🚨 GW25: The FPL cheat sheet 🧠

⏰ Gameweek 25’s deadline is Friday, 6th February, 18:30 GMT ⏰

🚨 CONFIRMED: Arsenal (bre, wol) and Wolves (not, ARS) will both play twice in Double Gameweek 26.

⛔️ CONFIRMED: Arsenal, Wolves, Man City and Crystal Palace will blank in Gameweek 31.

🤕 The injured Bukayo Saka is targeting a Gameweek 27 return vs Spurs.

🤦‍♂️ Anthony Gordon picked up a hamstring injury in the Carabao semi-final. The severity is currently unknown.

🤝 Jørgen Strand Larsen moves to Crystal Palace from Wolves.

Alright?

Gameweek 24 was a redemption song for many FPL managers, but with far fewer Wailers. We needed some popular players to score points, and for once, a few of them actually went and bloody did it.

Your attention will now doubtless be focused on the upcoming Double Gameweek 26, which we’re going to discuss in this email, but it’s important we don’t neglect the middle child, Gameweek 25, in the process. At Lazy, we love all of our kids equally.

Which is just as well, because there’s plenty to navigate this week. A tricky captaincy decision, an injury to one of the priciest midfielders in the game, and the ever-present Whiff of the Wildcard (rumour has it that’s what they’re calling the next Zelda game).

It’s time to excuse yourself for a few minutes. Gameweek 25 awaits.

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Lazy Summary - Arsenal and Man City reach the Carabao Cup final.

Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea

⚽️ Goals: Kai Havertz
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Declan Rice

A relatively comfortable progression to the final for Arsenal. Chelsea defended resolutely but were unable to forge any decent opportunities.

Cole Palmer was used as a substitute after playing 90 minutes in Gameweek 24.

Man City 3-1 Newcastle

⚽️ Goals: Omar Marmoush (2), Tijjani Reijnders, Anthony Elanga
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Antoine Semenyo (2), Malick Thiaw

Another game in which Erling Haaland started on the bench, and another game in which Marmoush scored in his absence. Anthony Gordon came off injured with what looked like a hamstring injury. The severity of that remains unknown at the time of sending.

Lazy summary: No. Remain calm.

For those of you who need to hear this: Double Gameweeks do their utmost to tempt managers into making bad decisions. Suddenly, every move feels like a great idea. Arsenal are playing twice, you say? Hand me that cigarette. Let’s get married. This semi-detached bungalow in Great Yarmouth has no onward chain.

Our job is to remain calm, remember the mission, and only buy the players who will positively impact our FPL season. Piece of piss.

We’re lucky that the first double gameweek of the season features the best team in the league right now. It’s never been a terrible idea to buy Arsenal players. Nobody is waking up next to Jurriën Timber and thinking, “Oh man, what did I do last night?”

But try to resist the urge to triple-up on Wolves players just for the sake of the double. There will be a bigger and better double than Gameweek 26, and plenty of opportunity to get giddy between now and the end of the season.

Lazy summary: Arsenal players are a must. If you’re going for a Wolves player, their defence shows some promise.

A quick reminder of what Double Gameweek 26 looks like:

Arsenal play Brentford (A) and Wolves (A)

Wolves play Nottingham Forest (A) and Arsenal (H)

(For the uninitiated, a double gameweek is when at least one team has two fixtures squeezed into a one-gameweek window. In theory, it means more points. In practice, it means chaos, drama and, usually, misery.)

It also means you have two free transfers between now and Double Gameweek 26. How should you use them?

The good managers own Arsenal players.

You probably have at least two Arsenal players. David Raya, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber and Declan Rice are all owned by more than 25% of FPL managers, and the now-injured Bukayo Saka was popular amongst the hipster elite.

If you only own two, you have two options:

1) Prepare to compete against plenty of managers who own three.
2) Buy another Arsenal player.

The conventional wisdom suggests we should roll a transfer before a double gameweek if we can, so we can make wholesale changes ahead of the double if needed. That’s absolutely fine.

But with Arsenal playing Sunderland at home this week, bringing an extra player in now doesn’t feel like a terrible move either.

Which Arsenal players?

Pick any three of the aforementioned Raya, Gabriel, Timber and Rice. These are the most dependable options as far as minutes are concerned, and will also be the most-owned Arsenal players going into the double.

An interesting punt here could be Noni Madueke. Be warned: he’s yet to complete a full Premier League game in an Arsenal shirt. But with Saka likely out until Gameweek 27, and Madueke more than filling his shoes in recent games, the stage feels set for some sort of coming-of-Arsenal performance.

