🚨 GW24: Your FPL cheat sheet 🤝

⏰ Gameweek 24’s deadline is Saturday, 31st January, 13:30 GMT ⏰

🚨 Double Gameweek 26 and Blank Gameweek 31 have been announced.

🤕 Patrick Dorgu will be out for around 10 weeks.

👀 William Saliba and Jurriën Timber were not in Arsenal’s UCL squad, but Arteta has said they’re okay.

👍 Bruno Guimarães was an unused substitute in Newcastle’s UCL game.

🤦‍♂️ Ollie Watkins was substituted early after picking up a hamstring injury in Villa’s Europa League game. “He felt something, but not a lot” - Emery.

🩼 Jack Grealish is “probably” out for the remainder of the season - Moyes.

🤝 Adama Traoré (£5.1m) joins West Ham, James Ward-Prowse (£5.6m) joins Burnley (loan), Douglas Luiz joins Aston Villa (loan), Oscar Bobb (£5.1m) joins Fulham.

Alright?

When the history of the 25/26 season is documented by the FPL annalists (that’s two n’s - behave), a few extra pages will be dedicated to Gameweek 23.

If you captained the benched Erling Haaland, perhaps it’ll be some consolation that you were one of seven million managers to do so. His unproductive 17-minute cameo poses an existential threat to his status as the Norse-God-perma-captain-robot we’ve come to depend upon.

But it’s Phil Foden who has taken the brunt of the transfer wrath. At the time of sending this newsletter, he’s the most-transferred-out player; a sign, perhaps, that managers are willing to forgive Haaland’s transgressions for now.

At a time when finding anything reliable in FPL is a challenge, we’ll do what we’ve done for the last ~4 years: Tell you everything you need to know ahead of the deadline. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.

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The UCL and Europa League group stages concluded on Wednesday night.

Here are the gory details:

Champions League - Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Spurs and Chelsea through to the last 16. Newcastle will compete in a play-off.

Arsenal 3-2 Kairat Almaty

⚽️ Goals: Viktor Gyökeres, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Gyökeres, Havertz, Ben White

Arsenal consolidated their spot at the top of the Champions League group stage with eight wins from eight games against Kairat Almaty.

Gabriel and Bukayo Saka were on the bench but rested for this game, whilst William Saliba and Jurriën Timber were omitted from the squad altogether. Arteta said he was using it as an opportunity to manage minutes, but they’re okay.

Frankfurt 0-2 Spurs

⚽️ Goals: Kolo Muani, Dominic Solanke
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Cristian Romero

Another much-needed win for Frank, who is turning Spurs into a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. Another goal for Solanke and yet another attacking return for Romero.

Liverpool 6-0 Qarabag

⚽️ Goals: Alexis Mac Allister (2), Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Mohamed Salah, Federico Chiesa
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Virgil van Dijk (3), Ekitike, Dominic Szoboszlai

This was the sort of game owners of Liverpool assets have been daydreaming about. Van Dijk’s would-be FPL haul is unthinkable.

The big news - other than the massive win - is that Jeremie Frimpong was injured and withdrawn in the 4th minute.

Man City 2-0 Galatasaray

⚽️ Goals: Rayan Cherki, Erling Haaland
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Jérémy Doku (2)

Haaland started and played 90 here, scoring his first open-play goal for Man City since before Christmas. An impressive Doku created both goals, but was withdrawn due to injury after 37 minutes. Man City scrape into the top eight, which lightens their fixture load.

PSG 1-1 Newcastle

⚽️ Goals: Joe Willock
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Dan Burn

The only English team not to qualify for the last 16 automatically, Newcastle did well to come away from this game with a draw. Nick Pope saved a penalty, and PSG had 25 shots.

Still, Newcastle rested key players (Anthony Gordon and Yoane Wissa started on the bench). Crucially, Bruno Guimarães was also in the squad, but didn’t feature.

