Crystal Palace - as well as Arsenal and Wolves - aren’t playing. The advice in this newsletter is based on that assumption.

But we will say this:

If Crystal Palace do get knocked out on Thursday evening, it opens the door to a rearranged fixture with Man City that falls within Blank Gameweek 31.

It’s highly unlikely we’ll get confirmation of that rearrangement before the FPL deadline, which means there’s a case to start your blanking Man City players just in case they do end up playing. Safe in the knowledge that they’ll be substituted if they do indeed have a blank. Again, this is only necessary if Crystal Palace get knocked out on Thursday evening.

Lazy summary: A lot of managers are playing their Wildcard next week, which makes Blank Gameweek 31 an opportunity to find a one-gameweek stand. Just look out for player value.

We discussed the concept of ‘dead-ending’ a few newsletters ago. Just as a reminder, it’s when you bring in a player (or several players) knowing you don’t have to keep them in your team for long, either because you’re approaching a Wildcard or the end of the season.

But when a Wildcard is imminent, this principle can be applied to transfers OUT, as well as players we want to bring in.

Some managers, for example, will be comfortable with selling players like Gabriel and Antoine Semenyo this week, because they know they’re Wildcarding in Gameweek 32 anyway. The Wildcard gives them the opportunity to bring them back in, should they wish.

So, if you’re planning to Wildcard in Gameweek 32, your decisions ahead of Blank Gameweek 31 have a very short lifespan. Which is liberating, in a way. This is like spring break for FPL managers.

But hang on, put the lube away. We can’t get too crazy. There’s a killjoy at this party, and its name is player value.

Remember that some of your long-held players will have accrued value whilst in your team. FPL’s strain of capitalism is particularly savage - you only get £0.1m of profit for every £0.2m in value that the player has gained since you bought him. And it’s rounded down. God only knows where the rest goes - probably lines the pockets of the elite.

Case in point, Gabriel is currently £7.2m. If you bought him at £6.5m, you’ll only be able to sell him for £6.8m at the time of sending (you get £0.3 of the £0.7m increase). He’ll still cost you £7.2m to buy back.

Don’t ignore this capital gains tax - it will prohibit your ability to afford desirable moves further down the line.

(If you’re unsure about where to find this player price info, click “List” on the “Transfers” page. You’ll then be able to view “Current Price”, “Selling Price”, and “Purchase Price”. We’ve made a sophisticated diagram below).

Lazy summary: Haaland’s stats and short-term fixtures are poor. But if you’re playing your Wildcard in Gameweek 32, removing him this week is a low-risk move.

The Norse God has been conspicuously human in recent weeks. And in this context (as with most contexts), we’re using human as a synonym for “disappointing”.

He’s the most transferred-out player this week. But is that the right play?

His fixtures.

After Blank Gameweek 31, Haaland has to face Chelsea (A) and Arsenal (H) in Gameweeks 32 and 33.

Man City may get two fixtures in (possible double) Gameweek 33, which would mean Arsenal (H) + Burnley (A). We’ll know for sure before Gameweek 32.

So, at the moment, we know he has a blank gameweek, followed by two tricky gameweeks - one of which could be a double. After that, his fixtures improve for the run-in.

In a sense, it’s weird to be talking about Haaland’s fixtures. He’s a player who, until recently, was seemingly impervious to the trivial concerns of us mortals (like fixture difficulty). But with just three goals from his last 13 Premier League games, it’s a different story now.

His stats.

It’s a testament to his freakish form in the first half of the season that Haaland is still top for most of the important attacking stats in the 25/26 campaign. But in recent weeks, his statistical output has dropped.

Over the last six gameweeks, he’s 11th for expected goal involvements (xGI). Over the last four gameweeks, he’s not even in the top 20. This might be acceptable for most players, but not for the bloke who’s setting you back £14.5m.

The alternatives.

Haaland’s appraisal is not going fantastically so far. If he were still in his probationary period, he’d already be on Indeed.

But it’s hard to find talent out there at the moment. For all of Haaland’s disappointment, only four forwards have outscored his 26 points over the last six gameweeks. It’s a smörgåsbord of accents: João Pedro (48), Viktor Gyökeres (38), Benjamin Šeško (32) and Jârród Boŵen (28). Shut up.

Most of you will own Pedro. Šeško and Gyökeres are big minutes risks. Bowen has been sturdy all season, but West Ham are hardly free-scoring.

Which begs the question, if not Haaland, then who?

Perhaps the solution is to downgrade to a cheap but viable forward, then splash the cash in midfield. But with Mohamed Salah’s dip in form, managers don’t really have a money problem this season.

In other words, we don’t need to get rid of Haaland to move to other premiums. Just like Harry Potter when he sees a refreshments cart, we can take the lot.

So, what’s the move?

Barring the Thanos scenario, Haaland will not score any goals in Blank Gameweek 31. If you’re planning to play your Wildcard in Gameweek 32, you’ll know by then whether Man City will have a double gameweek on the horizon.

That gives you a chance to pick any one of the forwards who are playing in Blank Gameweek 31, then Wildcard Haaland back into your team afterwards, should a double gameweek be announced. The only downside is a loss in team value.

If you’re not playing your Wildcard, you need to think much more carefully about moving him out now. We’d advise benching him until you have more information.

Lazy summary: Fulham players, Dango, Szoboszlai, Thiaw.

So you’ve got a few free transfers and a Wildcard ready for Gameweek 32. Congrats, you’re ready for a one-gameweek stand.

When looking for a good one-gameweek stand, we’re scrutinising the fixture above all else. This is about picking a player to attack a weak team. It doesn’t matter if they’re a differential. It doesn’t matter if they have crap fixtures after this one. All that matters is that, for the ~90 minutes that you own them, they give you the time of your life.