In other words, he’s got great xVibes.

What about Wolves?

Double Gameweeks have a funny way of throwing up poetic surprises. Given the fact that Wolves are bottom of the table and Arsenal are top, it would be fitting of FPL lore for Wolves’ players to outscore Arsenal’s players in Double Gameweek 26.

Of course, we won’t and shouldn’t build our teams around this hypothesis. But it does beg the question: Should we buy any Wolves players at all?

If you do, look to their defence. There is but one statistical anomaly we can find that supports the Wolves case, and it’s this: over the last six gameweeks, they have a better Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) than every team other than Liverpool.

That’s right: Wolves’ defence has been better, statistically speaking, than Arsenal’s over the last six gameweeks.

Hugo Bueno is fit, plays 90 minutes and gets the occasional assist. He could be a fun pick. If you’re feeling brave and have a spare forward slot, Mateus Mané (£4.6m) is their most promising attacker.

Lazy summary: Stick to the plan. Consider a Triple Captain in Double Gameweek 26. Hold your Wildcard this week if you can.

We discussed this in more depth a few weeks ago, but memories are short in FPL (unless it’s the memory of that time everyone triple-captained Emmanuel Dennis in 2022, only for him to get sent off in the first of his two games. The streets, B-roads and cul-de-sacs will never forget).

Here’s a quick, lazy reminder of the predicted fixture schedule and the chip strategy we’re advising:

Double Gameweek 26 - Possible Triple Captain
Blank Gameweek 31 - Possible Free Hit
Gameweek 32 - Pre-Bench Boost Wildcard
Double Gameweek 33 or 36 - Possible Bench Boost
Blank Gameweek 34 - Possible Free Hit

If we count Double Gameweek 33/36 as one (it’ll probably be one or the other, rather than both), it means, along with Double Gameweek 26, we only really have two opportunities to get maximum value from the Triple Captain and the Bench Boost.

This makes Double Gameweek 26 a good time to use the Triple Captain. We’ll discuss player options in next week’s newsletter.

Should I Wildcard this week?

We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: The Wildcard is best paired with a Bench Boost. It is the Sauvignon Blanc to the Bench Boost’s goat’s cheese. The hobnob to its tea. The Mark to its Lard.

So, Gameweek 25 is not a tactically astute time to use the Wildcard. It might be what’s right for your team, so y’know, don’t let us stop you. But it’s not - and we’d use air quotes here if we were sat with you in the pub - “optimal”.

Lazy summary: It’s Bruno Fernandes.

It’s strange to be writing a name other than Erling Haaland in the Lazy summary of this section. We can almost feel the laptop's keys pushing back in protest.

But for the next two gameweeks, the Norse God will not be the most popular captain amongst active managers.

In steps Bruno Fernandes - the most consistent performer in recent times - who has a relatively kind fixture at home to Spurs to contend with.

This feels like the sort of game that promises goals, and if Man United are scoring goals, Fernandes is invariably involved.

This is particularly true under Michael Carrick: Fernandes is averaging 8.33 points per game under his new manager, having played Man City and Arsenal in those three games in all.

Haaland, meanwhile, will travel to Anfield in Gameweek 25. Not only does Liverpool have the best defensive stats over the last six gameweeks, but Anfield remains the only Premier League stadium at which Haaland is yet to score.

The Professor is keen to build on an incredible gameweek last week, and he reckons Elliot Anderson is the man to do it. He’ll be bringing him in for either Rayan Cherki or Yankuba Minteh (depending on press conference information).

Eli Junior Kroupi could still make his way off the bench and into the starting 11, but that’s a decision he’ll be making closer to the deadline.

Bruno Fernandes gets the armband. It almost certainly won’t matter, but Gabriel is trusted with the vice.

🔄 The best Bukayo Saka replacements are Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Antoine Semenyo, Florian Wirtz, Enzo Fernández and, because of his double, Declan Rice.

🐝 Igor Thiago has excellent fixtures after Arsenal in Double Gameweek 26 (BRI, bur, bou, WOL, lee, EVE, FUL). He’s the third-most transferred-out player this week, but that looks premature.

🔵 Whilst Arsenal and Wolves will play out their missed fixture in Blank Gameweek 31 in Double Gameweek 26, this isn’t the case for Man City and Crystal Palace (who are also missing BGW31). Both of these teams will have a double at some point.

Double Gameweek 26 starts next Tuesday, so we’ll be back on Monday evening with a newsletter that definitely won’t be double the size. That’s not how it works.

Stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.