The stuff you should know.
⏰ Gameweek 28’s deadline is Friday, 27th February, 18:30 GMT ⏰
🤕 Brian Brobbey and Nordi Mukiele are expected to be out for 2-3 weeks.
🔴 Florian Wirtz “felt his back” during the warm-up against Nottingham Forest, but Slot doesn’t think it’s serious. He was pictured arriving at training, but not spotted actually participating.
🏆 The LazyFPL mini-league is currently the top league in the entire world.
Good work, everyone.
Alright?
In Greek mythology, Sisyphus is condemned to push a huge boulder up a mountainside, only for it to roll back down as he nears the peak. This he must do for eternity.
If the story is true, it means that Sisyphus is still on that mountain, pushing the boulder closer towards its inevitable descent as we speak.
Yet even he, doomed to endless disappointment and frustration, would surely stay put on the mountain if the only means of escape was playing FPL this season.
Recent weeks have, for lots of us, felt very Sisyphean. Our teams look good. Our thinking is solid. And then our players just…don’t perform. We roll back down the mountain, ready to start pushing once more.
Still, the fact that LazyFPL is technically the best mini-league in the entire world at the moment is at least some indication that, whilst it’s bad for everyone, it’s slightly less bad for readers of this rag. Take some solace from that, if you can.
Here’s how to maximise your chances of the boulder staying put by the end of Gameweek 28.
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Gameweek 28’s fixtures.
The midweek games.
Lazy Summary: Newcastle progress, Forest and Palace play after this email is sent.
Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace are involved in European action during the week.
The lingua franca around Newcastle’s win is full of phrases like “Breezed”, “Cruised” and “Dispensed”, which is no surprise given they were 6-1 up after the first leg. A heavily rotated team saw Nick Woltemade play in an attacking midfielder role for the fourth game in a row.
As for Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace, they’re selfishly playing after this email is sent, which means we can only speculate at their fates. Where’s Cystic Greg when you need him?
Read this bit if your team is crap.
Lazy summary: Exercise patience. Make changes that future-proof your team from rotation and blanks.
Hello, all of our readers - we thought we’d find you here.
Here’s an indisputable fact: Everyone’s FPL team is crap at the moment. It doesn’t matter which players you own or how well you’re doing. Even the World #1 hates their team.
Every player you buy suddenly dips in form. Every player you sell starts scoring for fun. And thus, the cycle of torment continues. Boulders up the hill, and all that mythological nonsense.
What should you do?
The times when our patience is most tested tend to be the times when it’s most paramount.
You might be looking at your Wildcard with renewed enthusiasm. Perhaps a hit feels logical. We can’t see your team, but it’s unlikely either of these is a good call right now. For all of the misfortune that has befallen FPL managers, at least we don’t have to navigate swathes of injuries or suspensions.
In other words, our hands are not being forced.
Rather than jumping on the next bandwagon, the best managers are either rolling their transfers or using them to future-proof their teams against unexpected rotation and Blank Gameweek 31. It’s unsexy, but since when did anyone play FPL to increase their sexiness?
Transfer watch.
Lazy summary: Your moves now mostly depend on how prepared you are to navigate Blank Gameweek 31. Tread carefully.
Listen, it’s not in the Lazy playbook to start getting all prescriptive, but there are times in the season when the template feels pregnant with the weight of change.
This section provides some commentary on the key conversations happening this week.
Nico O’Reilly
Everyone wants O’Reilly. In Gameweek 27, he played as an attacking midfielder for Man City, despite being listed as a defender. It’s little wonder that he’s the most-transferred-in player this week.
And yet, for all of that allure, he only has three more fixtures (lee, NOT, whu) before a blank in Blank Gameweek 31.
It’s just not a good time to bring in Man City players - even the ones who have scored 30 points in their last two. And for all of O’Reilly’s (albeit overperforming) brilliance, it wouldn’t exactly be a shock to see him benched, substituted early or otherwise sentenced to time in the Pep Penitentiary for reasons unknown.
Lazy’s verdict: He’s a great pick if you somehow have the luxury of being able to bring in a Man City player without the fear of Blank Gameweek 31 on the horizon. Otherwise, we’d recommend avoiding him for now.
João Pedro
Poor Pedro. He’s registered at least one attacking return in each of his last six games. In an ocean of disappointing forwards, he is an island of reliability.
And yet, he’s the most-transferred-out forward this week. What gives?
The problem is his fixtures. Here’s Chelsea’s schedule:
01/03 (Gameweek 28) - Arsenal (A)
04/03 (Gameweek 29) - Aston Villa (A)
07/03 (FA Cup) - Wrexham (A)
10/03 - 11/03 (UCL) - TBC
14/03 (Gameweek 30) - Newcastle (H)
It’s a lot of football over a two-week stint. Pedro’s fixtures are undeniably tricky, and other commitments mean rotation (or “minute management”, to borrow the trendy term) is likely. Igor Thiago - hardly a bastion of good form - is his most popular replacement.