Here are some considerations:

Anyone from Fulham

Aside from Harry Wilson, Alex Iwobi and Raúl Jiménez are interesting picks. Both have two goals from their last four and they play Burnley at home, so as far as fixtures go, it doesn’t get better than that. It’s worth noting that Jiménez hasn’t completed 90 minutes since Gameweek 24.

Their defenders are also worth a look.

Dango Ouattara

There’s a decent chance you own Igor Thiago, but Dango’s 3.8% ownership puts him very firmly in the hipster category. He has five attacking returns from his last seven games.

Dominik Szoboszlai

Aside from a remarkable propensity to score bangers, Szoboszlai has hit DEFCON points in four of his last seven games (including his last two fixtures). Brighton are nothing if not leaky this season.

Malick Thiaw

For those looking beyond Fulham defenders, Thiaw is worth a second glance. No defender has more expected goal involvements over the last six gameweeks, and he’ll play Sunderland at home. It’s a favourable fixture (Sunderland don’t score many away), but it’s also a derby.

Lazy summary: Save up your free transfers, but don’t worry. The Double Gameweek isn’t expected to be particularly juicy, which reduces your exposure to pain.

Here’s a confession: This writer doesn’t have a Wildcard either. There’s a support group - we meet on Tuesdays.

There’s no sugarcoating it; not having a Wildcard restricts your freedom of movement. Life will be harder over the next few gameweeks. But things should be fine. Here’s why:

Blank Gameweek 31 - Hopefully you’re on top of this.

Gameweek 32 - Other managers will be Wildcarding. You’ll be using free transfers to prepare for the Double Gameweek 33 Bench Boost. Not ideal, but we move.

Double Gameweek 33 - Ben Crellin’s spreadsheet tells us which teams are most likely to have a double gameweek. Right now, it’s Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea and Newcastle. None of those teams are expected to have particularly good doubles, with Chelsea’s Man United (H) and Brighton (A) probably the pick of the bunch. You likely already have a few Arsenal and Chelsea players, and it’s highly debatable whether players from the other teams are even worth bringing in. We’ll discuss that more ahead of Gameweek 32.

Blank Gameweek 34 - Use your Free Hit.

Essentially, it’s the same strategy as everyone else, but rather than the convenience of a Wildcard, you’re going to have to lean on free transfers to navigate Double Gameweek 33. Spoiler alert: It’ll really help if you have some free transfers saved up.

Lazy summary: It’s Bruno Fernandes, but, as always these days, it’s close.

Ugh, these captaincy calls aren’t getting any easier. Igor Thiago, Harry Wilson, Bruno Fernandes and João Pedro are all in contention. Let’s do that thing we did last week:

Fernandes vs Bournemouth (A)

Bournemouth have only conceded three goals in their last seven games, but they’ve been incredibly fortunate, conceding 11.3 expected goals in the process. If statistical parity is to be restored, Bruno is surely the man to do it. He’s scored 31 points in his last three games.

Wilson vs Burnley (H)

A fun pick, this. He scored 16 points in the reverse fixture, and tends to do much better at home. You do the maths. Stats aren’t great, but he’s never really needed great stats to register great returns.

Thiago vs Leeds (A)

Has failed to score more than six points since Gameweek 21, but he’s looking dangerous again. Leeds away is no picnic.

João Pedro vs Everton (A)

One blank shouldn’t blind us to his form. Everton have kept five clean sheets at home this season, but only one (vs Burnley) this calendar year.

The lazy verdict.

It’s Fernandes for us. He’s just so talismanic for Man United, and whilst Bournemouth’s recent defensive record is impressive on a surface level, it’s statistically the sixth-worst in the league over the last six gameweeks. Add to that his high ownership and recent form, and he’s the safest option.

To prepare for Blank Gameweek 31, the Professor locked himself in his lab a month ago, equipped only with a spreadsheet of underlying stats, 30 cans of Monster, a year’s supply of Sweet & Spicy Wotsits and a pennywhistle.

Needless to say, his team is in better shape than his physique.

He’ll spend one free transfer to remove Nordi Mukiele, who still won’t be ready for Blank Gameweek 31. In his place will be one of Antonee Robinson, Kenny Tete or Malick Thiaw. A final decision will be made closer to the deadline.

Bruno Fernandes gets the armband.

(Erling Haaland is currently in due to the extremely slim timeline in which Crystal Palace crash out of the Europa Conference knockout stages and the Premier League move the Manchester City vs Crystal Palace fixture back into Gameweek 31.)

🍆 Those planning to Wildcard in Gameweek 32 can have some fun with a one-gameweek stand this week. But team value should be monitored closely.

👀 If you don’t have a Wildcard, be careful about removing players that you might want to bring back in the weeks to come. If you can field a viable 11 this week, roll a transfer.

🙄 There’s an outside chance that Man City and Crystal Palace will, in fact, play in Blank Gameweek 31. If Crystal Palace can overcome AEK Larnaca (they’re already 0-1 up at the time of sending), that chance extinguishes.

🤞 We’ll have a much clearer idea of the upcoming doubles/blanks prior to the Gameweek 32 deadline. You should hold off on making any moves before we get that clarity.

Right then. It’s difficult for both of us, but we have to part ways for nearly three weeks.

There’s plenty going on in the break - including FA Cup quarter-finals, World Cup qualifiers, two England friendlies and some Champions League action to boot. If there’s a lot of news, we’ll send you a cheeky bonus letter before Gameweek 32.

Stay lazy,

The LazyFPL Team.