Napoli 2-3 Chelsea

⚽️ Goals: Enzo Fernández, João Pedro (2)
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Reece James, Cole Palmer (2)

A great result for Chelsea, in which Palmer was started on the bench due to his fitness. His second-half contribution from the bench proved crucial in turning the game around. Pedro continues his impressive form. Trevoh Chalobah started on the bench but featured for 31 minutes.

Liam Rosenior: “I’m going to rotate because I don’t have just 11 players, I have 22 outstanding players”.

Europa League - Aston Villa qualifies for the last 16, Nottingham Forest will compete in a play-off.

Aston Villa 3-2 Salzburg

⚽️ Goals: Morgan Rogers, Tyrone Mings, Jamaldeen Jimoh
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Emi Buendía, Matty Cash, Kadan Young

Villa’s comeback from 2-0 down cements their place in the top eight of the Europa League, but it came at a cost: Ollie Watkins was substituted holding his hamstring on 35 minutes. The severity of that injury remains unclear, though Emery has said the following:

"He felt something, but not a lot. We will test him. Hopefully, we are thinking that is not a lot. I don't know if he will be available for Sunday."

Nottingham Forest 4-0 Ferencváros

⚽️ Goals: Igor Jesus (2), James McAtee, Own Goal
🦮 (FPL) Assists: Ibrahim Sangaré, Ryan Yates (2), Dan Ndoye

Forest were mathematically certain of a play-off place before this game. Still, a 4-0 win will do their confidence no harm. Elliot Anderson was suspended for this game.

Lazy summary: Because there aren’t any obvious replacements, and not owning him remains a huge risk.

Last week, we suggested that Erling Haaland ought to be your captain at home against Wolves.

We didn’t entertain the idea that he might not start altogether. In other seasons, such a dramatic turn of events might’ve prompted a mass sell-off, particularly after four blanks from his prior five gameweeks.

And yet, at the time of sending, Haaland doesn’t even make the top five most-transferred-out players this week. Barring something dramatic, he looks certain to remain over 70% owned by the Gameweek 24 deadline.

This is worthy of some examination. If we can determine why managers are retaining Haaland, we’ll be better able to pinpoint whether and when it’s time to sell.

Why is Haaland still in most of our teams?

In the first 17 gameweeks of the season, the Norse God amassed a ridiculous 19 goals and four assists.

In the six gameweeks since then, he’s managed just one goal.

If the season had started in Gameweek 18, we’d have sold Haaland by now. So why are managers keeping him?

As we see it, there are three key reasons:

1) We know what he’s capable of.
2) There are no obvious areas to spend the excess funds.
3) There are no obvious forwards worthy of replacing him.

(1) is pretty self-explanatory. Haaland is capable of humiliating teams, even if he isn’t at the moment. At 72% owned, it’s still too much of a risk for top managers to go without him.

(2) and (3) are two sides of the same coin. Until there are other expensive players showing consistent form, it’s hard to justify getting rid of the guy who can score against literally anyone.

All of which is to say: Haaland is still the most exciting option upfront. He’s probably who you’d replace Haaland with.

So, what should you do?

The smart move is to keep Haaland for now. His presence in your team is like expensive life insurance - it keeps you in the game should the best Premier League forward in a generation happen to find his form again.

Lazy summary: The teams doubling and blanking will depend on the results of the EFL Cup semi-final next week.

Double Gameweek 26 and Blank Gameweek 31 have been announced by the three witches who decide when the rearranged Premier League fixtures take place.

The teams that play twice in Gameweek 26 will blank in Gameweek 31. If it helps, any Stranger Things fans amongst you can picture Blank Gameweek 31 as the Upside-Down version of Double Gameweek 26: I.e. similar, but shite.

We’ll know who doubles and blanks after next Tuesday’s second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final between Arsenal and Chelsea. Arsenal won the first leg 3-2, so they’re the strong favourites to progress to the final.

(An obligatory doff of the cap to Ben Crellin, the fixture maestro behind these updates.)

If Arsenal get to the EFL Cup final:

Arsenal vs Brentford (a) and Wolves (a)
Wolves vs Forest (a) and Arsenal (h)

Arsenal and Wolves then blank in Gameweek 31.

