Five FPL Differentials To Punt On Before AFCON

There are only three weeks left before we’re blessed (cursed) with an extra 5 FTs to compensate for the start of AFCON, which means now is the time to be a bit… spendy with your FTs.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at who the best differentials and three-week punts are.

Next 3: LEE, ful, SUN
Form: 4, 3, 2
TSB: 4.9%

Foden’s underlying data has fallen faster than Man City’s integrity ever could. In the three seasons before this one, he was running at an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.54. He’s now walking at 0.35 instead. Yikes.

Even so, Foden has some really good fixtures coming up, playing three mid-table defences along the way. City’s attack (or basically just Erling Haaland) has been ticking along nicely too, ranking second in the league for xG.

While I don’t expect Foden to reach his previous numbers, I believe an uptick is a reasonable ask, and I think he’s the best differential to own until we get the AFCON FT boost.

Next 3: whu, SUN, lee
Form: 2, 1, 2
TSB: 5.8%

Spelling that correctly on the first try has to be one of the more impressive things I’ve done.

While Szoboszlai is a really good pick with really good fixtures, there are two important caveats:

Point one is a worry, of course, but I do think he’s easily benchable for most teams if he does get suspended. As for point two, Szoboszlai has already seen a 49% fall in his npxG+xAG/90 compared to last season, and playing RB will only worsen this.

That said, he does take some set-pieces and has been running at 11.5 DEFCONs/90, meaning you can expect him to clear the threshold most weeks.

I think the upside of this pick outweighs the downside, so I’d be happy to go with Szoboszlai as long as you don’t have too many other fires in your team.

Next 3: BUR, ars, tot
Form: 1, 8, 2
TSB: 1.2%

Speaking of fires, Kevin Schade is also on 4 YCs. That’s a bit schadey, isn’t it.

Realistically, the only reason Schade’s even worth considering is because he plays Burnley (H) this week. So far he looks to be a 90-minute man, and while his underlying data is a lot worse than last season (this is becoming a theme), he’s projected to do this well because how can anyone possibly do badly vs. Burnley?

I don’t mind him as a long(er) term hold either, but I’d prefer buying him this week only to sell in the next.

Next 3: nfo, AVL, WHU
Form: 11, 3, 9
TSB: 6.5%

Yankuba Minteh’s done the impossible! He’s nailed down a starting spot in Hürzeler’s constantly rotating wheel of horror!

Brighton’s entire offence sorta hinges on Minteh’s ability to be competent, and this season he’s been nothing short of brilliant. He’s running at an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.49 and already has 8 returns in FPL. Plus, beyond just starting, Minteh seems to be at least an 84-minute man, which, for the price and attacking team strength, makes him a very solid pick.

Playing three bottom-half defences in his next three fixtures doesn’t hurt either.

Next 3: LEE, ful, SUN
Form: 1, 6, 2
TSB: 5.4%

City have the second-best defence in the league based on xGA, and play three bottom-half defences in the next three. Need I say more?

Gvardiol’s attacking threat is way down, and he never really hits the DEFCON threshold, so you are effectively just buying him for the clean sheets. That said, he is the most nailed-on City DEF you can find (although O’Reilly may be climbing up that list), and is a pretty good Gabriel replacement if you still have him.