Lazy’s verdict: If you own a lot of Arsenal and Man City players, keeping Pedro - who plays Everton (A) in Blank Gameweek 31 - might be an astute move. If you’ll be able to navigate Blank Gameweek 31 comfortably and have the luxury of additional transfers, moving him on isn’t a terrible move.
Enzo Fernández
The most-transferred-out player this week, the narrative is that Cole Palmer’s return from injury (and resumption of penalty duties) and Chelsea's tricky upcoming fixtures render Fernández a poor pick.
In fact, Enzo’s expected goal involvements (xGI) over the last six gameweeks are the second-highest amongst midfielders. Only his colleague and penalty-thief, Palmer, bests his tally of 3.2.
Lazy’s verdict: He’s a good player, and keeping him is fine. If you’re swimming in free transfers, upgrading him is fine too.
Some differentials.
Lazy summary: Look to Bournemouth, Brentford, Liverpool and Fulham for under-owned players with great fixtures coming up.
It's starting to get to that point in the season where we can talk about differentials.
Health warning: They’re a high-risk, high-reward play. Most differentials are rubbish, which is why they’re differentials.
But as the season ebbs on and the desperation kicks in, differentials become a viable Hail Mary tactic. Think Admiral Nelson at the Battle of Trafalgar, but with much higher stakes.
The good bit.
Four teams have excellent fixtures coming up:
Liverpool - WHU, wol, TOT, bha, FUL
Brentford - bur, bou, WOL, lee, EVE
Bournemouth - SUN, BRE, bur, MUN
Fulham - TOT, WHU, nfo, BUR
Let's look at our favourite low-owned picks from each of these clubs.
Liverpool
Florian Wirtz (13.3%) - 6 attacking returns in his last 10 starts. Seems to be getting better. In the top 5 mids for expected goal involvements (xGI) over the last 7-8 gameweeks (excluding GW27, which he missed).
Ibrahima Konaté (3.7%) - Starts and plays 90. Hit DEFCON points in two of his last four games.
Brentford
Dango Ouattara (1.8%) - 5th amongst midfielders for xGI over the last six games. Started and played 90 in the last three games.
Bournemouth
Marcus Tavernier (1.1%) - Returning from injury, but on all set pieces (including penalties) when he’s back to full health.
Rayan (2%) - Three attacking returns in the four games he's played for Bournemouth.
James Hill (5.6%) - Just £4.1m and starting games. Three assists from his last five outings. Could be a nice replacement for the injured Nordi Mukiele.
Fulham
Raúl Jiménez (2.1%) - Bit of a minutes risk, but has three goals and one assist from his last four games. On pens. Fourth-highest xGI in the league over the last six gameweeks.
Honourable mention.
Elliot Anderson (6.2%) - The last time he scored fewer than four points in a game was Gameweek 18. He almost always gets DEFCON points. Had four shots last gameweek, too.
The best captain for Gameweek 28.
Lazy summary: It’s Erling Haaland.
After a brief hiatus, the Norse God is back on the captaincy menu this week. He’ll play Leeds away.
He’s aided by two consecutive blanks by the second-most intriguing option this week: Bruno Fernandes. His home fixture against Crystal Palace looks the better of the two on paper, but Crystal Palace’s defence has been sturdier than Leeds’ all season - even during their patchier form in more recent times.
Bruno is a good pick, and if his ownership were higher, he’d probably be the safer pick, too.
But whilst Haaland isn't back to his emphatic best yet, four consecutive returns mean he’ll be the most popular captain this week.
The Professor is almost certainly making a transfer this week.
Rayan Cherki > Dango Ouattara.
Unless there’s some unexpectedly bad news about Dango, he’s in. Cherki, who is the latest victim of Pep’s roulette wheel and will blank in Blank Gameweek 31, is an easy sacrifice.
The armband is currently on Bruno Fernandes. For the Professor, it’s one of the trickiest captaincy shouts of the season so far. He’s this close (you’ll just have to trust that we’re holding our thumb and finger really close together) to tossing a coin.
To find out who the coin lands on, and whether he makes any other moves between now and the deadline, you're welcome to join LazyFPL Premium.
Here’s his team, before any transfers have been made:
Player form (Last 6)
Team form (Last 6)
Your Gameweek 28 checklist.
🔄 Use your free transfers to protect your team from future rotation and the looming prospect of Blank Gameweek 31.
👀 Chelsea players have a tough couple of fixtures, but crucially, they play in Blank Gameweek 31 (and have a good fixture vs Everton).
🔵 Man City players, like Nico O’Reilly, are tempting, but remember they’ll miss Blank Gameweek 31. Bringing them in now may cause a headache later.
❌ Avoid using a chip or taking a hit.
Gameweek 29 is not keeping two chevrons apart - it follows almost immediately after Gameweek 28, kicking off on Tuesday evening.
As per our self-imposed rules, we’ll see you 24h before that on Monday.
Stay lazy,
The LazyFPL Team.