If Chelsea get to the EFL Cup final:

Chelsea vs Leeds (h) and Everton (a)
Everton vs Bournemouth (h) and Chelsea (h)

Chelsea and Everton then blank in Gameweek 31.

What about the other semi-final?

Man City and Newcastle feature in the other EFL Cup semi-final, and whoever progresses will also miss Blank Gameweek 31. It’s unclear, as yet, when that rearranged fixture will be scheduled, but Double Gameweek 26 is unlikely for reasons that lazy managers needn’t concern themselves with.

We’ll cover the implications of the semi-final outcomes next week. Try not to pass out from all the excitement in the meantime.

Lazy summary: The good managers are selling him, and it’s easy to see why.

Unlike Erling Haaland, FPL managers have been less sympathetic to Phil Foden’s surprise Gameweek 23 benching.

His ownership has plummeted to 18% (at the time of sending), and he’s the most-transferred-out player this week by some margin.

It’s hard to offer a compelling defence. This is how Harvey Weinstein’s lawyer must’ve felt. Firstly, his underlying stats are poor. Over the past six gameweeks, he's registered the same expected goal involvements (1.8) for Man City as Antoine Semenyo, despite the latter having played only two Premier League games for his new club.

Secondly, his actual FPL points (seven blanks in a row) are hard to forgive for a midfielder who still costs north of £8m.

But perhaps the most compelling reason to part ways with Foden is that there are so many alternatives in his price bracket who are performing well. Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Florian Wirtz, Enzo Fernandez, and the aforementioned Semenyo are all viable replacements.

Lazy summary: Erling Haaland is the safer pick, Bruno Fernandes offers a viable alternative.

We’re reaching that point in the season where a viable alternative to the status quo could be the sensible play, depending on how happy you are with your current overall rank and/or mini-league standing.

That doesn’t mean captaining Iliman Ndiaye every week, but it means capitalising on gameweeks like this one, where the captaincy decision isn’t as obvious.

The case for Haaland

There’s nothing like a fixture against Spurs to reverse any issues in form you might be facing. Just as West Ham needed a win back in Gameweek 22, now Haaland needs some Premier League goals.

If you’re happy with your overall rank or mini-league position and want to defend it, captaining Erling Haaland is the safe option. He’ll be the most-captained player this week against a Spurs side that has a poorer record at home than on the road this season.

The case for Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes at home to Fulham is a good captaincy option for those of you who are playing catch-up.

At 25% owned, he’ll provide a significant rank boost for captainers if he does haul, though simply owning him should be enough for those unwilling to take the gamble.

The Professor has two free transfers, £1.7m in the bank and a bit of a headache.

Whilst he’s set to swap Bukayo Saka for Bryan Mbeumo, he hasn’t pulled the trigger yet.

But another transfer beckons. Does he bring in Antoine Semenyo? Does he finally bring in Gabriel?

Bruno Fernandes gets the armband. As discussed in our captaincy section, this is because the Prof needs to start playing more aggressively to make up ground. He’s willing to accept some risk for the potential upside of a Fernandes captaincy haul.

Here’s his current team prior to any transfers:

You know the line: LazyFPL Premium members will get updated on Prof’s moves as they happen via the WhatsApp Broadcast Channel.

1) Lucas Paquetá will leave West Ham for Flamengo (Romano).

2) Raheem Sterling has left Chelsea FC by mutual agreement.

3) Some managers are considering a Wildcard this week. Whilst the unique circumstances of your team might require one, the top managers are saving theirs to better capitalise on the double and blank gameweeks.

The Premier League scheduling Gods have blessed us with a Friday night thriller next week: Leeds vs Nottingham Forest. As such, we’ll be in your inbox on Thursday, 24 hours before the deadline.

Expect a lazy-friendly deep dive into Double Gameweek 26 planning, and no doubt more Guardiola-induced despair.

Stay lazy.

The LazyFPL Team.