The stuff you should know
⏰ Gameweek 12’s deadline is Saturday, 22nd November, 11:00 GMT ⏰
🤕 Arsenal “continuing to assess” Gabriel. Nearly every source is reporting a 1-month absence at a minimum, but we’re still waiting on something official.
🤦 Antoine Semenyo returned to Bournemouth early with a ligament strain. His recovery time remains unclear.
🤝 Rob Edwards is the new Wolves manager.
🔴 Alisson is expected to be back this weekend. Florian Wirtz and Connor Bradley are out.
🎤 Slot: We have five defenders available for 7 games in 22 days.
⛔ Benjamin Šeško is set to be out until Gameweek 18. Rodrigo Muniz will need surgery on his hamstring and will be back early next year.
👀 Keep reading for a Free Hit draft you can copy (if you want).
Alright?
Given crap international breaks are the butt of 95% of our (equally crap) jokes, it’s almost disappointing that this one was actually rather fantastic. But at what cost?
Well, this cost:
Guehi, Enzo, Neto and Alisson should be available for GW12.
There are so many yellow flags, it’s like Coldplay were the sponsors of the international break. We’ll use some of today’s newsletter to explain how to navigate all of that. We won’t have another international break until March now, and there are 10 (yeah, ten) gameweeks crammed into the next 46 days, too.
It’s a lot of FPL. If only you were subscribed to a newsletter that exists purely to make sure you don’t miss anything important.
Much to get through this week, so let’s get cracking.
Fotmob just works for FPL managers.
It’s got to the point where we use Fotmob for more than just instant goal alerts. Even when we’re watching a game, we still have one eye on it.
That’s because it gives us in-game FPL points, live defensive contributions and underlying stats, all whilst keeping us up to date on live scores in other leagues (yes, believe it or not, we have a St Johnstone fan and a Pompey fan hidden amongst our ranks).
They’re good enough to support this newsletter, so if you want a free livescores app that feels built for FPL managers, give them a look:
Gameweek 12’s fixtures.
What happened during the international break?
Lazy summary: Gabriel and Semenyo are the big casualties. Haaland, Fernandes and Woltemade among the best performers.
The high-profile injuries
Gabriel: Groin injury, possibly 1-2 months
Of all the Gabriels at Arsenal, this was surely the one we most wanted to stay out of trouble. Such is the significance of Gabriel’s injury that he’s going to get his own section (spoiler: it follows this section).
Antoine Semenyo: Sprained ligament, unknown status.
At 63% owned, Semenyo is also getting his own section. He was withdrawn mid-game and sent packing back to Bournemouth, where the severity of his injury is still being assessed.
The top performers
Erling Haaland - 4 goals in 2 games
Bruno Fernandes - 3 goals in 1 game
Nick Woltemade - 3 goals in 2 games
Troy Parrott - 5 goals in 2 games (you can’t pick him in FPL, but he deserves a mention anyway).
Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Estêvão, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Hugo Ekitike, Martin Zubimendi, Dominik Szoboszlai, Joško Gvardiol and Kieran Tierney were amongst those who managed to score a goal over the international break, too.
What should you do with Gabriel and Semenyo?
Gabriel
Lazy summary: Remove him. But don’t remove every Arsenal defender you own - they should still do a job without him.
A clear update on Gabriel’s injury status has so far remained Out of Reach. But hey, Dreams can come true, and we’re hoping to hear something conclusive soon enough.
Our main font of information so far has been David Ornstein, who is reliable enough, but not an official source. It’s looking like 1-2 months.
One month = Gabriel returns for Gameweek 17
Two months = Gabriel returns for Gameweek 22
Barring a miracle, he has to go.
Possible Gabriel replacements
Virgil Van Dijk - Great fixtures, great DEFCON numbers, set piece threat. Slot’s concerns about fitness and fixture congestion are worrisome, but Virgil is as nailed as a defender can be.
Daniel Muñoz - Fantastic underlying attacking stats, nice run of fixtures.
Marcos Senesi - Great defensive fixtures, consistent DEFCONs
Joachim Andersen - Cheap, great DEFCON numbers, good rotational option
Another Arsenal DEF - Best defence in the league, placeholder until Gabriel returns - beware of rotation with a tight schedule.
Does Gabriel’s absence impact Arsenal as a whole?
Arsenal have the best defence in the league, and Gabriel has been their best defender in pretty much every meaningful metric.
Losing him will hurt. But perhaps not as much as some Arsenal fans will fear.
The last time Arsenal were without Gabriel for an extended period of time was the end of last season, from Gameweeks 31-38. It’s a small sample size, but Arsenal’s defence was about the same during this. They conceded an extra 0.2 goals per game without him, but also conceded fewer big chances.
Antoine Semenyo
The most-owned midfielder in the game (by a massive 30% margin, btw), Semenyo has done the double. The shite double, that is, missing a penalty and then getting injured on international duty.
Iraola’s presser is at midday (GMT) on Friday, so hopefully we’ll have some clarity on his status before the deadline. For now, he’s definitely worth holding on to. If he is fit, you’ll want him for that home fixture against West Ham.
Also, he got engaged during the international break, and seemed more than comfortable getting down on one knee. So there’s that.
The Free Hit of dreams.
Lazy summary: The Free Hit will be popular this week.
If your team is looking a bit peaky, the Free Hit is your plastic cup full of Night Nurse.
We expect a lot of managers to take their swig this weekend, banking on the assumption that these yellow flags are short-lived precautions.
Which begs the question: What does a good Free Hit look like this week?
