Gameweek 30 | Everything you need to know.

The Stuff You Should Know

🚨 Gameweek 30’s deadline is Tuesday, 1st April, 18:15 BST.

⏰ For international readers, the clocks have changed in the UK. We are now on British Summer Time (BST), which is GMT+1.

⛔️ Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Man City will blank in Blank Gameweek 34.

‼️ Bukayo Saka is “ready to go” this gameweek and could start.

🩼 Erling Haaland left the Bournemouth game on crutches after being subbed off with an ankle issue.

🤕 Nuno says Chris Wood is “improving,” but it’s “very painful”.

🤦 Vitalii Mykolenko and Anthony Gordon are other possible international break casualties.

👌 Cole Palmer is back in training.

Keep reading for a solid Wildcard template.

Alright?

The only mercy afforded to FPL managers during the international break was the move from Greenwich Mean Time to British Summer Time, reducing the agonising wait for the return of Premier League football by a whole hour.

Otherwise, it was a pretty bleak fortnight. The mood feels post-apocalyptic. Managers emerge from their lead-lined vaults to find a barren wasteland of yellow flags, vague injury reports and a fixture calendar that’s only getting more complicated. We search through the remnants of our team, crusty-lipped and desperate for some good news, as bedraggled vultures feast on the remains of Chris Wood’s freakish goal-scoring form.

But fear not, weary traveller. This newsletter is the oasis in the desert. The Wetherspoons in the airport. The 24h McDonald’s on the long drive. Here, you’ll find sanctuary.

The football is back. Take a deep breath and zip up your HazMat suit: we’re going in.

Gameweek 30’s fixtures.

What’s the latest with the blanks and doubles?

Summary for the Lazy: We know a little bit more now.

Let’s start this section as we often do: with a peek underneath @BenCrellin’s spreadsheets:

So, due to the FA Cup results, we know that Crystal Palace, Man City, Aston Villa and Arsenal will all blank in Blank Gameweek 34.

But as Newton’s fourth law of motion states, every Blank Gameweek has an equal and opposite Double Gameweek. So, we also know that Crystal Palace, Man City, Aston Villa and Arsenal will all have at least one extra Double Gameweek.

Ben’s money is on these doubles taking place in Gameweek 33, hence why they’re colour-coded as “likely doubles”.

The Nottingham Forest vs Brentford game in Blank Gameweek 34 is a bit of an anomaly. Even though Nottingham Forest have made it to the FA Cup semi-finals, their fixture schedule makes it difficult to move the BGW34 fixture to Gameweek 33, or anywhere else for that matter.

As such, Ben reckons their game will likely be moved to a different day, but still within the confines of Blank Gameweek 34.

Capiche? Capiche.

The Wildcard bit.

Summary for the Lazy: If you’re playing your Wildcard, or you’re not sure if you should or not, read on.

It’s Wildcard season for some managers. Unlike the last time we spoke, we now know which teams are doubling, which gives us a chance to shape a Wildcard team around those sides.

We’ll assume you’re too lazy to refer back to the last proper newsletter we sent, so for posterity, here’s the chip usage table we shared back then:

The Professor is following this plan, by the way. That means he’s playing his Wildcard this week, despite the fact that Erling Haaland is injured (a big reason for playing the Wildcard was to bring him in).

You’ll need to be subscribed to LazyFPL Premium to see The Professor’s Wildcard team, but here’s a template Wildcard team for your reference. Note: This is not The Professor’s team:

Some things to acknowledge:

• Choosing two goalkeepers who play is more important than it was in Gameweek 1. That’s because of the Bench Boost, which, if you’re following The Professor’s plan, you’ll play in the Double Gameweek most of the doubles are moved to (probably either Gameweek 33 or Gameweek 36).

• There is a big emphasis on players with doubles coming up. Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Crystal Palace…these are the teams getting the most attention because they double soon.

• Some big players miss out on the template. Cole Palmer, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Bruno Fernandes - you don’t see many of these in current Wildcard teams.

• The announcement of Bukayo Saka’s return has justified his inclusion for most top managers.

• Most of the variance is in the budget midfielders and the goalkeepers. Morgan Rogers, Eberechi Eze, Nick Pope, Dean Henderson - all of these make regular appearances in drafts.

