Fixture Swings To Target From FPL Gameweek 7

William Shakespeare said: “To be, or not to be, that is the question.” No. The real question is form or fixtures. Well, I think fixtures breed form, so let’s take a look at five teams with the best fixtures over the next six gameweeks.

Next 6: WHU, ful, CRY, bur, sun, TOT

Unlike the league table, where Arsenal repeatedly come second, they find themselves atop the fixture difficulty ticker for the next six gameweeks.

Arsenal have started the season REALLY strongly. You could argue they’re favourites to win the PL, and they currently rank second for both goals scored and goals conceded. No, seriously—if the Trojans had this defence, they’d never have lost the war. Arteta would’ve proposed to Helen before realising he’d rather get another CB instead.

I think an Arsenal triple-up in defence is pretty feasible and, honestly, makes plenty of sense from a game theory POV. Five clean sheets in this run isn’t impossible, and the likes of Saliba and Gabriel are solid for BPS and goals respectively. 

Gyökeres is a perfectly fine option in attack (regardless of his previous blanks). He should be a confirmed starter (and pen taker) until Havertz is back, and he’s settling into the Premier League’s physicality well. Saka is, of course, a really good option too, although his minutes aren’t what they once were.

Top three assets: Saka, Gabriel, Gyökeres   

Next 6: BHA, sun, BUR, ful, che, CRY

With a team name as intimidating as Wolves, you just CANNOT be last in the league. But I suppose Wolverhampton simply wandered into the relegation spots.

For however bad Wolves have been, they’ve had some pretty tough fixtures and been quite unlucky with injuries. Strand Larsen being back is a huuuuuge gift, and Wolves look to be shifting to more of a flat back four, which makes their play look all the more cohesive.

I’d say Wolves’ fixtures look slightly better from a defensive POV than an offensive one, but there really isn’t much in it. Strand Larsen is, objectively, one of the best picks in the game though. A nailed-on, penalty-taking, 14-goal-scoring £6.4m FWD? Sign me up.

Top three assets: Strand Larsen, Arias, Krejčí 

Next 6: wol, NEW, mun, LEE, cry, BRE 

Brighton reportedly have a data-driven system for everything—from buying new players to even hiring managers. For the first time ever, we’ve cracked their two most important criteria for hiring a new one.

Criteria 1: Does he rotate his team just to bench the players you have in your FPL team?
Criteria 2: Does he give vague injury updates to leave you in the dark?

Ding, ding, ding: we have Fabian Hürzeler.

Brighton’s fixtures are MUCH better from an offensive perspective than a defensive one. I honestly can’t see them keeping more than one clean sheet in this run, because carving through Brighton’s midfield is like slicing butter with a hot knife.

While they’ve looked a bit tepid in attack, Brighton are ranked 4th for xG in the league this season, and they get their wingers involved pretty frequently. That’s why I really like Minteh and Mitoma as picks—both get isolated and run freely at opposition defences. Beyond them, Georginio Rutter is also a viable option, just one with large(ish) error bars. He’s a 70-minute man, give or take 5 minutes, and his pen share is anywhere between 0–40%. So he has the upside, but also a really low floor.

Top three assets: Mitoma, Minteh, Georginio

Next 6: LIV, nfo, SUN, tot, WOL, bur

London Stamford Bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down 🎵

Three red cards in four games is not a pretty sight, is it? Nor is the loss of Cole Palmer, and consequently, any competence in this Chelsea squad. Too harsh? Alright.

Palmer’s reportedly out until after the international break, meaning Chelsea’s penalties are up for grabs. The two main candidates are Enzo Fernández—who I now actually think is a pretty good FPL asset—and João Pedro. Both are nailed on, with high xMins (especially JP, given he’s suspended for Chelsea’s next game), and both pop up in fairly decent positions quite frequently.

Enzo actually posted a career-high npxG+xAG/90 this season too (0.58), and while JP seems to have reverted to his previous non–shot-taking self, his underlying data remains strong, and future returns aren’t far away.

Top three assets: Enzo, João Pedro, Caicedo

Next 6: TOT, bur, WHU, bha, nfo, AVL

Leeds’ 24–25 season was statistically one of the most dominant Championship sides of all time, and this was with ILLAN MESLIER in net. I applaud you, Daniel Farke.

I think Leeds’ fixtures are far better from an offensive point of view than a defensive one, which is good because they have two particularly strong MID/FWD options. First, we have Anton Stach—a £5.0m, nailed-on, set-piece-taking, attacking threat guy. Stach is playing a lot more offensively for Leeds than he did at Hoffenheim, so his xGI looks pretty great, but his DEFCON numbers have gone wayyyyy down. I don’t think they’ll stay that low, though, so with an uptick there while maintaining his offensive threat… whew.

The next person is… Dominic Calvert-Lewin. What could possibly go wrong? A lot. A lot could go wrong. But until a lot goes wrong, DCL is a £5.5m FWD who’s on pens, who’s played 69–89–89 minutes in his last three, with some really decent underlying data. I mean, PTSD aside, a talismanic FWD facing some pretty average defenses over the next few games sounds good to me.

Top three assets: Stach, Calvert-Lewin, Gudmundsson