We asked our team of FPL boffins, which is comprised of some of the best managers in the world and includes an actual hall-of-famer. The braintrust immediately held an emergency meeting and came back to us with this:
It somehow manages to fit in Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka, Bruno Fernandes and a premium defence, too. If you can’t afford it, Fernandes > Bryan Mbeumo is an easy swap.
Is it time to play catch-up?
Every week, LazyFPL Premium members can submit questions to our “Pundits’ Postbox”. Their answers are posted on the Broadcast WhatsApp channel, so everyone can see them.
Anyway, this question gets asked a lot around this time of the season, so we thought we’d share the Professor’s answer.
Q: I’m 100 points behind my mini-league rival already. Should I be taking more risks with my transfers and captain decisions?
Prof’s Answer: We need to reframe how you view point deficits in mini-leagues, as in the wrong context, I can guarantee you it will lead to poor decisions.
While 100 points may seem like a lot right now, you only need to outperform your rival by 4 points per gameweek to finish above them come the end of the season.
Do not view it as 100 points, view it as 4 points per gameweek.
This will allow you to look at foundational improvements to your team rather than short-term, punty gambles.
Which scenario is more likely?
You somehow manage to pick the best performing differential captain each week, while the most popular and obvious captains consistently blank.
You grind out an average of four points per gameweek on your rival from now until the end of the season.
If you’re an engaged manager who is improving at this game (and you’re reading this, so I’m betting you are), you will inevitably make superior decisions over other managers. They may not be the kind of decisions that instantaneously net you 20+ points, but they will be the kind of decisions that grind you up rank week to week.
Do your best to ignore Overall Rank or point deficits right now. Just keep playing sensible FPL.
I can't guarantee you will win your mini-league, but I promise this will give you the best chance.
If you want this sort of wisdom (plus loads of other great benefits, like a £3k mini-league and two extra emails per week), it’s yours for the price of a cheap pint per month. Where else are you going to find phrases like “grind you up rank”?
The extra AFCON transfers.
Lazy summary: A reminder that in Gameweek 16, we’ll get five complimentary transfers.
A few newsletters ago, we reminded you of one of FPL’s new rules for this season: that ahead of AFCON, every FPL manager’s free transfer quota will be topped up to the maximum of five.
It’s a bit like the UK Government’s ill-fated Eat Out to Help Out scheme during COVID, only this handout is less likely to endanger the elderly and immunocompromised.
If you take nothing else from this section, take this: the best way to capitalise on this uncharacteristic generosity is to ensure you don’t have any free transfers banked by the time we get our handouts. After all, if you’ve already got four in the bank, you’ll only get one extra.
There are two prevailing approaches:
1) Save and Spaff (SAS).
Ah, yes, a classic manoeuvre. The SAS involves saving up your free transfers between now and Gameweek 15, then spending them all at once in Gameweek 15 in a sort of mini-Wildcard, girls-just-wanna-have-fun shopping spree, then getting all of those transfers handed back to you by the FPL Gods in Gameweek 16.
Gameweek 12: Bank
Gameweek 13: Bank
Gameweek 14: Bank
Gameweek 15: Make at least four free transfers
Gameweek 16: Get your free transfers topped up to five
2) Dribble them out.
Dribbling them out is what it says on the tin. Rather than saving them up for one triumphant crescendo, instead, you spend them as and when you fancy, improving your team gradually and ensuring you’ve spent all your free transfers by Gameweek 16.
There’s no “best option” here. The route you choose will depend on your team's needs. Some of you will plan to SAS, but injuries, suspensions and rotation might force your hand. Others might plan to dribble, only to find that your team doesn’t need regular interventions.
The best captain for Gameweek 12.
Lazy summary: It’s Haaland.
In any of the last 8 seasons, Mohamed Salah at home against a poor Nottingham Forest would surely have made this a very short section.
But it’s a testament to Erling Haaland’s form (and, perhaps, Salah’s lack of it) that despite the Egyptian’s great fixture, it’s Haaland who gets our vote.
Newcastle have kept two clean sheets at home this season, but they were against Wolves and Nottingham Forest. They conceded three at St James’ to Liverpool and two against Arsenal.
And besides, it’s the Norse God. When he’s in his 40-goals-a-season form, you don’t shop around, you do as he commands.
As a Gabriel owner, the Professor’s move this gameweek is pre-ordained.
He also owns Antoinie Semenyo, but as per our advice earlier, he’ll keep him unless he’s ruled out of Gameweek 12.
The favourite to replace Gabriel is Virgil van Dijk, but Slot’s comments in Friday’s press conference have him worried. You’ll need to be a premium member to find out his final decision.
Erling Haaland gets the armband. Here’s his team as it stands 👇
Player form (Last 6)
Team form (Last 6)
Are you subbed to the OPTA newsletter?
Opta’s free, weekly newsletter is becoming a staple for us.
They use a ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ format (hence the name) with one mad stat, a captivating data visualisation, and a fun quiz at the end.
In their last newsletter, they discussed England’s statistically ridiculous World Cup qualifying campaign, in which they won all eight games, didn’t concede a single goal, accrued over 20.8 xG and conceded just 2.12 xGA (expected goals against).
Anyway, it’s consistently a great read each Tuesday, and it’s totally free to sign-up.
Other stuff we found interesting
1) Cole Palmer was close to a return, but then fractured his toe in a freak accident at home.
2) Daniel Muñoz had to leave his international camp due to a family emergency, but this has apparently been taken care of.
Right. No early kick-offs next week, so we’ll be in your inbox at 13:30 GMT next Friday. Try to contain your excitement.
Stay lazy.
The LazyFPL Team.