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Should you play your Wildcard, then?

Depending on how your team is looking, the common approach is to play it either this week or next week.

Playing it next week gives you more data to work with, but this week, popular players have some decent fixtures (e.g. Crystal Palace visit Southampton, Arsenal host Fulham, Newcastle host Brentford). Not owning popular Wildcard assets for those games is a risk.

The injury room.

Summary for the Lazy: Keep an eye on the pressers.

Playing your Wildcard gives you some immunity from the ever-growing number of injured players, but it’s worth keeping abreast of the latest developments regardless.

Let’s talk about ‘em:

Erling Haaland

Haaland was forced off during City’s win against Bournemouth on Sunday. He left the stadium like this:

No official update yet, but Pep’s press conference is tomorrow (Tuesday). Still, it doesn’t look good.

Chris Wood

Nuno Espirito Santo doesn’t know when Wood will return, describing his hip injury as “not good”. He also said it was a day-by-day thing and he’s improving, though, so he’s probably not going to be out for the long term.

Anthony Gordon

He’s suspended for Gameweek 30 anyway, but he came off with a hip injury in the England vs Albania game. Thomas Tuchel reckons there’s some bruising and pain, so nothing that sounds too serious. One to look at ahead of Newcastle’s Gameweek 31 fixture vs Leicester.

Cole Palmer

It might feel like several decades ago, but last gameweek Palmer was an unexpected no-show. He didn’t make the England camp, but is back in training.

Jean-Philippe Mateta

Injured with a rather savage ear wound prior to the break, Mateta is back playing now.

Vitalii Mykolenko

He wasn’t spotted in Everton’s training session last Friday, which is ominous. Avoid unless we get good news.

Penetrative Stats.

Summary for the Lazy: If Bukayo Saka can pick up where he left off, he’s well worth the outlay.

Here’s a graphic developed by scientists that illustrates the memory capacity of an average FPL manager:

So it’s no surprise that when a player gets injured for a long time, managers forget just how good they were before their absence.

Bukayo Saka was good before his untimely withdrawal 23 minutes into Gameweek 17. Really good. Indeed, he was the third-highest scoring player in the game behind Cole Palmer and Mohamed Salah.

Saka has always been a player capable of significantly outperforming his stats, and whilst he was punching above his statistical weight, he was hardly having bad season in that department either:

The fixtures

Arsenal might well have a Double Gameweek that includes Ipswich (A) and Crystal Palace (H) in Gameweek 33. If that happens, you have to imagine that a fit Saka will be an essential pick.

But in the meantime, their next three fixtures are FUL, eve and BRE.

Conclusion

The opportunity to own one of the most consistent and high-scoring players in the league as a differential doesn’t come around too often. And yet, with Arteta’s press conference still ringing in our ears, we have the chance to do exactly that this gameweek.

He may be slowly bled back into the Arsenal team but the news has been positive surrounding his return. Bringing him in now, potentially on a Wildcard, could mean you save a free transfer later down the line

The best captain for Gameweek 30.

It’s Mohamed Salah at home to Everton.

Erling Haaland might’ve provided some competition but, so long as he remains an injury doubt, the Salah pick is all the easier.

As already discussed, The Professor is playing his Wildcard this week.

We’ll be sharing his team here most gameweeks, but on such an important gameweek like this, his team selection will be a treat reserved for LazyFPL Premium members.

Luckily, you can join LazyFPL Premium for less than the cost of a pint a month, and it only takes about 15 seconds. To see the Prof's Wildcard team and a comprehensive breakdown of all his picks, plus access to all the other benefits of LazyFPL Premium, join here.

The key stats.

Other stuff we found interesting.

• Ethan Nwaneri is the most likely player to be impacted by Bukayo Saka’s return.

• We were mentioned in The Guardian last weekend. Nice.

• Brighton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth are currently 1st, 2nd and 3rd for team xG over the last four gameweeks.

• Matheus Cunha’s suspension has been extended, meaning he’s out until Double Gameweek 32.

It hasn’t escaped us that Gameweek 30 starts on April Fool’s Day - a sure sign, if ever there was one, that Gameweek 30 will be just as calamitous as the rest.

See you on Friday morning.

Stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.